WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain +96h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
6% 6% at 23Z 0 0 0
9% 2% at 20Z 0 0 12
1% 1% at 14Z 0 0 12
2% 0% at 14Z 0 0 12
3% 0% at 13Z 0 0 12
2% 0% at 11Z 0 0 12
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=58%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
9% 14% —
6% 14% —
11% 14% —
15% 14% —
14% 14% —
14% 14% —
6% 14% —
4% 14% —
14% 29% —
23% 33% confident dry
19% 33% confident dry
17% 33% confident dry
12% 50% confident dry
7% 33% confident dry
9% 33% confident dry
8% 33% confident dry
7% 33% confident dry
7% 33% confident dry
6% 33% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
2% 17% confident dry
3% 17% —
3% 17% —
4% 17% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
8% 29% —
4% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
4% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
7% 0% —
6% 0% —
7% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
5% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
5% 0% —
4% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
4% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
3% 0% —
4% 0% —
5% 0% —
4% 0% —
5% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
2% 0% —

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Bovey Tracey

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
3% 3% at 23Z 0 0 0
4% 1% at 20Z 0 0 12
1% 1% at 19Z 0 0 12
1% 0% at 15Z 0 0 12
1% 0% at 13Z 0 0 12
1% 0% at 16Z 0 0 12
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=47%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
3% 14% —
2% 14% —
3% 14% —
3% 14% —
3% 14% —
3% 14% —
2% 14% —
2% 14% —
5% 29% —
11% 33% confident dry
9% 33% confident dry
8% 33% confident dry
7% 50% confident dry
4% 33% confident dry
5% 33% confident dry
5% 33% confident dry
4% 33% confident dry
5% 33% confident dry
4% 33% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
2% 17% —
2% 17% —
2% 17% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
1% 0% —
4% 29% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
1% 0% —
2% 0% —
1% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
4% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
3% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
2% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
6% 6% at 23Z 0 0 0
11% 2% at 20Z 0 0 12
1% 1% at 14Z 0 0 12
3% 0% at 14Z 0 0 12
3% 1% at 12Z 0 0 12
2% 1% at 13Z 0 0 12
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=62%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
14% 14% —
10% 14% —
16% 14% —
19% 14% —
18% 14% —
19% 14% —
8% 14% —
5% 14% —
15% 29% —
24% 33% confident dry
20% 33% confident dry
18% 33% confident dry
13% 50% confident dry
7% 33% confident dry
9% 33% confident dry
9% 33% confident dry
7% 33% confident dry
7% 33% confident dry
6% 33% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
2% 17% confident dry
3% 17% —
3% 17% —
4% 17% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
3% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
3% 0% —
9% 29% —
4% 0% —
3% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
7% 0% —
7% 0% —
8% 0% —
6% 0% —
6% 0% —
7% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
6% 0% —
6% 0% —
5% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
5% 0% —
6% 0% —
5% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% —
1% 0% —
2% 0% —

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Princetown

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
7% 6% at 23Z 0 0 0
10% 2% at 20Z 0 0 12
1% 1% at 14Z 0 0 12
2% 0% at 15Z 0 0 12
3% 0% at 12Z 0 0 12
2% 0% at 13Z 0 0 12
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=59%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
9% 14% —
7% 14% —
11% 14% —
15% 14% —
14% 14% —
14% 14% —
6% 14% —
4% 14% —
14% 29% —
26% 33% confident dry
21% 33% confident dry
20% 33% confident dry
14% 50% confident dry
8% 33% confident dry
10% 33% confident dry
10% 33% confident dry
9% 33% confident dry
9% 33% confident dry
7% 33% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
2% 17% confident dry
3% 17% —
3% 17% —
4% 17% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
2% 0% —
6% 29% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
2% 0% —
3% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
6% 0% —
5% 0% —
6% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
6% 0% —
5% 0% —
4% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
4% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor