WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
About WeatherBlend
WeatherBlend is a multi-model weather-forecast blending proof of concept for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor (50.5831°, -3.7931°, 393m). It combines forecasts from six numerical weather-prediction (NWP) models — GFS, ECMWF IFS, DWD ICON, Météo-France, UK Met Office, and Environment Canada GEM — via a LightGBM blender trained against ERA5 reanalysis.
Scope
This PoC targets temperature at lead times 24h, 48h and 72h. Shorter and longer horizons are out of scope. Precipitation is a future phase.
Data sources
- Forecasts: Open-Meteo (live + historical-forecast API).
- Training truth: ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo (gapless, quantitative).
- Verification truth: METAR from aviationweather.gov and OGIMET, used as a real-observation sanity check.
Caveats
- ERA5 is a 0.25° gridded reanalysis; it represents a grid-cell average near Bonehill Rocks, not the tor itself.
- Lowland METAR (Exeter, Yeovilton) has systematic biases against a 393m moorland tor — useful as a cross-check, not ground truth.
- Blender predictions currently cover one model version and a short verification window.
Source: WeatherBlend repo. Rendered 2026-04-22 21:10Z.