WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain <24hr

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
8% 2% at 12Z
22% 2% at 13Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
33% 86%
31% 86%
34% 86%
51% 100%
35% 100%
26% 57%
71% 71%
54% 43%
43% 57%
36% 57%
26% 43%
24% 43%
12% 29%
2% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
4% 14%
3% 0%
7% 14%
4% 0%
9% 14%

Bovey Tracey

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
7% 1% at 05Z
15% 1% at 18Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
36% 86%
35% 86%
38% 86%
51% 100%
34% 100%
21% 57%
54% 71%
24% 43%
13% 57%
11% 57%
6% 43%
8% 43%
4% 29%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
2% 14%
1% 0%
2% 14%
1% 0%
3% 14%

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
9% 2% at 12Z
24% 4% at 13Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
37% 86%
36% 86%
39% 86%
55% 100%
37% 100%
26% 57%
74% 71%
56% 43%
44% 57%
37% 57%
29% 43%
31% 43%
18% 29%
4% 0%
4% 0%
5% 0%
6% 0%
5% 0%
4% 0%
6% 14%
5% 0%
10% 14%
6% 0%
12% 14%

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor