WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain +96h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour	conf dry h
Mon 03 Aug	4%	4% at 23Z	0
Tue 04 Aug	30%	5% at 00Z	12
Wed 05 Aug	12%	1% at 16Z	12
Thu 06 Aug	1%	0% at 21Z	12
Fri 07 Aug	1%	0% at 21Z	12
Sat 08 Aug	1%	0% at 09Z	12

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=57%

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet	Conformal (90% set)
08-04 00Z	5%	43%	—
08-04 01Z	7%	43%	—
08-04 02Z	7%	43%	—
08-04 03Z	13%	43%	—
08-04 04Z	15%	29%	—
08-04 05Z	18%	29%	—
08-04 06Z	42%	43%	—
08-04 07Z	43%	57%	—
08-04 08Z	44%	57%	—
08-04 09Z	36%	83%	confident dry
08-04 10Z	34%	50%	confident dry
08-04 11Z	34%	50%	confident dry
08-04 12Z	38%	50%	confident dry
08-04 13Z	38%	67%	confident dry
08-04 14Z	35%	50%	confident dry
08-04 15Z	32%	50%	confident dry
08-04 16Z	33%	33%	confident dry
08-04 17Z	36%	33%	confident dry
08-04 18Z	33%	33%	confident dry
08-04 19Z	38%	50%	confident dry
08-04 20Z	42%	33%	confident dry
08-04 21Z	34%	33%	—
08-04 22Z	30%	33%	—
08-04 23Z	28%	33%	—
08-05 00Z	25%	29%	—
08-05 01Z	11%	0%	—
08-05 02Z	29%	14%	—
08-05 03Z	25%	14%	—
08-05 04Z	27%	29%	—
08-05 05Z	27%	29%	—
08-05 06Z	38%	43%	—
08-05 07Z	30%	43%	—
08-05 08Z	20%	43%	—
08-05 09Z	13%	50%	confident dry
08-05 10Z	8%	33%	confident dry
08-05 11Z	6%	33%	confident dry
08-05 12Z	6%	33%	confident dry
08-05 13Z	3%	17%	confident dry
08-05 14Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 15Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 16Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 17Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 18Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 19Z	2%	0%	confident dry
08-05 20Z	4%	17%	confident dry
08-05 21Z	6%	17%	—
08-05 22Z	7%	17%	—
08-05 23Z	5%	17%	—
08-06 00Z	3%	14%	—
08-06 01Z	1%	0%	—
08-06 02Z	3%	14%	—
08-06 03Z	3%	14%	—
08-06 04Z	3%	14%	—
08-06 05Z	4%	14%	—
08-06 06Z	4%	14%	—
08-06 07Z	1%	14%	—
08-06 08Z	1%	14%	—
08-06 09Z	2%	17%	confident dry
08-06 10Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-06 11Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-06 12Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-06 13Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 14Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 15Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 16Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 17Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 18Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 19Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 20Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 21Z	0%	0%	—
08-06 22Z	1%	0%	—
08-06 23Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 00Z	0%	0%	—
08-07 01Z	0%	0%	—
08-07 02Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 03Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 04Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 05Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 06Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 07Z	3%	29%	—
08-07 08Z	1%	14%	—
08-07 09Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-07 10Z	1%	33%	confident dry
08-07 11Z	1%	33%	confident dry
08-07 12Z	0%	17%	confident dry
08-07 13Z	1%	33%	confident dry
08-07 14Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 15Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 16Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 17Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 18Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 19Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 20Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 21Z	0%	0%	—
08-07 22Z	0%	0%	—
08-07 23Z	0%	0%	—
08-08 00Z	0%	0%	—
08-08 01Z	0%	0%	—
08-08 02Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 03Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 04Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 05Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 06Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 07Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 08Z	0%	0%	—
08-08 09Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-08 10Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-08 11Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-08 12Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-08 13Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 14Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 15Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 16Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 17Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 18Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 19Z	3%	17%	confident dry
08-08 20Z	3%	17%	confident dry
08-08 21Z	2%	17%	—
08-08 22Z	5%	33%	—
08-08 23Z	7%	33%	—

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Bovey Tracey

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour	conf dry h
Mon 03 Aug	4%	4% at 23Z	0
Tue 04 Aug	9%	2% at 00Z	12
Wed 05 Aug	2%	0% at 17Z	12
Thu 06 Aug	1%	0% at 20Z	12
Fri 07 Aug	0%	0% at 21Z	12
Sat 08 Aug	1%	0% at 09Z	12

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=46%

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet	Conformal (90% set)
08-04 00Z	2%	43%	—
08-04 01Z	3%	43%	—
08-04 02Z	4%	43%	—
08-04 03Z	7%	43%	—
08-04 04Z	7%	29%	—
08-04 05Z	9%	29%	—
08-04 06Z	20%	43%	—
08-04 07Z	17%	57%	—
08-04 08Z	18%	57%	—
08-04 09Z	12%	83%	confident dry
08-04 10Z	12%	50%	confident dry
08-04 11Z	10%	50%	confident dry
08-04 12Z	12%	50%	confident dry
08-04 13Z	12%	67%	confident dry
08-04 14Z	11%	50%	confident dry
08-04 15Z	10%	50%	confident dry
08-04 16Z	8%	33%	confident dry
08-04 17Z	9%	33%	confident dry
08-04 18Z	8%	33%	confident dry
08-04 19Z	9%	50%	confident dry
08-04 20Z	10%	33%	confident dry
08-04 21Z	5%	33%	—
08-04 22Z	4%	33%	—
08-04 23Z	4%	33%	—
08-05 00Z	3%	29%	—
08-05 01Z	2%	0%	—
08-05 02Z	3%	14%	—
08-05 03Z	3%	14%	—
08-05 04Z	4%	29%	—
08-05 05Z	5%	29%	—
08-05 06Z	7%	43%	—
08-05 07Z	6%	43%	—
08-05 08Z	6%	43%	—
08-05 09Z	3%	50%	confident dry
08-05 10Z	2%	33%	confident dry
08-05 11Z	1%	33%	confident dry
08-05 12Z	2%	33%	confident dry
08-05 13Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-05 14Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 15Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 16Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-05 17Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-05 18Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 19Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 20Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-05 21Z	2%	17%	—
08-05 22Z	2%	17%	—
08-05 23Z	1%	17%	—
08-06 00Z	1%	14%	—
08-06 01Z	1%	0%	—
08-06 02Z	1%	14%	—
08-06 03Z	1%	14%	—
08-06 04Z	1%	14%	—
08-06 05Z	2%	14%	—
08-06 06Z	1%	14%	—
08-06 07Z	1%	14%	—
08-06 08Z	0%	14%	—
08-06 09Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-06 10Z	0%	17%	confident dry
08-06 11Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-06 12Z	0%	17%	confident dry
08-06 13Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 14Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 15Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 16Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 17Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 18Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 19Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 20Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 21Z	0%	0%	—
08-06 22Z	0%	0%	—
08-06 23Z	0%	0%	—
08-07 00Z	0%	0%	—
08-07 01Z	0%	0%	—
08-07 02Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 03Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 04Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 05Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 06Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 07Z	2%	29%	—
08-07 08Z	1%	14%	—
08-07 09Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-07 10Z	1%	33%	confident dry
08-07 11Z	0%	33%	confident dry
08-07 12Z	0%	17%	confident dry
08-07 13Z	1%	33%	confident dry
08-07 14Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 15Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 16Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 17Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 18Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 19Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 20Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 21Z	0%	0%	—
08-07 22Z	0%	0%	—
08-07 23Z	0%	0%	—
08-08 00Z	0%	0%	—
08-08 01Z	0%	0%	—
08-08 02Z	0%	0%	—
08-08 03Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 04Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 05Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 06Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 07Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 08Z	0%	0%	—
08-08 09Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-08 10Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-08 11Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-08 12Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-08 13Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 14Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 15Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 16Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 17Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 18Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 19Z	2%	17%	confident dry
08-08 20Z	2%	17%	confident dry
08-08 21Z	2%	17%	—
08-08 22Z	3%	33%	—
08-08 23Z	3%	33%	—

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour	amb h	conf dry h
Mon 03 Aug	6%	6% at 23Z	0	0
Tue 04 Aug	32%	7% at 00Z	5	7
Wed 05 Aug	14%	1% at 16Z	0	12
Thu 06 Aug	2%	1% at 20Z	0	12
Fri 07 Aug	1%	0% at 21Z	0	12
Sat 08 Aug	2%	0% at 09Z	0	12

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=62%

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet	Conformal (90% set)
08-04 00Z	7%	43%	—
08-04 01Z	11%	43%	—
08-04 02Z	9%	43%	—
08-04 03Z	13%	43%	—
08-04 04Z	16%	29%	—
08-04 05Z	18%	29%	—
08-04 06Z	43%	43%	—
08-04 07Z	44%	57%	—
08-04 08Z	47%	57%	—
08-04 09Z	37%	83%	confident dry
08-04 10Z	35%	50%	confident dry
08-04 11Z	36%	50%	confident dry
08-04 12Z	40%	50%	ambiguous
08-04 13Z	40%	67%	ambiguous
08-04 14Z	37%	50%	confident dry
08-04 15Z	33%	50%	confident dry
08-04 16Z	36%	33%	confident dry
08-04 17Z	39%	33%	ambiguous
08-04 18Z	34%	33%	confident dry
08-04 19Z	41%	50%	ambiguous
08-04 20Z	43%	33%	ambiguous
08-04 21Z	37%	33%	—
08-04 22Z	33%	33%	—
08-04 23Z	31%	33%	—
08-05 00Z	28%	29%	—
08-05 01Z	13%	0%	—
08-05 02Z	32%	14%	—
08-05 03Z	28%	14%	—
08-05 04Z	30%	29%	—
08-05 05Z	30%	29%	—
08-05 06Z	41%	43%	—
08-05 07Z	34%	43%	—
08-05 08Z	24%	43%	—
08-05 09Z	15%	50%	confident dry
08-05 10Z	9%	33%	confident dry
08-05 11Z	6%	33%	confident dry
08-05 12Z	7%	33%	confident dry
08-05 13Z	3%	17%	confident dry
08-05 14Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 15Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 16Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 17Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 18Z	2%	0%	confident dry
08-05 19Z	3%	0%	confident dry
08-05 20Z	5%	17%	confident dry
08-05 21Z	7%	17%	—
08-05 22Z	9%	17%	—
08-05 23Z	6%	17%	—
08-06 00Z	3%	14%	—
08-06 01Z	2%	0%	—
08-06 02Z	3%	14%	—
08-06 03Z	4%	14%	—
08-06 04Z	4%	14%	—
08-06 05Z	5%	14%	—
08-06 06Z	5%	14%	—
08-06 07Z	2%	14%	—
08-06 08Z	1%	14%	—
08-06 09Z	2%	17%	confident dry
08-06 10Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-06 11Z	2%	17%	confident dry
08-06 12Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-06 13Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 14Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 15Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 16Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 17Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 18Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 19Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 20Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 21Z	1%	0%	—
08-06 22Z	1%	0%	—
08-06 23Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 00Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 01Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 02Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 03Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 04Z	1%	0%	—
08-07 05Z	2%	0%	—
08-07 06Z	2%	0%	—
08-07 07Z	4%	29%	—
08-07 08Z	1%	14%	—
08-07 09Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-07 10Z	1%	33%	confident dry
08-07 11Z	1%	33%	confident dry
08-07 12Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-07 13Z	1%	33%	confident dry
08-07 14Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-07 15Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-07 16Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 17Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 18Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 19Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 20Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-07 21Z	0%	0%	—
08-07 22Z	0%	0%	—
08-07 23Z	0%	0%	—
08-08 00Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 01Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 02Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 03Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 04Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 05Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 06Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 07Z	2%	0%	—
08-08 08Z	1%	0%	—
08-08 09Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-08 10Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-08 11Z	1%	17%	confident dry
08-08 12Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 13Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 14Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 15Z	2%	0%	confident dry
08-08 16Z	2%	0%	confident dry
08-08 17Z	2%	0%	confident dry
08-08 18Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-08 19Z	3%	17%	confident dry
08-08 20Z	4%	17%	confident dry
08-08 21Z	4%	17%	—
08-08 22Z	7%	33%	—
08-08 23Z	9%	33%	—

Rain +96h

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Bovey Tracey

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor