WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain <24hr

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
70% 69% at 23Z
22% 2% at 20Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
69% 71%
60% 43%
67% 57%
52% 43%
32% 29%
49% 43%
56% 57%
26% 43%
25% 29%
26% 29%
16% 57%
13% 43%
9% 57%
4% 43%
3% 29%
3% 29%
3% 29%
2% 14%
2% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%

Bovey Tracey

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
16% 14% at 22Z
6% 1% at 17Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
29% 71%
14% 43%
14% 57%
11% 43%
6% 29%
9% 43%
10% 57%
8% 43%
5% 29%
4% 29%
6% 57%
5% 43%
4% 57%
2% 43%
1% 29%
1% 29%
1% 29%
1% 14%
1% 14%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
71% 71% at 23Z
23% 2% at 18Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
70% 71%
61% 43%
68% 57%
53% 43%
34% 29%
50% 43%
57% 57%
27% 43%
27% 29%
27% 29%
17% 57%
13% 43%
9% 57%
5% 43%
3% 29%
3% 29%
3% 29%
2% 14%
2% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%

Princetown

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
69% 68% at 23Z
22% 2% at 20Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
69% 71%
61% 43%
66% 57%
51% 43%
32% 29%
49% 43%
56% 57%
26% 43%
25% 29%
26% 29%
16% 57%
12% 43%
9% 57%
4% 43%
3% 29%
3% 29%
3% 29%
2% 14%
2% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor