WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain +96h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
4% 1% at 20Z 0 0 12
9% 1% at 22Z 0 0 12
3% 1% at 00Z 0 0 12
51% 7% at 22Z 4 6 2
9% 4% at 11Z 0 0 12
25% 17% at 13Z 0 0 18
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=61%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
9% 29% —
19% 57% —
20% 57% —
17% 57% —
14% 43% —
16% 43% —
30% 71% —
17% 43% —
20% 71% —
4% 67% confident dry
4% 67% confident dry
7% 50% confident dry
8% 50% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
3% 14% —
1% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
11% 50% confident dry
6% 33% confident dry
5% 33% —
8% 50% —
14% 50% —
36% 43% —
41% 29% —
52% 29% —
50% 29% —
54% 29% —
61% 29% —
82% 43% —
72% 43% —
71% 43% —
59% 50% ambiguous
59% 67% ambiguous
52% 67% ambiguous
55% 83% ambiguous
60% 50% ambiguous
57% 50% ambiguous
64% 50% confident wet
70% 50% confident wet
68% 50% confident wet
67% 33% confident wet
34% 17% confident dry
31% 17% confident dry
14% 17% —
7% 17% —
9% 17% —
7% 14% —
4% 0% —
5% 0% —
6% 0% —
7% 0% —
8% 0% —
11% 0% —
12% 14% —
7% 0% —
6% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
8% 0% confident dry
8% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
12% 17% confident dry
20% 33% confident dry
16% 33% —
16% 33% —
19% 33% —
25% 33% confident dry
25% 33% confident dry
29% 33% confident dry
17% 33% —
23% 33% —
26% 33% —
24% 33% —
27% 33% —
25% 33% —
25% 33% confident dry
30% 50% confident dry
22% 50% confident dry
19% 50% confident dry
17% 33% confident dry
22% 33% confident dry
22% 33% confident dry
26% 33% confident dry
31% 33% confident dry
35% 33% confident dry
22% 33% confident dry
21% 33% confident dry
23% 33% confident dry
31% 33% confident dry
33% 33% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Bovey Tracey

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
2% 1% at 04Z 0 0 12
5% 0% at 22Z 0 0 12
1% 0% at 00Z 0 0 12
10% 1% at 22Z 0 0 12
3% 1% at 01Z 0 0 12
11% 6% at 03Z 0 0 18
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=53%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
6% 29% —
11% 57% —
12% 57% —
10% 57% —
7% 43% —
7% 43% —
17% 71% —
7% 43% —
7% 71% —
2% 67% confident dry
2% 67% confident dry
4% 50% confident dry
5% 50% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 17% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
1% 14% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
3% 50% confident dry
2% 33% confident dry
1% 33% —
2% 50% —
3% 50% —
4% 43% —
5% 29% —
7% 29% —
8% 29% —
8% 29% —
12% 29% —
30% 43% —
18% 43% —
11% 43% —
9% 50% confident dry
9% 67% confident dry
8% 67% confident dry
11% 83% confident dry
12% 50% confident dry
11% 50% confident dry
11% 50% confident dry
14% 50% confident dry
13% 50% confident dry
13% 33% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
2% 17% —
1% 17% —
1% 17% —
2% 14% —
1% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
4% 14% —
2% 0% —
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 17% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
6% 33% confident dry
5% 33% —
5% 33% —
6% 33% —
8% 33% confident dry
9% 33% confident dry
10% 33% confident dry
6% 33% —
7% 33% —
6% 33% —
6% 33% —
9% 33% —
9% 33% —
11% 33% confident dry
18% 50% confident dry
12% 50% confident dry
10% 50% confident dry
8% 33% confident dry
10% 33% confident dry
11% 33% confident dry
12% 33% confident dry
15% 33% confident dry
17% 33% confident dry
10% 33% confident dry
10% 33% confident dry
11% 33% confident dry
14% 33% confident dry
15% 33% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
4% 2% at 20Z 0 0 12
11% 1% at 22Z 0 0 12
4% 1% at 00Z 0 0 12
53% 9% at 22Z 3 9 0
10% 4% at 11Z 0 0 12
27% 19% at 13Z 0 4 14
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=67%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
9% 29% —
19% 57% —
23% 57% —
19% 57% —
16% 43% —
18% 43% —
36% 71% —
20% 43% —
26% 71% —
7% 67% confident dry
7% 67% confident dry
12% 50% confident dry
13% 50% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
4% 14% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
12% 50% confident dry
7% 33% confident dry
7% 33% —
12% 50% —
16% 50% —
38% 43% —
43% 29% —
54% 29% —
52% 29% —
57% 29% —
63% 29% —
83% 43% —
73% 43% —
72% 43% —
61% 50% ambiguous
61% 67% ambiguous
54% 67% ambiguous
57% 83% ambiguous
62% 50% ambiguous
60% 50% ambiguous
66% 50% ambiguous
71% 50% confident wet
69% 50% confident wet
69% 33% confident wet
37% 17% ambiguous
35% 17% ambiguous
16% 17% —
9% 17% —
10% 17% —
9% 14% —
5% 0% —
7% 0% —
7% 0% —
8% 0% —
9% 0% —
14% 0% —
15% 14% —
9% 0% —
8% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
7% 0% confident dry
7% 0% confident dry
11% 0% confident dry
11% 0% confident dry
8% 0% confident dry
16% 17% confident dry
23% 33% confident dry
18% 33% —
18% 33% —
21% 33% —
24% 33% confident dry
23% 33% confident dry
29% 33% confident dry
19% 33% —
26% 33% —
29% 33% —
28% 33% —
31% 33% —
30% 33% —
25% 33% confident dry
29% 50% confident dry
25% 50% confident dry
21% 50% confident dry
19% 33% confident dry
24% 33% confident dry
25% 33% confident dry
29% 33% confident dry
34% 33% ambiguous
38% 33% ambiguous
24% 33% confident dry
24% 33% confident dry
25% 33% confident dry
34% 33% ambiguous
36% 33% ambiguous

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor