WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain <24hr

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
1% 1% at 23Z
32% 3% at 00Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
3% 0%
13% 29%
15% 14%
20% 14%
46% 29%
32% 29%
50% 29%
55% 43%
38% 57%
39% 57%
30% 57%
32% 57%
21% 43%
16% 43%
16% 43%
39% 43%
30% 43%
31% 43%
37% 43%
32% 29%
42% 29%
49% 29%
48% 29%
32% 14%

Bovey Tracey

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
1% 1% at 23Z
12% 2% at 00Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
2% 0%
6% 29%
5% 14%
6% 14%
11% 29%
8% 29%
19% 29%
19% 43%
15% 57%
22% 57%
15% 57%
21% 57%
11% 43%
10% 43%
9% 43%
20% 43%
13% 43%
14% 43%
14% 43%
9% 29%
8% 29%
6% 29%
8% 29%
6% 14%

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
2% 2% at 23Z
34% 4% at 00Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
4% 0%
15% 29%
16% 14%
22% 14%
49% 29%
36% 29%
55% 29%
58% 43%
40% 57%
42% 57%
33% 57%
35% 57%
22% 43%
18% 43%
20% 43%
40% 43%
30% 43%
32% 43%
41% 43%
34% 29%
42% 29%
48% 29%
47% 29%
33% 14%

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor