WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Temperature models

2b (lean) + 2c (rich). MAE °C, lower better. Δ vs best single NWP — negative = blend wins.

Temperature — Bonehill Rocks

Phase 2c · `v2026-10-04_135520_phase2c` Δ -0.006 vs prev train

Rich blender, 88 features (adds dew/RH/cloud/wind/pressure). Trained 2026-10-04. Metric: Test MAE (°C).

Lead	Blend	Best single	Δ vs best
+24h	0.620	temp_aifs (0.694)	-10.7%
+48h	0.702	temp_aifs (0.744)	-5.6%
+72h	0.818	temp_aifs (0.850)	-3.8%
+96h	0.955	temp_aifs (0.957)	-0.2%
+120h	1.281	temp_aifs (1.084)	+18.1%

Verify history (44 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling MAE (°C). Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC)	Version	N	+12h	+24h	+48h	+72h	+96h	+120h
Mon 2026-10-05	`v2026-09-13_135236_phase2c` `v2026-09-27_140136_phase2c`	204	1.129 temp_icon: 0.562	1.055 temp_icon: 0.575	0.736 temp_aifs: 0.660	1.157 temp_ukmo: 1.102	1.022 temp_mf: 0.457	1.493 temp_aifs: 0.686
Thu 2026-10-01	`v2026-09-13_135236_phase2c`	336	—	1.560 temp_aifs: 0.384	0.784 temp_aifs: 0.476	1.072 temp_aifs: 0.510	0.902 temp_aifs: 0.747	1.313 temp_aifs: 1.027
Mon 2026-09-28	`v2026-09-13_135236_phase2c`	336	1.375 temp_aifs: 0.615	1.308 temp_aifs: 0.514	0.641 temp_aifs: 0.475	0.996 temp_aifs: 0.525	0.918 temp_aifs: 0.794	1.313 temp_aifs: 1.027
Mon 2026-09-14	`v2026-08-30_135704_phase2c` `v2026-09-06_135840_phase2c`	672	1.571 temp_aifs: 0.443	1.674 temp_aifs: 0.504	0.680 temp_icon: 0.592	1.044 temp_icon: 0.684	1.095 temp_icon: 0.860	1.618 temp_icon: 0.934
Thu 2026-09-10	`v2026-08-23_135054_phase2c` `v2026-08-30_135704_phase2c`	672	1.483 temp_aifs: 0.518	1.563 temp_aifs: 0.556	0.643 temp_icon: 0.524	1.112 temp_aifs: 0.455	0.979 temp_mf: 0.419	1.606 temp_aifs: 0.867
Mon 2026-09-07	`v2026-08-23_135054_phase2c` `v2026-08-30_135704_phase2c`	672	1.458 temp_aifs: 0.592	1.562 temp_aifs: 0.752	0.703 temp_aifs: 0.627	1.011 temp_aifs: 0.704	0.832 temp_aifs: 0.722	1.396 temp_aifs: 0.817
Thu 2026-09-03	`v2026-08-09_140912_phase2c` `v2026-08-23_135054_phase2c`	704	1.608 temp_aifs: 0.640	1.885 temp_aifs: 0.711	0.961 temp_aifs: 0.656	1.696 temp_aifs: 0.785	1.797 temp_mf: 0.813	1.610 temp_aifs: 0.954
Mon 2026-08-31	`v2026-08-09_140912_phase2c` `v2026-08-23_135054_phase2c`	728	1.409 temp_icon: 0.535	1.766 temp_icon: 0.342	0.893 temp_icon: 0.799	1.365 temp_aifs: 0.851	1.210 temp_icon: 0.959	1.776 temp_aifs: 1.165
Thu 2026-08-27	`v2026-08-09_140912_phase2c`	752	2.109 temp_ecmwf: 0.705	2.238 temp_ecmwf: 0.811	1.248 temp_mf: 0.924	2.111 temp_icon: 1.136	2.007 temp_mf: 1.128	2.672 temp_ecmwf: 1.662
Mon 2026-08-24	`v2026-08-09_140912_phase2c`	742	2.203 temp_ecmwf: 0.928	2.264 temp_ecmwf: 0.943	1.429 temp_ecmwf: 1.096	2.379 temp_aifs: 1.366	2.550 temp_mf: 1.522	3.500 temp_ecmwf: 2.271
Thu 2026-08-20	`v2026-08-02_135308_phase2c` `v2026-08-09_140912_phase2c`	576	2.190 temp_aifs: 1.107	2.133 temp_ecmwf: 1.109	1.462 temp_ukmo: 0.959	2.356 temp_ukmo: 1.051	2.699 temp_aifs: 1.006	2.589 temp_aifs: 1.466
Mon 2026-08-17	`v2026-08-02_135308_phase2c` `v2026-08-09_140912_phase2c`	576	2.201 temp_aifs: 1.019	2.223 temp_ecmwf: 0.685	0.907 temp_aifs: 0.947	1.263 temp_aifs: 1.026	1.502 temp_aifs: 1.292	2.403 temp_aifs: 1.338
Thu 2026-08-13	`v2026-07-26_135942_phase2c` `v2026-08-02_135308_phase2c`	624	1.598 temp_ecmwf: 0.841	1.614 temp_ecmwf: 0.709	0.732 temp_icon: 0.720	1.150 temp_icon: 0.753	1.149 temp_icon: 0.763	1.780 temp_aifs: 1.068
Wed 2026-08-12	`v2026-07-26_135942_phase2c` `v2026-08-02_135308_phase2c`	624	1.598 temp_ecmwf: 0.841	1.614 temp_ecmwf: 0.709	0.732 temp_icon: 0.720	1.150 temp_icon: 0.753	1.149 temp_icon: 0.763	1.780 temp_aifs: 1.068
Thu 2026-08-06	`v2026-07-19_135415_phase2c` `v2026-07-26_135942_phase2c`	624	1.355 temp_aifs: 0.474	1.483 temp_aifs: 0.566	0.756 temp_aifs: 0.654	1.275 temp_aifs: 0.715	0.942 temp_aifs: 0.623	1.693 temp_aifs: 0.921
Mon 2026-08-03	`v2026-07-19_135415_phase2c` `v2026-07-26_135942_phase2c`	624	1.459 temp_aifs: 0.365	1.400 temp_aifs: 0.404	0.701 temp_aifs: 0.719	1.211 temp_aifs: 0.882	1.172 temp_aifs: 0.902	1.788 temp_aifs: 0.818
Thu 2026-07-30	`v2026-07-12_135730_phase2c` `v2026-07-19_135415_phase2c`	624	1.263 temp_aifs: 0.643	1.229 temp_aifs: 0.703	0.779 temp_aifs: 0.800	1.415 temp_aifs: 1.229	1.662 temp_ukmo: 0.723	1.675 temp_aifs: 0.926
Mon 2026-07-27	`v2026-07-12_135730_phase2c` `v2026-07-19_135415_phase2c`	624	1.301 temp_aifs: 0.809	1.322 temp_ukmo: 0.771	0.777 temp_aifs: 0.841	1.096 temp_aifs: 0.812	1.048 temp_aifs: 0.788	1.439 temp_aifs: 0.838
Thu 2026-07-23	`v2026-07-05_135420_phase2c` `v2026-07-12_135730_phase2c`	624	1.773 temp_ecmwf: 0.642	1.648 temp_ecmwf: 0.745	0.777 temp_ecmwf: 0.890	1.073 temp_aifs: 0.782	1.209 temp_aifs: 0.885	2.199 temp_aifs: 1.419
Mon 2026-07-20	`v2026-07-05_135420_phase2c` `v2026-07-12_135730_phase2c`	624	1.949 temp_ecmwf: 0.671	1.803 temp_ecmwf: 0.631	1.450 temp_aifs: 1.089	1.803 temp_aifs: 1.217	1.831 temp_ecmwf: 1.396	2.580 temp_icon: 1.193
Thu 2026-07-16	`v2026-06-28_140921_phase2c` `v2026-07-05_135420_phase2c`	648	1.713 temp_aifs: 0.828	1.849 temp_aifs: 0.926	1.558 temp_aifs: 1.003	2.025 temp_aifs: 0.983	2.546 temp_aifs: 1.058	2.381 temp_aifs: 1.265
Mon 2026-07-13	`v2026-06-28_140921_phase2c` `v2026-07-05_135420_phase2c`	648	1.626 temp_aifs: 0.702	2.033 temp_aifs: 0.694	0.710 temp_ecmwf: 0.727	1.141 temp_aifs: 0.987	1.291 temp_aifs: 1.181	1.769 temp_aifs: 1.265
Thu 2026-07-09	`v2026-06-21_135756_phase2c` `v2026-06-28_140921_phase2c`	648	0.986 temp_aifs: 0.512	0.924 temp_ecmwf: 0.457	0.300 temp_ecmwf: 0.486	0.656 temp_ecmwf: 0.530	0.501 temp_ecmwf: 0.279	1.278 temp_aifs: 0.819
Mon 2026-07-06	`v2026-06-21_135756_phase2c` `v2026-06-28_140921_phase2c`	648	0.839 temp_ecmwf: 0.522	0.619 temp_ecmwf: 0.242	1.310 temp_aifs: 0.952	1.480 temp_ecmwf: 0.847	1.141 temp_ecmwf: 0.831	1.511 temp_aifs: 0.893
Thu 2026-07-02	`v2026-06-15_083940_phase2c` `v2026-06-21_135756_phase2c`	600	2.874 temp_ecmwf: 0.813	3.190 temp_aifs: 1.040	2.552 temp_aifs: 1.132	3.273 temp_icon: 1.335	2.759 temp_icon: 0.669	3.570 temp_gfs: 1.613
Mon 2026-06-29	`v2026-06-15_083940_phase2c` `v2026-06-21_135756_phase2c`	600	1.823 temp_gfs: 0.807	1.968 temp_ukmo: 0.808	0.751 temp_ecmwf: 0.791	0.792 temp_ecmwf: 0.850	0.817 temp_ecmwf: 0.988	1.879 temp_ecmwf: 1.275
Thu 2026-06-25	`v2026-06-07_131622_phase2c` `v2026-06-14_134614_phase2c` `v2026-06-15_083940_phase2c`	720	0.706 temp_aifs: 0.667	0.668 temp_ecmwf: 0.598	0.839 temp_ecmwf: 0.696	0.624 temp_ecmwf: 0.975	0.884 temp_ecmwf: 0.792	0.830 temp_ecmwf: 1.150
Mon 2026-06-22	`v2026-06-07_131622_phase2c` `v2026-06-14_134614_phase2c` `v2026-06-15_083940_phase2c`	720	0.788 temp_aifs: 0.583	0.853 temp_aifs: 0.471	0.471 temp_aifs: 0.673	0.613 temp_aifs: 0.691	0.742 temp_ecmwf: 0.950	0.978 temp_ecmwf: 1.156
Thu 2026-06-18	`v2026-06-01_233346_phase2c` `v2026-06-07_131622_phase2c`	528	—	0.597 temp_icon: 0.524	0.382 temp_aifs: 0.468	0.337 temp_mf: 0.578	0.663 temp_aifs: 0.590	0.499 temp_aifs: 0.542
Mon 2026-06-15	`v2026-06-01_233346_phase2c` `v2026-06-07_131622_phase2c`	528	—	0.692 temp_aifs: 0.558	0.426 temp_aifs: 0.490	0.478 temp_ecmwf: 0.648	0.621 temp_ecmwf: 0.750	0.534 temp_aifs: 0.725
Fri 2026-06-12	`v2026-06-01_233346_phase2c`	432	—	0.468 temp_aifs: 0.403	0.435 temp_aifs: 0.503	0.566 temp_ecmwf: 0.723	0.642 temp_mf: 0.720	0.949 temp_gfs: 0.871
Thu 2026-06-11	`v2026-05-26_104346_phase2c` `v2026-06-01_233346_phase2c`	528	—	0.485 temp_aifs: 0.354	0.325 temp_aifs: 0.401	0.417 temp_aifs: 0.238	0.614 temp_aifs: 0.724	0.490 temp_aifs: 0.745
Mon 2026-06-08	`v2026-05-26_104346_phase2c` `v2026-05-31_201130_phase2c`	528	—	0.284 temp_aifs: 0.338	0.521 temp_ecmwf: 0.753	0.580 temp_aifs: 0.746	0.734 temp_aifs: 0.718	0.646 temp_aifs: 0.711
Thu 2026-06-04	`v2026-05-17_173626_phase2c` `v2026-05-24_130333_phase2c` `v2026-05-26_104346_phase2c`	744	—	0.736 temp_aifs: 0.927	0.707 temp_gfs: 0.994	0.850 temp_aifs: 1.137	1.021 temp_ecmwf: 1.252	1.633 temp_aifs: 1.749
Mon 2026-06-01	`v2026-05-17_173626_phase2c` `v2026-05-24_130333_phase2c`	744	—	0.835 temp_ecmwf: 1.164	0.919 temp_ecmwf: 1.035	1.108 temp_ecmwf: 1.401	1.320 temp_ukmo: 1.773	1.604 temp_aifs: 1.876
Thu 2026-05-28	`v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c` `v2026-05-17_173626_phase2c`	1600	—	0.349 temp_aifs: 0.429	0.367 temp_aifs: 0.477	0.465 temp_icon: 0.413	0.558 temp_icon: 0.575	0.741 temp_ecmwf: 0.767
Mon 2026-05-25	`v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c` `v2026-05-17_173626_phase2c`	2012	—	0.550 temp_ukmo: 0.396	0.477 temp_icon: 0.660	0.744 temp_ecmwf: 0.767	0.796 temp_ecmwf: 0.891	0.769 temp_ecmwf: 0.795
Thu 2026-05-21	`v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c`	2012	—	0.433 temp_icon: 0.566	0.565 temp_ecmwf: 0.775	0.780 temp_aifs: 0.899	0.836 temp_aifs: 0.945	0.958 temp_ecmwf: 1.069
Mon 2026-05-18	`v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c`	1694	—	0.455 temp_aifs: 0.586	0.635 temp_ecmwf: 0.772	0.696 temp_aifs: 0.782	1.029 temp_aifs: 1.098	1.290 temp_aifs: 1.147
Thu 2026-05-14	`v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c`	388	—	0.509 temp_aifs: 0.598	0.597 temp_ecmwf: 0.689	0.615 temp_aifs: 0.703	0.908 temp_aifs: 0.764	0.630 temp_ecmwf: 0.778
Mon 2026-05-11	`v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c`	173	—	0.462 temp_aifs: 0.558	0.789 temp_aifs: 0.798	0.940 temp_ecmwf: 0.805	1.110 temp_aifs: 0.814	0.623 temp_ecmwf: 0.944
Thu 2026-05-07	`v2026-04-27_191724_phase2c` `v2026-04-27_225213_phase2c` `v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c`	9	—	0.800 temp_aifs: 0.556	0.823 temp_gem: 0.717	1.104 temp_gem: 0.000	—	—
Tue 2026-05-05	`v2026-04-23_132453_phase2c` `v2026-04-27_181257_phase2c` `v2026-04-27_191724_phase2c`	9	—	0.735 temp_mf: 0.000	1.616 temp_icon: 0.000	1.047 temp_ecmwf: 1.189	—	—
Sun 2026-05-03	`v2026-04-23_132453_phase2c`	10	—	0.834 temp_mf: 0.740	0.904 temp_gfs: 0.580	—	—	—

By actual NWP forecast lead (6h buckets)

Same data grouped by ValidTime − freshest contributing NWP cycle (6h buckets) instead of trained-lead label. Reveals MAE structure within a trained bucket once predict spread to hourly outputs (2026-05-04+). Buckets start at the trained lead — earlier figures measured from the cron-fire time, which made offset-day models look like sub-lead forecasts.

Run (UTC)	-12--7h	0-5h	6-11h	12-17h	18-23h	24-29h	30-35h	36-41h	42-47h	48-53h	54-59h	60-65h	66-71h	72-77h	78-83h	84-89h	90-95h	96-101h	102-107h	108-113h	114-119h	120-125h	126-131h	132-137h	138-143h	144-149h
Mon 2026-10-05	—	—	—	1.131	1.076	1.093	0.639	1.528	1.164	0.758	0.659	0.798	0.476	1.326	0.722	0.634	0.920	1.022	—	—	—	1.257	1.718	1.934	1.430	—
Thu 2026-10-01	—	—	—	—	—	1.654	1.523	1.556	1.015	0.828	0.703	0.814	0.485	1.033	1.147	1.313	0.757	0.856	0.935	1.113	1.111	1.156	1.656	2.090	1.206	—
Mon 2026-09-28	—	—	—	1.416	0.569	1.316	1.338	1.433	0.728	0.614	0.685	0.760	0.717	0.943	1.128	1.313	0.757	0.882	0.935	1.113	1.111	1.156	1.656	2.090	1.206	—
Mon 2026-09-14	—	—	—	1.572	1.562	1.675	1.661	1.628	1.094	0.691	0.652	0.729	0.454	0.982	1.215	1.315	0.854	1.020	1.280	1.423	1.050	1.576	1.672	2.048	1.296	—
Thu 2026-09-10	—	—	—	1.497	1.113	1.525	1.591	1.959	1.357	0.683	0.539	0.586	0.298	1.068	1.171	1.511	1.203	0.972	1.052	0.716	0.794	1.569	1.777	1.719	1.259	—
Mon 2026-09-07	—	—	—	1.485	0.376	1.656	0.530	1.384	0.868	0.718	0.792	0.591	0.332	1.035	1.148	0.778	0.508	0.883	0.759	0.562	0.835	1.413	1.604	1.171	0.714	—
Thu 2026-09-03	—	—	—	1.615	1.395	1.884	2.075	1.794	1.280	0.995	0.882	0.959	0.480	1.718	1.750	1.597	0.824	1.878	0.905	1.244	0.870	1.602	1.815	1.584	0.867	—
Mon 2026-08-31	—	—	—	1.398	1.897	1.768	1.751	1.853	1.494	0.918	0.871	0.799	0.767	1.370	1.478	1.368	0.764	1.192	1.283	1.363	0.788	1.762	1.974	1.829	1.010	—
Thu 2026-08-27	—	—	—	2.136	1.418	2.176	2.474	2.474	1.666	1.248	1.275	1.385	0.776	2.115	2.322	2.079	1.250	2.021	2.053	2.184	1.097	2.735	2.807	2.556	1.179	—
Mon 2026-08-24	—	—	—	2.233	1.548	2.159	2.642	2.625	1.525	1.366	1.629	1.748	0.873	2.310	2.785	2.542	1.463	2.520	2.723	2.872	1.464	3.563	3.745	3.431	1.177	—
Thu 2026-08-20	—	—	—	2.213	1.556	1.987	2.766	2.474	1.217	1.355	1.880	1.827	0.720	2.216	3.238	2.412	0.753	2.898	0.513	1.740	1.212	2.448	3.265	2.950	1.304	—
Mon 2026-08-17	—	—	—	2.191	2.589	2.216	2.297	1.625	1.200	0.978	0.753	0.764	0.719	1.231	1.424	1.398	0.808	1.501	1.480	1.591	1.400	2.282	2.872	2.842	1.723	—
Thu 2026-08-13	—	—	—	1.629	0.876	1.653	1.618	1.553	0.965	0.782	0.640	0.579	0.428	1.164	1.114	1.298	0.566	1.213	0.442	1.054	0.778	1.739	1.925	1.901	1.623	—
Wed 2026-08-12	—	—	—	1.629	0.876	1.653	1.618	1.553	0.965	0.782	0.640	0.579	0.428	1.164	1.114	1.298	0.566	1.213	0.442	1.054	0.778	1.739	1.925	1.901	1.623	—
Thu 2026-08-06	—	—	—	1.356	1.338	1.391	1.785	1.742	1.374	0.767	0.745	0.807	0.460	1.345	1.125	1.045	0.661	0.975	0.579	1.017	0.916	1.674	1.769	1.844	1.332	—
Mon 2026-08-03	—	—	—	1.447	1.888	1.337	2.094	1.448	1.207	0.718	0.650	0.643	0.751	1.159	1.368	1.406	1.027	1.117	1.335	1.319	1.164	1.713	1.944	2.195	1.616	—
Thu 2026-07-30	—	—	—	1.277	0.898	1.157	1.473	1.457	1.059	0.763	0.796	0.946	0.654	1.307	1.869	2.011	0.639	1.688	1.370	1.194	0.728	1.622	1.989	1.876	0.847	—
Mon 2026-07-27	—	—	—	1.327	0.389	1.396	0.509	1.613	1.069	0.708	0.863	1.039	1.013	1.036	1.356	1.299	0.621	1.029	1.169	1.138	0.692	1.453	1.526	1.502	0.622	—
Thu 2026-07-23	—	—	—	1.790	1.336	1.726	1.505	1.507	1.037	0.698	0.886	1.054	1.322	0.989	1.396	1.497	0.702	1.180	1.524	1.671	0.974	2.053	2.570	2.909	1.571	3.125
Mon 2026-07-20	—	—	—	1.961	1.521	1.852	1.268	2.643	1.364	1.420	1.586	1.651	0.939	1.637	2.320	2.500	1.005	1.759	2.137	2.163	1.088	2.411	3.048	3.514	1.630	3.125
Thu 2026-07-16	—	—	—	1.734	1.148	1.678	2.305	2.618	1.400	1.571	1.555	1.701	0.927	1.897	2.296	3.076	1.564	2.700	0.856	2.082	1.399	2.132	2.903	3.128	2.150	3.125
Mon 2026-07-13	—	—	—	1.635	1.303	2.068	1.655	1.430	1.032	0.672	0.744	0.736	0.987	1.117	1.153	1.443	0.939	1.202	1.479	1.734	1.095	1.652	2.104	2.474	0.910	—
Thu 2026-07-09	—	—	—	1.001	0.605	0.867	1.156	1.093	0.641	0.295	0.310	0.248	0.483	0.682	0.529	0.688	0.514	0.506	0.446	0.869	0.561	1.268	1.404	1.392	0.678	—
Mon 2026-07-06	—	—	—	0.848	0.493	0.633	0.461	2.498	1.297	1.304	1.529	1.259	0.686	1.538	1.588	1.160	0.867	1.205	1.093	0.929	0.592	1.501	1.604	1.645	0.948	—
Thu 2026-07-02	—	—	—	2.893	2.337	2.883	4.048	4.461	2.459	2.412	3.282	2.982	1.121	3.290	3.561	2.715	2.568	2.814	2.164	3.082	2.302	3.245	4.401	4.509	3.392	—
Mon 2026-06-29	—	—	—	1.823	1.850	2.034	1.242	1.171	0.957	0.670	1.032	0.838	0.762	0.786	0.860	0.825	0.492	0.817	0.856	0.796	0.694	1.781	2.383	1.878	1.543	—
Thu 2026-06-25	—	—	—	0.714	0.467	0.703	0.615	0.499	0.646	0.676	1.292	1.196	1.708	0.572	0.651	1.313	1.084	0.918	0.376	0.737	0.441	0.815	0.847	0.800	1.101	—
Mon 2026-06-22	—	—	—	0.788	0.384	0.881	0.429	0.857	0.571	0.480	0.461	0.446	0.428	0.588	0.728	0.644	0.457	0.739	0.763	0.850	0.403	0.987	0.957	0.802	1.468	—
Thu 2026-06-18	—	—	—	—	—	0.607	0.538	0.596	0.688	0.384	0.426	0.346	0.210	0.288	0.526	0.422	0.499	0.642	0.890	0.601	0.497	0.471	0.470	0.514	1.091	—
Mon 2026-06-15	—	—	—	—	—	0.724	0.339	0.432	0.344	0.395	0.506	0.497	0.450	0.435	0.584	0.606	0.484	0.580	0.714	0.780	0.615	0.502	0.549	0.654	0.792	—
Fri 2026-06-12	—	—	—	—	—	0.491	0.441	0.391	0.346	0.428	0.464	0.401	0.544	0.506	0.727	0.694	0.783	0.547	0.903	0.916	1.059	0.949	0.426	0.408	0.562	—
Thu 2026-06-11	—	—	—	—	—	0.530	0.447	0.297	0.232	0.320	0.259	0.326	0.705	0.417	0.401	0.500	0.350	0.667	0.451	0.548	0.413	0.511	0.426	0.408	0.562	—
Mon 2026-06-08	—	—	—	—	—	0.284	0.550	0.492	0.417	0.557	0.427	0.463	0.310	0.645	0.356	0.524	0.310	0.813	0.469	0.652	0.308	0.699	0.568	0.380	0.433	—
Thu 2026-06-04	—	—	—	—	—	0.731	0.782	0.656	0.879	0.683	0.723	1.022	1.184	0.852	0.773	1.176	0.385	1.078	0.395	1.089	0.713	1.595	1.940	1.837	0.688	—
Mon 2026-06-01	—	0.734	0.717	1.008	0.854	0.818	0.910	0.893	1.099	0.437	0.176	0.971	1.010	1.309	1.454	1.275	1.296	1.039	1.169	1.505	1.584	1.713	2.080	1.191	0.851	—
Thu 2026-05-28	—	0.241	0.298	0.376	0.306	0.324	0.389	0.368	0.310	0.404	0.510	0.471	0.496	0.551	0.452	0.528	0.526	0.133	0.056	0.712	0.639	0.772	0.995	0.761	0.698	—
Mon 2026-05-25	—	0.214	0.396	1.136	0.427	0.380	0.267	0.379	0.463	0.509	0.668	0.731	0.719	0.761	0.797	0.713	0.771	0.858	0.682	0.663	0.695	0.772	1.038	0.855	0.988	—
Thu 2026-05-21	—	0.310	0.391	0.384	0.454	0.500	0.467	0.538	0.547	0.614	0.700	0.785	0.677	0.794	0.894	0.785	0.792	0.904	0.929	0.748	0.870	0.905	1.055	1.155	1.291	—
Mon 2026-05-18	—	0.428	0.433	0.404	0.455	0.491	0.523	0.626	0.570	0.640	0.636	0.680	0.607	0.878	0.974	0.914	0.920	1.102	1.281	1.090	1.067	1.341	1.483	1.582	1.559	—
Thu 2026-05-14	—	0.711	0.462	0.491	0.591	0.460	0.492	0.503	0.669	0.426	0.590	0.481	0.639	0.631	0.621	0.724	0.894	—	—	—	0.630	—	—	—	—	—
Mon 2026-05-11	—	0.201	0.187	0.257	0.662	0.311	0.365	0.386	0.732	—	—	2.252	0.940	—	—	—	1.110	—	—	—	0.623	—	—	—	—	—
Thu 2026-05-07	1.771	—	—	0.109	0.800	—	—	0.289	1.090	—	—	—	1.104	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tue 2026-05-05	1.771	—	—	1.616	0.735	—	—	—	0.851	—	—	—	1.047	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Phase 2b · `v2026-10-04_135408` Δ -0.004 vs prev train

Lean blender, 13 features. Trained 2026-10-04. Metric: Test MAE (°C).

Lead	Blend	Best single	Δ vs best
+24h	0.721	temp_aifs (0.694)	+3.9%
+48h	0.792	temp_aifs (0.744)	+6.5%
+72h	0.922	temp_aifs (0.850)	+8.5%
+96h	1.059	temp_aifs (0.957)	+10.7%
+120h	1.285	temp_aifs (1.084)	+18.5%

Verify history (44 runs)

Run (UTC)	Version	N	+24h	+48h	+72h	+96h	+120h
Mon 2026-10-05	`v2026-09-13_135108` `v2026-09-27_140018`	204	0.672 temp_icon: 0.575	0.683 temp_aifs: 0.660	1.023 temp_mf: 1.130	1.022 temp_mf: 0.457	1.175 temp_aifs: 0.686
Thu 2026-10-01	`v2026-09-13_135108`	336	0.931 temp_aifs: 0.384	0.678 temp_aifs: 0.476	0.873 temp_aifs: 0.510	1.072 temp_aifs: 0.747	1.286 temp_aifs: 1.027
Mon 2026-09-28	`v2026-09-13_135108`	336	0.718 temp_aifs: 0.514	0.620 temp_aifs: 0.475	0.843 temp_aifs: 0.525	1.094 temp_aifs: 0.794	1.286 temp_aifs: 1.027
Mon 2026-09-14	`v2026-08-30_135623` `v2026-09-06_135725`	672	0.868 temp_aifs: 0.504	0.633 temp_icon: 0.592	0.919 temp_icon: 0.684	1.084 temp_icon: 0.860	1.376 temp_icon: 0.934
Thu 2026-09-10	`v2026-08-23_134935` `v2026-08-30_135623`	672	1.059 temp_aifs: 0.556	0.703 temp_icon: 0.524	0.930 temp_aifs: 0.455	1.212 temp_mf: 0.419	1.335 temp_aifs: 0.867
Mon 2026-09-07	`v2026-08-23_134935` `v2026-08-30_135623`	672	1.146 temp_aifs: 0.752	0.646 temp_aifs: 0.627	0.827 temp_aifs: 0.704	0.996 temp_aifs: 0.722	1.209 temp_aifs: 0.817
Thu 2026-09-03	`v2026-08-09_140804` `v2026-08-23_134935`	704	1.197 temp_aifs: 0.711	0.821 temp_aifs: 0.656	1.325 temp_aifs: 0.785	1.892 temp_mf: 0.813	1.372 temp_aifs: 0.954
Mon 2026-08-31	`v2026-08-09_140804` `v2026-08-23_134935`	728	1.363 temp_icon: 0.342	0.834 temp_icon: 0.799	1.139 temp_aifs: 0.851	1.259 temp_icon: 0.959	1.524 temp_aifs: 1.165
Thu 2026-08-27	`v2026-08-09_140804`	752	1.615 temp_ecmwf: 0.811	1.299 temp_mf: 0.924	1.871 temp_icon: 1.136	2.125 temp_mf: 1.128	2.385 temp_ecmwf: 1.662
Mon 2026-08-24	`v2026-08-09_140804`	724	1.745 temp_ecmwf: 0.943	1.532 temp_ecmwf: 1.096	2.218 temp_aifs: 1.366	2.692 temp_mf: 1.522	3.279 temp_ecmwf: 2.271
Thu 2026-08-20	`v2026-08-02_135147` `v2026-08-09_140804`	576	1.807 temp_ecmwf: 1.109	1.680 temp_aifs: 1.163	2.548 temp_aifs: 1.103	2.773 temp_aifs: 1.006	2.411 temp_aifs: 1.466
Mon 2026-08-17	`v2026-08-02_135147` `v2026-08-09_140804`	576	1.439 temp_ecmwf: 0.685	1.050 temp_aifs: 0.947	1.220 temp_aifs: 1.026	1.589 temp_aifs: 1.292	2.232 temp_aifs: 1.338
Thu 2026-08-13	`v2026-07-26_135822` `v2026-08-02_135147`	624	1.240 temp_ecmwf: 0.709	0.821 temp_icon: 0.720	1.095 temp_icon: 0.753	1.192 temp_icon: 0.763	1.522 temp_aifs: 1.068
Wed 2026-08-12	`v2026-07-26_135822` `v2026-08-02_135147`	624	1.240 temp_ecmwf: 0.709	0.821 temp_icon: 0.720	1.095 temp_icon: 0.753	1.192 temp_icon: 0.763	1.522 temp_aifs: 1.068
Thu 2026-08-06	`v2026-07-19_135314` `v2026-07-26_135822`	624	0.936 temp_aifs: 0.566	0.785 temp_aifs: 0.654	1.197 temp_aifs: 0.715	1.169 temp_aifs: 0.623	1.464 temp_aifs: 0.921
Mon 2026-08-03	`v2026-07-19_135314` `v2026-07-26_135822`	624	0.854 temp_aifs: 0.404	0.820 temp_aifs: 0.719	1.114 temp_aifs: 0.882	1.231 temp_aifs: 0.902	1.571 temp_aifs: 0.818
Thu 2026-07-30	`v2026-07-12_135640` `v2026-07-19_135314`	624	1.073 temp_aifs: 0.703	1.019 temp_aifs: 0.800	1.423 temp_aifs: 1.229	1.751 temp_gfs: 1.408	1.577 temp_aifs: 0.926
Mon 2026-07-27	`v2026-07-12_135640` `v2026-07-19_135314`	624	1.296 temp_aifs: 0.992	0.879 temp_aifs: 0.841	1.083 temp_aifs: 0.812	1.240 temp_aifs: 0.788	1.332 temp_aifs: 0.838
Thu 2026-07-23	`v2026-07-05_135325` `v2026-07-12_135640`	624	1.042 temp_ecmwf: 0.745	0.763 temp_ecmwf: 0.890	0.910 temp_aifs: 0.782	1.320 temp_aifs: 0.885	1.969 temp_aifs: 1.419
Mon 2026-07-20	`v2026-07-05_135325` `v2026-07-12_135640`	624	1.285 temp_ecmwf: 0.631	1.561 temp_aifs: 1.089	2.021 temp_aifs: 1.217	1.977 temp_ecmwf: 1.396	2.343 temp_icon: 1.193
Thu 2026-07-16	`v2026-06-28_140834` `v2026-07-05_135325`	648	1.671 temp_aifs: 0.926	1.715 temp_aifs: 1.003	2.415 temp_aifs: 0.983	2.723 temp_aifs: 1.058	2.312 temp_aifs: 1.265
Mon 2026-07-13	`v2026-06-28_140834` `v2026-07-05_135325`	648	1.787 temp_aifs: 0.694	0.854 temp_ecmwf: 0.727	1.186 temp_aifs: 0.987	1.297 temp_aifs: 1.181	1.814 temp_aifs: 1.265
Thu 2026-07-09	`v2026-06-21_135711` `v2026-06-28_140834`	648	0.614 temp_ecmwf: 0.457	0.410 temp_ecmwf: 0.486	0.628 temp_ecmwf: 0.530	0.593 temp_ecmwf: 0.279	1.045 temp_aifs: 0.819
Mon 2026-07-06	`v2026-06-21_135711` `v2026-06-28_140834`	648	0.398 temp_ecmwf: 0.242	1.302 temp_aifs: 0.952	1.333 temp_ecmwf: 0.847	1.101 temp_ecmwf: 0.831	1.285 temp_aifs: 0.893
Thu 2026-07-02	`v2026-06-14_134518` `v2026-06-21_135711`	672	2.348 temp_aifs: 1.040	2.512 temp_aifs: 1.132	3.011 temp_icon: 1.335	2.603 temp_icon: 0.669	2.787 temp_gfs: 1.701
Mon 2026-06-29	`v2026-06-14_134518` `v2026-06-21_135711`	672	1.187 temp_gfs: 0.873	0.756 temp_ecmwf: 0.776	0.765 temp_ecmwf: 0.803	0.889 temp_ecmwf: 0.934	1.333 temp_aifs: 1.222
Thu 2026-06-25	`v2026-06-07_131530` `v2026-06-14_134518`	720	0.564 temp_ecmwf: 0.679	0.821 temp_ecmwf: 0.683	0.655 temp_ecmwf: 0.742	0.966 temp_ecmwf: 0.792	0.906 temp_ecmwf: 1.150
Mon 2026-06-22	`v2026-06-07_131530` `v2026-06-14_134518`	720	0.543 temp_aifs: 0.471	0.599 temp_aifs: 0.673	0.663 temp_aifs: 0.691	0.783 temp_ecmwf: 0.950	1.091 temp_ecmwf: 1.156
Thu 2026-06-18	`v2026-06-05_091025` `v2026-06-07_131530`	384	0.564 temp_icon: 0.524	0.443 temp_aifs: 0.468	0.466 temp_mf: 0.578	0.696 temp_aifs: 0.590	0.516 temp_aifs: 0.415
Mon 2026-06-15	`v2026-06-01_214702` `v2026-06-05_091025` `v2026-06-07_131530`	336	0.694 temp_aifs: 0.558	0.442 temp_aifs: 0.472	0.545 temp_aifs: 0.547	0.592 temp_ecmwf: 0.817	0.540 temp_aifs: 0.767
Fri 2026-06-12	`v2026-06-01_214702` `v2026-06-05_091025`	336	0.354 temp_aifs: 0.522	0.384 temp_aifs: 0.502	0.527 temp_aifs: 0.725	0.640 temp_mf: 0.764	0.835 temp_gfs: 0.871
Thu 2026-06-11	`v2026-05-26_104311` `v2026-06-01_214702`	528	0.458 temp_aifs: 0.354	0.295 temp_aifs: 0.416	0.565 temp_aifs: 0.238	0.617 temp_aifs: 0.724	0.463 temp_aifs: 0.745
Mon 2026-06-08	`v2026-05-26_104311` `v2026-05-31_201040`	528	0.285 temp_aifs: 0.338	0.636 temp_ecmwf: 0.753	0.699 temp_aifs: 0.746	0.776 temp_aifs: 0.718	0.670 temp_aifs: 0.711
Thu 2026-06-04	`v2026-05-17_173452` `v2026-05-24_130255` `v2026-05-26_104311`	744	1.041 temp_aifs: 0.927	0.668 temp_gfs: 0.994	1.139 temp_aifs: 1.137	0.869 temp_ecmwf: 1.252	1.829 temp_aifs: 1.749
Mon 2026-06-01	`v2026-05-17_173452` `v2026-05-24_130255`	744	1.309 temp_ecmwf: 1.164	1.477 temp_ecmwf: 1.035	1.351 temp_ecmwf: 1.401	1.655 temp_gfs: 1.812	1.851 temp_aifs: 1.876
Thu 2026-05-28	`v2026-04-28_232613` `v2026-05-17_173452`	1600	0.424 temp_aifs: 0.429	0.418 temp_aifs: 0.477	0.491 temp_icon: 0.413	0.682 temp_icon: 0.575	0.672 temp_ecmwf: 0.767
Mon 2026-05-25	`v2026-04-28_232613` `v2026-05-17_173452`	2012	0.452 temp_icon: 0.413	0.489 temp_icon: 0.660	0.725 temp_ecmwf: 0.767	0.783 temp_ecmwf: 0.891	0.731 temp_ecmwf: 0.795
Thu 2026-05-21	`v2026-04-28_232613`	2012	0.511 temp_icon: 0.566	0.609 temp_ecmwf: 0.775	0.823 temp_aifs: 0.899	0.857 temp_aifs: 0.945	0.976 temp_ecmwf: 1.069
Mon 2026-05-18	`v2026-04-28_232613`	1694	0.516 temp_aifs: 0.586	0.688 temp_ecmwf: 0.772	0.790 temp_aifs: 0.782	1.078 temp_aifs: 1.098	1.360 temp_aifs: 1.147
Thu 2026-05-14	`v2026-04-28_232613`	388	0.561 temp_aifs: 0.598	0.637 temp_ecmwf: 0.689	0.619 temp_aifs: 0.703	0.897 temp_aifs: 0.764	0.495 temp_ecmwf: 0.778
Mon 2026-05-11	`v2026-04-28_232613`	173	0.576 temp_aifs: 0.558	0.813 temp_aifs: 0.798	0.906 temp_ecmwf: 0.805	1.013 temp_aifs: 0.814	0.527 temp_ecmwf: 0.944
Thu 2026-05-07	`v2026-04-27_204454` `v2026-04-28_232613`	9	1.202 temp_aifs: 0.556	1.076 temp_gem: 0.629	0.606 temp_gem: 0.700	—	—
Tue 2026-05-05	`v2026-04-21_201231_phase2redo` `v2026-04-27_174346` `v2026-04-27_204454`	13	0.182 temp_icon: 0.000	1.580 temp_icon: 0.000	0.962 temp_gem: 1.054	—	—
Sun 2026-05-03	`v2026-04-21_201231_phase2redo`	14	0.959 temp_mf: 0.743	0.943 temp_ecmwf: 1.122	0.888 temp_gem: 0.375	—	—

By actual NWP forecast lead (6h buckets)

Run (UTC)	-12--7h	-6--1h	0-5h	6-11h	12-17h	18-23h	24-29h	30-35h	36-41h	42-47h	48-53h	54-59h	60-65h	66-71h	72-77h	78-83h	84-89h	90-95h	96-101h	102-107h	108-113h	114-119h	120-125h	126-131h	132-137h	138-143h	144-149h
Mon 2026-10-05	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.696	0.409	0.870	0.835	0.702	0.599	0.753	0.527	1.220	0.483	0.534	0.929	1.099	0.638	—	—	0.986	1.387	1.421	1.244	—
Thu 2026-10-01	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.965	0.938	1.019	0.460	0.719	0.612	0.748	0.281	0.850	0.930	1.041	0.570	1.028	1.002	1.376	1.488	1.167	1.518	1.830	1.356	—
Mon 2026-09-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.699	0.768	0.905	0.411	0.616	0.607	0.713	0.532	0.814	0.930	1.041	0.570	1.063	1.002	1.376	1.488	1.167	1.518	1.830	1.356	—
Mon 2026-09-14	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.839	1.186	1.071	0.682	0.650	0.601	0.657	0.376	0.855	1.092	1.195	0.754	1.016	1.234	1.431	1.011	1.354	1.388	1.672	1.112	—
Thu 2026-09-10	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.046	1.021	1.351	0.830	0.750	0.572	0.657	0.300	0.890	1.013	1.268	0.874	1.196	1.386	0.927	0.958	1.323	1.400	1.447	0.950	—
Mon 2026-09-07	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.236	0.165	0.832	0.390	0.650	0.760	0.560	0.290	0.851	0.977	0.567	0.346	1.040	0.919	0.766	1.076	1.263	1.238	0.973	0.608	—
Thu 2026-09-03	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.263	1.181	0.970	0.539	0.848	0.767	0.838	0.353	1.354	1.345	1.175	0.541	1.973	1.000	1.224	0.719	1.372	1.516	1.350	0.734	—
Mon 2026-08-31	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.396	0.997	1.293	1.025	0.865	0.820	0.738	0.539	1.150	1.193	1.158	0.662	1.260	1.347	1.333	0.670	1.513	1.678	1.589	0.860	—
Thu 2026-08-27	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.541	1.835	1.920	1.107	1.284	1.351	1.528	0.708	1.869	2.100	1.863	0.957	2.146	2.202	2.225	1.149	2.447	2.493	2.300	0.968	—
Mon 2026-08-24	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.682	2.007	2.010	1.025	1.459	1.758	1.924	0.870	2.175	2.609	2.279	1.139	2.664	2.918	2.930	1.550	3.356	3.438	3.212	1.036	—
Thu 2026-08-20	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.761	2.192	1.867	0.771	1.568	2.097	2.054	1.035	2.489	3.362	2.213	0.259	2.974	0.563	1.850	1.117	2.310	2.949	2.646	1.349	—
Mon 2026-08-17	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.475	1.037	1.328	0.987	1.125	0.884	0.928	0.783	1.223	1.269	1.244	0.924	1.595	1.584	1.634	1.392	2.133	2.598	2.576	1.780	—
Thu 2026-08-13	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.297	1.125	1.168	0.769	0.864	0.788	0.690	0.349	1.093	1.080	1.236	0.859	1.254	0.504	1.273	0.790	1.467	1.687	1.634	1.552	—
Wed 2026-08-12	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.297	1.125	1.168	0.769	0.864	0.788	0.690	0.349	1.093	1.080	1.236	0.859	1.254	0.504	1.273	0.790	1.467	1.687	1.634	1.552	—
Thu 2026-08-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.904	1.071	1.057	0.690	0.742	0.957	0.942	0.542	1.245	1.088	1.094	0.689	1.218	0.631	1.119	0.842	1.430	1.519	1.682	1.298	—
Mon 2026-08-03	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.800	1.448	1.077	0.660	0.874	0.754	0.684	0.461	1.102	1.196	1.235	0.689	1.178	1.388	1.415	1.105	1.476	1.719	2.073	1.599	—
Thu 2026-07-30	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.121	1.079	0.987	0.276	1.078	0.946	0.959	0.222	1.413	1.555	1.748	0.205	1.814	1.051	1.417	0.719	1.554	1.821	1.714	0.646	—
Mon 2026-07-27	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.364	0.544	1.091	0.755	0.837	0.958	1.063	0.859	1.078	1.202	1.099	0.631	1.228	1.392	1.296	0.681	1.358	1.349	1.392	0.576	—
Thu 2026-07-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.081	0.925	0.982	0.902	0.683	0.883	1.095	1.133	0.904	1.107	0.863	0.189	1.322	1.303	1.875	1.000	1.850	2.265	2.547	1.479	2.715
Mon 2026-07-20	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.337	0.715	2.155	1.041	1.555	1.633	1.702	1.023	1.920	2.452	2.524	0.837	1.896	2.304	2.412	1.052	2.218	2.712	3.074	1.418	2.715
Thu 2026-07-16	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.619	1.830	2.092	0.984	1.779	1.494	1.787	1.111	2.392	2.552	2.989	0.904	2.901	0.755	2.019	1.243	2.086	2.791	3.050	1.981	2.715
Mon 2026-07-13	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.834	1.267	0.965	0.633	0.802	0.894	0.963	1.134	1.171	1.189	1.488	0.792	1.231	1.431	1.722	0.932	1.716	2.119	2.491	0.797	—
Thu 2026-07-09	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.564	0.769	0.789	0.508	0.389	0.436	0.528	0.439	0.631	0.593	0.713	0.494	0.602	0.495	0.788	0.576	1.037	1.110	1.110	0.756	—
Mon 2026-07-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.393	0.447	1.819	0.731	1.317	1.416	1.259	0.702	1.434	1.350	0.931	0.572	1.166	1.050	0.856	0.645	1.296	1.283	1.334	0.929	—
Thu 2026-07-02	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.080	3.146	3.497	1.247	2.400	3.081	2.949	1.069	3.079	3.220	2.194	1.797	2.741	1.412	2.882	2.029	2.525	3.487	3.609	2.502	—
Mon 2026-06-29	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.252	0.634	0.740	0.469	0.691	0.899	0.940	0.869	0.752	0.796	0.802	0.791	0.908	0.923	0.808	0.595	1.273	1.691	1.416	0.821	—
Thu 2026-06-25	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.525	0.623	0.710	0.739	0.699	1.107	1.310	1.055	0.538	0.891	1.146	1.552	0.997	0.497	0.927	0.570	0.874	0.937	0.933	1.253	—
Mon 2026-06-22	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.546	0.493	0.656	0.589	0.595	0.589	0.650	0.593	0.629	0.754	0.697	0.741	0.735	0.828	1.107	0.510	1.099	1.054	0.948	1.563	—
Thu 2026-06-18	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.585	0.481	0.552	0.579	0.464	0.453	0.335	0.225	0.442	0.601	0.451	0.495	0.678	0.890	0.397	0.549	0.437	0.571	0.646	2.227	—
Mon 2026-06-15	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.715	0.467	0.532	0.438	0.388	0.648	0.524	0.306	0.526	0.768	0.272	0.477	0.532	0.759	0.779	0.680	0.552	0.501	0.456	0.634	—
Fri 2026-06-12	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.332	0.470	0.315	0.272	0.383	0.386	0.338	0.499	0.496	0.618	0.588	0.709	0.525	1.086	0.985	1.265	0.835	0.425	0.352	0.393	—
Thu 2026-06-11	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.500	0.386	0.296	0.193	0.299	0.263	0.233	0.479	0.565	0.405	0.521	0.222	0.688	0.416	0.494	0.339	0.486	0.425	0.352	0.393	—
Mon 2026-06-08	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.285	0.569	0.496	0.371	0.691	0.483	0.585	0.263	0.774	0.443	0.691	0.266	0.868	0.480	0.641	0.326	0.687	0.721	0.452	0.556	—
Thu 2026-06-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.112	0.977	0.590	0.817	0.656	0.576	1.064	1.220	1.204	0.838	1.327	0.411	0.917	0.347	1.683	0.885	1.740	2.270	2.125	0.949	—
Mon 2026-06-01	—	—	2.162	1.591	1.446	1.244	1.222	1.336	1.278	1.434	0.770	0.965	1.267	1.290	1.536	1.574	1.544	1.730	1.335	1.561	1.694	1.785	2.089	2.389	1.455	1.055	—
Thu 2026-05-28	—	—	0.386	0.408	0.417	0.359	0.425	0.410	0.465	0.421	0.433	0.448	0.457	0.541	0.711	0.541	0.604	0.548	0.560	0.261	0.629	0.591	0.778	0.803	0.584	0.713	—
Mon 2026-05-25	—	—	0.266	0.332	1.050	0.204	0.016	0.226	0.410	0.509	0.516	0.703	0.751	0.703	0.736	0.716	0.689	0.754	0.852	0.649	0.654	0.668	0.829	0.876	0.688	0.804	—
Thu 2026-05-21	—	—	0.476	0.575	0.499	0.578	0.533	0.513	0.608	0.607	0.657	0.788	0.875	0.718	0.765	0.867	0.774	0.744	0.946	0.933	0.832	0.886	0.933	1.031	1.158	1.134	—
Mon 2026-05-18	—	—	0.646	0.642	0.535	0.530	0.487	0.575	0.709	0.621	0.679	0.725	0.772	0.675	0.876	0.978	0.891	0.943	1.223	1.362	1.213	1.076	1.397	1.680	1.738	1.618	—
Thu 2026-05-14	—	—	0.851	0.634	0.543	0.656	0.485	0.523	0.549	0.691	0.502	0.597	0.525	0.628	0.536	0.657	0.703	0.883	—	—	—	0.495	—	—	—	—	—
Mon 2026-05-11	—	—	0.660	0.451	0.451	0.756	0.376	0.427	0.473	0.766	—	0.606	2.354	0.906	—	—	—	1.013	—	—	—	0.527	—	—	—	—	—
Thu 2026-05-07	0.977	0.977	—	0.182	0.392	1.202	—	0.057	0.585	1.577	—	0.606	—	1.950	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tue 2026-05-05	0.977	0.977	—	0.182	1.580	0.228	—	—	—	0.993	—	—	—	0.962	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Phase 2d · `v2026-10-04_135637_phase2d` Δ +0.002 vs prev train

Exact-runtime blender. Trains on raw S3 cycles (GFS + AIFS required, IFS oper + MO Global + UKV optional) instead of Open-Meteo offset_day, with rigorous (RunTime, ValidTime, Lead) provenance per row. UKV pulled per-V-hour from 03Z + 15Z cycles. Trained 2026-10-04. Metric: Test MAE (°C).

Lead	Blend	Best single	Δ vs best
+12h	0.732	temp_ifs (1.290)	-43.3%
+24h	0.769	temp_ifs (1.260)	-39.0%
+48h	0.830	temp_gefsmean (1.435)	-42.1%
+72h	0.770	temp_moglobal (1.268)	-39.3%
+96h	0.924	temp_ifs (1.188)	-22.2%
+120h	1.122	temp_ifs (1.350)	-16.9%

Verify history (40 runs)

Run (UTC)	Version	N	+12h	+24h	+48h	+72h	+96h	+120h
Mon 2026-10-05	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-09-27_140300_phase2d`	62	0.447 —	0.572 —	0.568 —	0.984 —	1.685 —	0.933 —
Thu 2026-10-01	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-09-13_135410_phase2d`	81	0.565 —	0.528 —	0.498 —	0.742 —	0.824 —	0.971 —
Mon 2026-09-28	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-09-13_135410_phase2d`	147	0.504 —	0.443 —	0.421 —	0.646 —	0.830 —	0.934 —
Mon 2026-09-14	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-09-06_140001_phase2d`	179	0.328 —	0.381 —	0.604 —	0.691 —	0.863 —	1.170 —
Thu 2026-09-10	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-08-30_135830_phase2d`	180	0.541 —	0.571 —	0.808 —	0.504 —	0.630 —	0.997 —
Mon 2026-09-07	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-08-30_135830_phase2d`	172	0.438 —	0.487 —	0.602 —	0.635 —	0.759 —	0.888 —
Thu 2026-09-03	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-08-23_135219_phase2d`	162	0.536 —	0.738 —	0.845 —	0.724 —	0.880 —	0.987 —
Mon 2026-08-31	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-08-23_135219_phase2d`	166	0.390 —	0.573 —	0.854 —	0.789 —	0.956 —	1.242 —
Thu 2026-08-27	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-08-09_141026_phase2d`	226	0.947 —	0.941 —	1.241 —	1.875 —	2.199 —	2.412 —
Mon 2026-08-24	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-08-09_141026_phase2d`	228	1.287 —	1.208 —	1.396 —	2.309 —	2.542 —	2.839 —
Thu 2026-08-20	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-08-09_141026_phase2d`	159	1.707 —	1.561 —	1.496 —	1.887 —	1.883 —	2.176 —
Mon 2026-08-17	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-08-09_141026_phase2d`	155	1.419 —	1.180 —	0.820 —	1.255 —	1.229 —	1.554 —
Thu 2026-08-13	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-08-02_135436_phase2d`	163	0.862 —	0.787 —	0.974 —	0.963 —	0.962 —	1.236 —
Wed 2026-08-12	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-08-02_135436_phase2d`	176	0.862 —	0.787 —	0.974 —	0.952 —	0.921 —	1.157 —
Thu 2026-08-06	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-26_140108_phase2d`	163	0.493 —	0.524 —	0.795 —	1.189 —	1.317 —	1.343 —
Mon 2026-08-03	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-26_140108_phase2d`	163	0.479 —	0.301 —	0.366 —	1.171 —	1.230 —	1.381 —
Thu 2026-07-30	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-19_135526_phase2d`	163	0.530 —	0.509 —	0.642 —	1.478 —	1.567 —	1.750 —
Mon 2026-07-27	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-19_135526_phase2d`	163	0.451 —	0.432 —	0.277 —	1.600 —	1.833 —	1.899 —
Thu 2026-07-23	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-12_135827_phase2d`	163	1.004 —	0.974 —	0.957 —	2.441 —	2.602 —	2.686 —
Mon 2026-07-20	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-12_135827_phase2d`	167	1.257 —	1.130 —	0.690 —	2.842 —	2.981 —	3.133 —
Thu 2026-07-16	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-05_135520_phase2d`	167	1.706 —	1.700 —	2.058 —	1.951 —	2.102 —	2.297 —
Mon 2026-07-13	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-05_135520_phase2d`	165	1.281 —	1.618 —	2.167 —	1.093 —	1.083 —	1.239 —
Thu 2026-07-09	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-28_141013_phase2d`	167	0.371 —	0.314 —	0.382 —	1.001 —	1.060 —	1.201 —
Mon 2026-07-06	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-28_141013_phase2d`	177	0.427 —	0.428 —	0.515 —	2.046 —	2.180 —	2.568 —
Thu 2026-07-02	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-21_135847_phase2d`	173	1.917 —	2.005 —	2.771 —	2.183 —	2.366 —	2.537 —
Mon 2026-06-29	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-21_135847_phase2d`	171	0.853 —	0.794 —	1.152 —	1.048 —	1.093 —	0.988 —
Thu 2026-06-25	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-14_134717_phase2d`	179	0.494 —	0.551 —	0.527 —	0.615 —	0.981 —	0.915 —
Mon 2026-06-22	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-14_134717_phase2d`	185	0.445 —	0.654 —	0.498 —	0.452 —	0.829 —	0.805 —
Thu 2026-06-18	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-07_131721_phase2d`	186	0.394 —	0.383 —	0.425 —	0.524 —	0.600 —	0.584 —
Mon 2026-06-15	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-07_131721_phase2d`	194	0.368 —	0.334 —	0.333 —	0.542 —	0.601 —	0.646 —
Fri 2026-06-12	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-31_201225_phase2d` `v2026-06-07_131721_phase2d`	235	0.219 —	0.330 —	0.331 —	0.531 —	0.621 —	0.795 —
Thu 2026-06-11	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-31_201225_phase2d`	212	0.346 —	0.322 —	0.306 —	0.550 —	0.588 —	0.836 —
Mon 2026-06-08	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-31_201225_phase2d`	197	0.459 —	0.383 —	0.297 —	1.033 —	1.108 —	1.379 —
Thu 2026-06-04	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-26_104427_phase2d`	128	1.292 —	1.058 —	0.891 —	1.666 —	1.802 —	1.999 —
Mon 2026-06-01	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-24_130417_phase2d` `v2026-05-26_104427_phase2d`	83	1.990 —	1.898 —	2.192 —	1.966 —	1.783 —	1.743 —
Thu 2026-05-28	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-17_173814_phase2d`	24	0.366 —	0.582 —	0.453 —	0.431 —	0.288 —	0.299 —
Mon 2026-05-25	`v2026-05-08_060055_phase2d` `v2026-05-09_083929_phase2d` `v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-17_173814_phase2d`	110	0.650 —	0.632 —	0.482 —	0.493 —	0.655 —	0.671 —
Thu 2026-05-21	`v2026-05-08_055817_phase2d` `v2026-05-08_060055_phase2d`	91	0.334 —	0.464 —	0.432 —	0.689 —	0.866 —	0.675 —
Mon 2026-05-18	`v2026-05-08_055817_phase2d` `v2026-05-08_060055_phase2d`	45	0.227 —	0.205 —	0.460 —	0.564 —	—	—
Thu 2026-05-14	`v2026-05-05_182234_phase2d`	12	0.376 —	0.697 —	—	—	—	—

By actual NWP forecast lead (6h buckets)

Run (UTC)	-48--43h	-42--37h	-36--31h	-30--25h	-24--19h	-18--13h	-12--7h	-6--1h	0-5h	6-11h	12-17h	18-23h	24-29h	30-35h	36-41h	42-47h	48-53h	54-59h	60-65h	66-71h	72-77h	78-83h	84-89h	90-95h	96-101h	102-107h	108-113h
Mon 2026-06-01	1.130	1.052	1.869	2.304	1.782	1.606	2.042	3.314	1.999	1.656	1.984	2.366	2.252	2.379	2.647	2.616	1.960	1.522	1.992	2.752	1.915	1.375	1.839	3.836	1.708	1.161	1.862
Thu 2026-05-28	0.186	0.126	0.234	0.195	0.259	0.068	—	0.435	0.546	0.677	0.531	—	0.370	0.414	0.534	—	0.328	0.418	0.490	—	0.382	0.269	0.261	—	0.284	0.220	0.368
Mon 2026-05-25	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.810	0.606	0.790	0.790	—	0.434	0.553	0.445	—	0.142	0.260	0.765	—	0.640	0.757	0.567	—	0.766	0.646	0.660
Thu 2026-05-21	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.810	0.353	0.438	0.479	—	0.336	0.502	0.400	—	0.632	0.812	0.598	—	1.237	0.989	0.661	—	0.787	0.632	0.697
Mon 2026-05-18	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.217	0.122	0.301	—	0.453	0.517	0.398	—	0.827	0.508	0.514	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Thu 2026-05-14	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.555	0.600	0.607	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—