Temperature models

Phase 2c · `v2026-08-02_135308_phase2c` Δ +0.003 vs prev train

Rich blender, 88 features (adds dew/RH/cloud/wind/pressure). Trained 2026-08-02. Metric: Test MAE (°C).

Lead	Blend	Best single	Δ vs best
+24h	0.586	temp_aifs (0.665)	-11.8%
+48h	0.665	temp_aifs (0.709)	-6.2%
+72h	0.768	temp_aifs (0.794)	-3.2%
+96h	0.924	temp_aifs (0.924)	0.0%
+120h	1.156	temp_aifs (1.066)	+8.4%

Verify history (29 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling MAE (°C). Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC)	Version	N	+12h	+24h	+48h	+72h	+96h	+120h
Mon 2026-08-03	`v2026-07-19_135415_phase2c` `v2026-07-26_135942_phase2c`	624	1.459 temp_aifs: 0.365	1.400 temp_aifs: 0.404	0.701 temp_aifs: 0.719	1.211 temp_aifs: 0.882	1.172 temp_aifs: 0.902	1.788 temp_aifs: 0.818
Thu 2026-07-30	`v2026-07-12_135730_phase2c` `v2026-07-19_135415_phase2c`	624	1.263 temp_aifs: 0.643	1.229 temp_aifs: 0.703	0.779 temp_aifs: 0.800	1.415 temp_aifs: 1.229	1.662 temp_ukmo: 0.723	1.675 temp_aifs: 0.926
Mon 2026-07-27	`v2026-07-12_135730_phase2c` `v2026-07-19_135415_phase2c`	624	1.301 temp_aifs: 0.809	1.322 temp_ukmo: 0.771	0.777 temp_aifs: 0.841	1.096 temp_aifs: 0.812	1.048 temp_aifs: 0.788	1.439 temp_aifs: 0.838
Thu 2026-07-23	`v2026-07-05_135420_phase2c` `v2026-07-12_135730_phase2c`	624	1.773 temp_ecmwf: 0.642	1.648 temp_ecmwf: 0.745	0.777 temp_ecmwf: 0.890	1.073 temp_aifs: 0.782	1.209 temp_aifs: 0.885	2.199 temp_aifs: 1.419
Mon 2026-07-20	`v2026-07-05_135420_phase2c` `v2026-07-12_135730_phase2c`	624	1.949 temp_ecmwf: 0.671	1.803 temp_ecmwf: 0.631	1.450 temp_aifs: 1.089	1.803 temp_aifs: 1.217	1.831 temp_ecmwf: 1.396	2.580 temp_icon: 1.193
Thu 2026-07-16	`v2026-06-28_140921_phase2c` `v2026-07-05_135420_phase2c`	648	1.713 temp_aifs: 0.828	1.849 temp_aifs: 0.926	1.558 temp_aifs: 1.003	2.025 temp_aifs: 0.983	2.546 temp_aifs: 1.058	2.381 temp_aifs: 1.265
Mon 2026-07-13	`v2026-06-28_140921_phase2c` `v2026-07-05_135420_phase2c`	648	1.626 temp_aifs: 0.702	2.033 temp_aifs: 0.694	0.710 temp_ecmwf: 0.727	1.141 temp_aifs: 0.987	1.291 temp_aifs: 1.181	1.769 temp_aifs: 1.265
Thu 2026-07-09	`v2026-06-21_135756_phase2c` `v2026-06-28_140921_phase2c`	648	0.986 temp_aifs: 0.512	0.924 temp_ecmwf: 0.457	0.300 temp_ecmwf: 0.486	0.656 temp_ecmwf: 0.530	0.501 temp_ecmwf: 0.279	1.278 temp_aifs: 0.819
Mon 2026-07-06	`v2026-06-21_135756_phase2c` `v2026-06-28_140921_phase2c`	648	0.839 temp_ecmwf: 0.522	0.619 temp_ecmwf: 0.242	1.310 temp_aifs: 0.952	1.480 temp_ecmwf: 0.847	1.141 temp_ecmwf: 0.831	1.511 temp_aifs: 0.893
Thu 2026-07-02	`v2026-06-15_083940_phase2c` `v2026-06-21_135756_phase2c`	600	2.874 temp_ecmwf: 0.813	3.190 temp_aifs: 1.040	2.552 temp_aifs: 1.132	3.273 temp_icon: 1.335	2.759 temp_icon: 0.669	3.570 temp_gfs: 1.613
Mon 2026-06-29	`v2026-06-15_083940_phase2c` `v2026-06-21_135756_phase2c`	600	1.823 temp_gfs: 0.807	1.968 temp_ukmo: 0.808	0.751 temp_ecmwf: 0.791	0.792 temp_ecmwf: 0.850	0.817 temp_ecmwf: 0.988	1.879 temp_ecmwf: 1.275
Thu 2026-06-25	`v2026-06-07_131622_phase2c` `v2026-06-14_134614_phase2c` `v2026-06-15_083940_phase2c`	720	0.706 temp_aifs: 0.667	0.668 temp_ecmwf: 0.598	0.839 temp_ecmwf: 0.696	0.624 temp_ecmwf: 0.975	0.884 temp_ecmwf: 0.792	0.830 temp_ecmwf: 1.150
Mon 2026-06-22	`v2026-06-07_131622_phase2c` `v2026-06-14_134614_phase2c` `v2026-06-15_083940_phase2c`	720	0.788 temp_aifs: 0.583	0.853 temp_aifs: 0.471	0.471 temp_aifs: 0.673	0.613 temp_aifs: 0.691	0.742 temp_ecmwf: 0.950	0.978 temp_ecmwf: 1.156
Thu 2026-06-18	`v2026-06-01_233346_phase2c` `v2026-06-07_131622_phase2c`	528	—	0.597 temp_icon: 0.524	0.382 temp_aifs: 0.468	0.337 temp_mf: 0.578	0.663 temp_aifs: 0.590	0.499 temp_aifs: 0.542
Mon 2026-06-15	`v2026-06-01_233346_phase2c` `v2026-06-07_131622_phase2c`	528	—	0.692 temp_aifs: 0.558	0.426 temp_aifs: 0.490	0.478 temp_ecmwf: 0.648	0.621 temp_ecmwf: 0.750	0.534 temp_aifs: 0.725
Fri 2026-06-12	`v2026-06-01_233346_phase2c`	432	—	0.468 temp_aifs: 0.403	0.435 temp_aifs: 0.503	0.566 temp_ecmwf: 0.723	0.642 temp_mf: 0.720	0.949 temp_gfs: 0.871
Thu 2026-06-11	`v2026-05-26_104346_phase2c` `v2026-06-01_233346_phase2c`	528	—	0.485 temp_aifs: 0.354	0.325 temp_aifs: 0.401	0.417 temp_aifs: 0.238	0.614 temp_aifs: 0.724	0.490 temp_aifs: 0.745
Mon 2026-06-08	`v2026-05-26_104346_phase2c` `v2026-05-31_201130_phase2c`	528	—	0.284 temp_aifs: 0.338	0.521 temp_ecmwf: 0.753	0.580 temp_aifs: 0.746	0.734 temp_aifs: 0.718	0.646 temp_aifs: 0.711
Thu 2026-06-04	`v2026-05-17_173626_phase2c` `v2026-05-24_130333_phase2c` `v2026-05-26_104346_phase2c`	744	—	0.736 temp_aifs: 0.927	0.707 temp_gfs: 0.994	0.850 temp_aifs: 1.137	1.021 temp_ecmwf: 1.252	1.633 temp_aifs: 1.749
Mon 2026-06-01	`v2026-05-17_173626_phase2c` `v2026-05-24_130333_phase2c`	744	—	0.835 temp_ecmwf: 1.164	0.919 temp_ecmwf: 1.035	1.108 temp_ecmwf: 1.401	1.320 temp_ukmo: 1.773	1.604 temp_aifs: 1.876
Thu 2026-05-28	`v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c` `v2026-05-17_173626_phase2c`	1600	—	0.349 temp_aifs: 0.429	0.367 temp_aifs: 0.477	0.465 temp_icon: 0.413	0.558 temp_icon: 0.575	0.741 temp_ecmwf: 0.767
Mon 2026-05-25	`v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c` `v2026-05-17_173626_phase2c`	2012	—	0.550 temp_ukmo: 0.396	0.477 temp_icon: 0.660	0.744 temp_ecmwf: 0.767	0.796 temp_ecmwf: 0.891	0.769 temp_ecmwf: 0.795
Thu 2026-05-21	`v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c`	2012	—	0.433 temp_icon: 0.566	0.565 temp_ecmwf: 0.775	0.780 temp_aifs: 0.899	0.836 temp_aifs: 0.945	0.958 temp_ecmwf: 1.069
Mon 2026-05-18	`v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c`	1694	—	0.455 temp_aifs: 0.586	0.635 temp_ecmwf: 0.772	0.696 temp_aifs: 0.782	1.029 temp_aifs: 1.098	1.290 temp_aifs: 1.147
Thu 2026-05-14	`v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c`	388	—	0.509 temp_aifs: 0.598	0.597 temp_ecmwf: 0.689	0.615 temp_aifs: 0.703	0.908 temp_aifs: 0.764	0.630 temp_ecmwf: 0.778
Mon 2026-05-11	`v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c`	173	—	0.462 temp_aifs: 0.558	0.789 temp_aifs: 0.798	0.940 temp_ecmwf: 0.805	1.110 temp_aifs: 0.814	0.623 temp_ecmwf: 0.944
Thu 2026-05-07	`v2026-04-27_191724_phase2c` `v2026-04-27_225213_phase2c` `v2026-04-28_232637_phase2c`	9	—	0.800 temp_aifs: 0.556	0.823 temp_gem: 0.717	1.104 temp_gem: 0.000	—	—
Tue 2026-05-05	`v2026-04-23_132453_phase2c` `v2026-04-27_181257_phase2c` `v2026-04-27_191724_phase2c`	9	—	0.735 temp_mf: 0.000	1.616 temp_icon: 0.000	1.047 temp_ecmwf: 1.189	—	—
Sun 2026-05-03	`v2026-04-23_132453_phase2c`	10	—	0.834 temp_mf: 0.740	0.904 temp_gfs: 0.580	—	—	—

By actual NWP forecast lead (6h buckets)

Same data grouped by ValidTime − freshest contributing NWP cycle (6h buckets) instead of trained-lead label. Reveals MAE structure within a trained bucket once predict spread to hourly outputs (2026-05-04+). Buckets start at the trained lead — earlier figures measured from the cron-fire time, which made offset-day models look like sub-lead forecasts.

Run (UTC)	-12--7h	0-5h	6-11h	12-17h	18-23h	24-29h	30-35h	36-41h	42-47h	48-53h	54-59h	60-65h	66-71h	72-77h	78-83h	84-89h	90-95h	96-101h	102-107h	108-113h	114-119h	120-125h	126-131h	132-137h	138-143h	144-149h
Mon 2026-08-03	—	—	—	1.447	1.888	1.337	2.094	1.448	1.207	0.718	0.650	0.643	0.751	1.159	1.368	1.406	1.027	1.117	1.335	1.319	1.164	1.713	1.944	2.195	1.616	—
Thu 2026-07-30	—	—	—	1.277	0.898	1.157	1.473	1.457	1.059	0.763	0.796	0.946	0.654	1.307	1.869	2.011	0.639	1.688	1.370	1.194	0.728	1.622	1.989	1.876	0.847	—
Mon 2026-07-27	—	—	—	1.327	0.389	1.396	0.509	1.613	1.069	0.708	0.863	1.039	1.013	1.036	1.356	1.299	0.621	1.029	1.169	1.138	0.692	1.453	1.526	1.502	0.622	—
Thu 2026-07-23	—	—	—	1.790	1.336	1.726	1.505	1.507	1.037	0.698	0.886	1.054	1.322	0.989	1.396	1.497	0.702	1.180	1.524	1.671	0.974	2.053	2.570	2.909	1.571	3.125
Mon 2026-07-20	—	—	—	1.961	1.521	1.852	1.268	2.643	1.364	1.420	1.586	1.651	0.939	1.637	2.320	2.500	1.005	1.759	2.137	2.163	1.088	2.411	3.048	3.514	1.630	3.125
Thu 2026-07-16	—	—	—	1.734	1.148	1.678	2.305	2.618	1.400	1.571	1.555	1.701	0.927	1.897	2.296	3.076	1.564	2.700	0.856	2.082	1.399	2.132	2.903	3.128	2.150	3.125
Mon 2026-07-13	—	—	—	1.635	1.303	2.068	1.655	1.430	1.032	0.672	0.744	0.736	0.987	1.117	1.153	1.443	0.939	1.202	1.479	1.734	1.095	1.652	2.104	2.474	0.910	—
Thu 2026-07-09	—	—	—	1.001	0.605	0.867	1.156	1.093	0.641	0.295	0.310	0.248	0.483	0.682	0.529	0.688	0.514	0.506	0.446	0.869	0.561	1.268	1.404	1.392	0.678	—
Mon 2026-07-06	—	—	—	0.848	0.493	0.633	0.461	2.498	1.297	1.304	1.529	1.259	0.686	1.538	1.588	1.160	0.867	1.205	1.093	0.929	0.592	1.501	1.604	1.645	0.948	—
Thu 2026-07-02	—	—	—	2.893	2.337	2.883	4.048	4.461	2.459	2.412	3.282	2.982	1.121	3.290	3.561	2.715	2.568	2.814	2.164	3.082	2.302	3.245	4.401	4.509	3.392	—
Mon 2026-06-29	—	—	—	1.823	1.850	2.034	1.242	1.171	0.957	0.670	1.032	0.838	0.762	0.786	0.860	0.825	0.492	0.817	0.856	0.796	0.694	1.781	2.383	1.878	1.543	—
Thu 2026-06-25	—	—	—	0.714	0.467	0.703	0.615	0.499	0.646	0.676	1.292	1.196	1.708	0.572	0.651	1.313	1.084	0.918	0.376	0.737	0.441	0.815	0.847	0.800	1.101	—
Mon 2026-06-22	—	—	—	0.788	0.384	0.881	0.429	0.857	0.571	0.480	0.461	0.446	0.428	0.588	0.728	0.644	0.457	0.739	0.763	0.850	0.403	0.987	0.957	0.802	1.468	—
Thu 2026-06-18	—	—	—	—	—	0.607	0.538	0.596	0.688	0.384	0.426	0.346	0.210	0.288	0.526	0.422	0.499	0.642	0.890	0.601	0.497	0.471	0.470	0.514	1.091	—
Mon 2026-06-15	—	—	—	—	—	0.724	0.339	0.432	0.344	0.395	0.506	0.497	0.450	0.435	0.584	0.606	0.484	0.580	0.714	0.780	0.615	0.502	0.549	0.654	0.792	—
Fri 2026-06-12	—	—	—	—	—	0.491	0.441	0.391	0.346	0.428	0.464	0.401	0.544	0.506	0.727	0.694	0.783	0.547	0.903	0.916	1.059	0.949	0.426	0.408	0.562	—
Thu 2026-06-11	—	—	—	—	—	0.530	0.447	0.297	0.232	0.320	0.259	0.326	0.705	0.417	0.401	0.500	0.350	0.667	0.451	0.548	0.413	0.511	0.426	0.408	0.562	—
Mon 2026-06-08	—	—	—	—	—	0.284	0.550	0.492	0.417	0.557	0.427	0.463	0.310	0.645	0.356	0.524	0.310	0.813	0.469	0.652	0.308	0.699	0.568	0.380	0.433	—
Thu 2026-06-04	—	—	—	—	—	0.731	0.782	0.656	0.879	0.683	0.723	1.022	1.184	0.852	0.773	1.176	0.385	1.078	0.395	1.089	0.713	1.595	1.940	1.837	0.688	—
Mon 2026-06-01	—	0.734	0.717	1.008	0.854	0.818	0.910	0.893	1.099	0.437	0.176	0.971	1.010	1.309	1.454	1.275	1.296	1.039	1.169	1.505	1.584	1.713	2.080	1.191	0.851	—
Thu 2026-05-28	—	0.241	0.298	0.376	0.306	0.324	0.389	0.368	0.310	0.404	0.510	0.471	0.496	0.551	0.452	0.528	0.526	0.133	0.056	0.712	0.639	0.772	0.995	0.761	0.698	—
Mon 2026-05-25	—	0.214	0.396	1.136	0.427	0.380	0.267	0.379	0.463	0.509	0.668	0.731	0.719	0.761	0.797	0.713	0.771	0.858	0.682	0.663	0.695	0.772	1.038	0.855	0.988	—
Thu 2026-05-21	—	0.310	0.391	0.384	0.454	0.500	0.467	0.538	0.547	0.614	0.700	0.785	0.677	0.794	0.894	0.785	0.792	0.904	0.929	0.748	0.870	0.905	1.055	1.155	1.291	—
Mon 2026-05-18	—	0.428	0.433	0.404	0.455	0.491	0.523	0.626	0.570	0.640	0.636	0.680	0.607	0.878	0.974	0.914	0.920	1.102	1.281	1.090	1.067	1.341	1.483	1.582	1.559	—
Thu 2026-05-14	—	0.711	0.462	0.491	0.591	0.460	0.492	0.503	0.669	0.426	0.590	0.481	0.639	0.631	0.621	0.724	0.894	—	—	—	0.630	—	—	—	—	—
Mon 2026-05-11	—	0.201	0.187	0.257	0.662	0.311	0.365	0.386	0.732	—	—	2.252	0.940	—	—	—	1.110	—	—	—	0.623	—	—	—	—	—
Thu 2026-05-07	1.771	—	—	0.109	0.800	—	—	0.289	1.090	—	—	—	1.104	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tue 2026-05-05	1.771	—	—	1.616	0.735	—	—	—	0.851	—	—	—	1.047	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Phase 2b · `v2026-08-02_135147` Δ +0.001 vs prev train

Lean blender, 13 features. Trained 2026-08-02. Metric: Test MAE (°C).

Lead	Blend	Best single	Δ vs best
+24h	0.657	temp_aifs (0.665)	-1.2%
+48h	0.741	temp_aifs (0.709)	+4.6%
+72h	0.816	temp_aifs (0.794)	+2.7%
+96h	0.979	temp_aifs (0.924)	+6.0%
+120h	1.175	temp_aifs (1.066)	+10.2%

Verify history (29 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling MAE (°C). Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC)	Version	N	+24h	+48h	+72h	+96h	+120h
Mon 2026-08-03	`v2026-07-19_135314` `v2026-07-26_135822`	624	0.854 temp_aifs: 0.404	0.820 temp_aifs: 0.719	1.114 temp_aifs: 0.882	1.231 temp_aifs: 0.902	1.571 temp_aifs: 0.818
Thu 2026-07-30	`v2026-07-12_135640` `v2026-07-19_135314`	624	1.073 temp_aifs: 0.703	1.019 temp_aifs: 0.800	1.423 temp_aifs: 1.229	1.751 temp_gfs: 1.408	1.577 temp_aifs: 0.926
Mon 2026-07-27	`v2026-07-12_135640` `v2026-07-19_135314`	624	1.296 temp_aifs: 0.992	0.879 temp_aifs: 0.841	1.083 temp_aifs: 0.812	1.240 temp_aifs: 0.788	1.332 temp_aifs: 0.838
Thu 2026-07-23	`v2026-07-05_135325` `v2026-07-12_135640`	624	1.042 temp_ecmwf: 0.745	0.763 temp_ecmwf: 0.890	0.910 temp_aifs: 0.782	1.320 temp_aifs: 0.885	1.969 temp_aifs: 1.419
Mon 2026-07-20	`v2026-07-05_135325` `v2026-07-12_135640`	624	1.285 temp_ecmwf: 0.631	1.561 temp_aifs: 1.089	2.021 temp_aifs: 1.217	1.977 temp_ecmwf: 1.396	2.343 temp_icon: 1.193
Thu 2026-07-16	`v2026-06-28_140834` `v2026-07-05_135325`	648	1.671 temp_aifs: 0.926	1.715 temp_aifs: 1.003	2.415 temp_aifs: 0.983	2.723 temp_aifs: 1.058	2.312 temp_aifs: 1.265
Mon 2026-07-13	`v2026-06-28_140834` `v2026-07-05_135325`	648	1.787 temp_aifs: 0.694	0.854 temp_ecmwf: 0.727	1.186 temp_aifs: 0.987	1.297 temp_aifs: 1.181	1.814 temp_aifs: 1.265
Thu 2026-07-09	`v2026-06-21_135711` `v2026-06-28_140834`	648	0.614 temp_ecmwf: 0.457	0.410 temp_ecmwf: 0.486	0.628 temp_ecmwf: 0.530	0.593 temp_ecmwf: 0.279	1.045 temp_aifs: 0.819
Mon 2026-07-06	`v2026-06-21_135711` `v2026-06-28_140834`	648	0.398 temp_ecmwf: 0.242	1.302 temp_aifs: 0.952	1.333 temp_ecmwf: 0.847	1.101 temp_ecmwf: 0.831	1.285 temp_aifs: 0.893
Thu 2026-07-02	`v2026-06-14_134518` `v2026-06-21_135711`	672	2.348 temp_aifs: 1.040	2.512 temp_aifs: 1.132	3.011 temp_icon: 1.335	2.603 temp_icon: 0.669	2.787 temp_gfs: 1.701
Mon 2026-06-29	`v2026-06-14_134518` `v2026-06-21_135711`	672	1.187 temp_gfs: 0.873	0.756 temp_ecmwf: 0.776	0.765 temp_ecmwf: 0.803	0.889 temp_ecmwf: 0.934	1.333 temp_aifs: 1.222
Thu 2026-06-25	`v2026-06-07_131530` `v2026-06-14_134518`	720	0.564 temp_ecmwf: 0.679	0.821 temp_ecmwf: 0.683	0.655 temp_ecmwf: 0.742	0.966 temp_ecmwf: 0.792	0.906 temp_ecmwf: 1.150
Mon 2026-06-22	`v2026-06-07_131530` `v2026-06-14_134518`	720	0.543 temp_aifs: 0.471	0.599 temp_aifs: 0.673	0.663 temp_aifs: 0.691	0.783 temp_ecmwf: 0.950	1.091 temp_ecmwf: 1.156
Thu 2026-06-18	`v2026-06-05_091025` `v2026-06-07_131530`	384	0.564 temp_icon: 0.524	0.443 temp_aifs: 0.468	0.466 temp_mf: 0.578	0.696 temp_aifs: 0.590	0.516 temp_aifs: 0.415
Mon 2026-06-15	`v2026-06-01_214702` `v2026-06-05_091025` `v2026-06-07_131530`	336	0.694 temp_aifs: 0.558	0.442 temp_aifs: 0.472	0.545 temp_aifs: 0.547	0.592 temp_ecmwf: 0.817	0.540 temp_aifs: 0.767
Fri 2026-06-12	`v2026-06-01_214702` `v2026-06-05_091025`	336	0.354 temp_aifs: 0.522	0.384 temp_aifs: 0.502	0.527 temp_aifs: 0.725	0.640 temp_mf: 0.764	0.835 temp_gfs: 0.871
Thu 2026-06-11	`v2026-05-26_104311` `v2026-06-01_214702`	528	0.458 temp_aifs: 0.354	0.295 temp_aifs: 0.416	0.565 temp_aifs: 0.238	0.617 temp_aifs: 0.724	0.463 temp_aifs: 0.745
Mon 2026-06-08	`v2026-05-26_104311` `v2026-05-31_201040`	528	0.285 temp_aifs: 0.338	0.636 temp_ecmwf: 0.753	0.699 temp_aifs: 0.746	0.776 temp_aifs: 0.718	0.670 temp_aifs: 0.711
Thu 2026-06-04	`v2026-05-17_173452` `v2026-05-24_130255` `v2026-05-26_104311`	744	1.041 temp_aifs: 0.927	0.668 temp_gfs: 0.994	1.139 temp_aifs: 1.137	0.869 temp_ecmwf: 1.252	1.829 temp_aifs: 1.749
Mon 2026-06-01	`v2026-05-17_173452` `v2026-05-24_130255`	744	1.309 temp_ecmwf: 1.164	1.477 temp_ecmwf: 1.035	1.351 temp_ecmwf: 1.401	1.655 temp_gfs: 1.812	1.851 temp_aifs: 1.876
Thu 2026-05-28	`v2026-04-28_232613` `v2026-05-17_173452`	1600	0.424 temp_aifs: 0.429	0.418 temp_aifs: 0.477	0.491 temp_icon: 0.413	0.682 temp_icon: 0.575	0.672 temp_ecmwf: 0.767
Mon 2026-05-25	`v2026-04-28_232613` `v2026-05-17_173452`	2012	0.452 temp_icon: 0.413	0.489 temp_icon: 0.660	0.725 temp_ecmwf: 0.767	0.783 temp_ecmwf: 0.891	0.731 temp_ecmwf: 0.795
Thu 2026-05-21	`v2026-04-28_232613`	2012	0.511 temp_icon: 0.566	0.609 temp_ecmwf: 0.775	0.823 temp_aifs: 0.899	0.857 temp_aifs: 0.945	0.976 temp_ecmwf: 1.069
Mon 2026-05-18	`v2026-04-28_232613`	1694	0.516 temp_aifs: 0.586	0.688 temp_ecmwf: 0.772	0.790 temp_aifs: 0.782	1.078 temp_aifs: 1.098	1.360 temp_aifs: 1.147
Thu 2026-05-14	`v2026-04-28_232613`	388	0.561 temp_aifs: 0.598	0.637 temp_ecmwf: 0.689	0.619 temp_aifs: 0.703	0.897 temp_aifs: 0.764	0.495 temp_ecmwf: 0.778
Mon 2026-05-11	`v2026-04-28_232613`	173	0.576 temp_aifs: 0.558	0.813 temp_aifs: 0.798	0.906 temp_ecmwf: 0.805	1.013 temp_aifs: 0.814	0.527 temp_ecmwf: 0.944
Thu 2026-05-07	`v2026-04-27_204454` `v2026-04-28_232613`	9	1.202 temp_aifs: 0.556	1.076 temp_gem: 0.629	0.606 temp_gem: 0.700	—	—
Tue 2026-05-05	`v2026-04-21_201231_phase2redo` `v2026-04-27_174346` `v2026-04-27_204454`	13	0.182 temp_icon: 0.000	1.580 temp_icon: 0.000	0.962 temp_gem: 1.054	—	—
Sun 2026-05-03	`v2026-04-21_201231_phase2redo`	14	0.959 temp_mf: 0.743	0.943 temp_ecmwf: 1.122	0.888 temp_gem: 0.375	—	—

By actual NWP forecast lead (6h buckets)

Same data grouped by ValidTime − freshest contributing NWP cycle (6h buckets) instead of trained-lead label. Reveals MAE structure within a trained bucket once predict spread to hourly outputs (2026-05-04+). Buckets start at the trained lead — earlier figures measured from the cron-fire time, which made offset-day models look like sub-lead forecasts.

Run (UTC)	-12--7h	-6--1h	0-5h	6-11h	12-17h	18-23h	24-29h	30-35h	36-41h	42-47h	48-53h	54-59h	60-65h	66-71h	72-77h	78-83h	84-89h	90-95h	96-101h	102-107h	108-113h	114-119h	120-125h	126-131h	132-137h	138-143h	144-149h
Mon 2026-08-03	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.800	1.448	1.077	0.660	0.874	0.754	0.684	0.461	1.102	1.196	1.235	0.689	1.178	1.388	1.415	1.105	1.476	1.719	2.073	1.599	—
Thu 2026-07-30	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.121	1.079	0.987	0.276	1.078	0.946	0.959	0.222	1.413	1.555	1.748	0.205	1.814	1.051	1.417	0.719	1.554	1.821	1.714	0.646	—
Mon 2026-07-27	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.364	0.544	1.091	0.755	0.837	0.958	1.063	0.859	1.078	1.202	1.099	0.631	1.228	1.392	1.296	0.681	1.358	1.349	1.392	0.576	—
Thu 2026-07-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.081	0.925	0.982	0.902	0.683	0.883	1.095	1.133	0.904	1.107	0.863	0.189	1.322	1.303	1.875	1.000	1.850	2.265	2.547	1.479	2.715
Mon 2026-07-20	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.337	0.715	2.155	1.041	1.555	1.633	1.702	1.023	1.920	2.452	2.524	0.837	1.896	2.304	2.412	1.052	2.218	2.712	3.074	1.418	2.715
Thu 2026-07-16	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.619	1.830	2.092	0.984	1.779	1.494	1.787	1.111	2.392	2.552	2.989	0.904	2.901	0.755	2.019	1.243	2.086	2.791	3.050	1.981	2.715
Mon 2026-07-13	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.834	1.267	0.965	0.633	0.802	0.894	0.963	1.134	1.171	1.189	1.488	0.792	1.231	1.431	1.722	0.932	1.716	2.119	2.491	0.797	—
Thu 2026-07-09	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.564	0.769	0.789	0.508	0.389	0.436	0.528	0.439	0.631	0.593	0.713	0.494	0.602	0.495	0.788	0.576	1.037	1.110	1.110	0.756	—
Mon 2026-07-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.393	0.447	1.819	0.731	1.317	1.416	1.259	0.702	1.434	1.350	0.931	0.572	1.166	1.050	0.856	0.645	1.296	1.283	1.334	0.929	—
Thu 2026-07-02	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.080	3.146	3.497	1.247	2.400	3.081	2.949	1.069	3.079	3.220	2.194	1.797	2.741	1.412	2.882	2.029	2.525	3.487	3.609	2.502	—
Mon 2026-06-29	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.252	0.634	0.740	0.469	0.691	0.899	0.940	0.869	0.752	0.796	0.802	0.791	0.908	0.923	0.808	0.595	1.273	1.691	1.416	0.821	—
Thu 2026-06-25	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.525	0.623	0.710	0.739	0.699	1.107	1.310	1.055	0.538	0.891	1.146	1.552	0.997	0.497	0.927	0.570	0.874	0.937	0.933	1.253	—
Mon 2026-06-22	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.546	0.493	0.656	0.589	0.595	0.589	0.650	0.593	0.629	0.754	0.697	0.741	0.735	0.828	1.107	0.510	1.099	1.054	0.948	1.563	—
Thu 2026-06-18	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.585	0.481	0.552	0.579	0.464	0.453	0.335	0.225	0.442	0.601	0.451	0.495	0.678	0.890	0.397	0.549	0.437	0.571	0.646	2.227	—
Mon 2026-06-15	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.715	0.467	0.532	0.438	0.388	0.648	0.524	0.306	0.526	0.768	0.272	0.477	0.532	0.759	0.779	0.680	0.552	0.501	0.456	0.634	—
Fri 2026-06-12	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.332	0.470	0.315	0.272	0.383	0.386	0.338	0.499	0.496	0.618	0.588	0.709	0.525	1.086	0.985	1.265	0.835	0.425	0.352	0.393	—
Thu 2026-06-11	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.500	0.386	0.296	0.193	0.299	0.263	0.233	0.479	0.565	0.405	0.521	0.222	0.688	0.416	0.494	0.339	0.486	0.425	0.352	0.393	—
Mon 2026-06-08	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.285	0.569	0.496	0.371	0.691	0.483	0.585	0.263	0.774	0.443	0.691	0.266	0.868	0.480	0.641	0.326	0.687	0.721	0.452	0.556	—
Thu 2026-06-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.112	0.977	0.590	0.817	0.656	0.576	1.064	1.220	1.204	0.838	1.327	0.411	0.917	0.347	1.683	0.885	1.740	2.270	2.125	0.949	—
Mon 2026-06-01	—	—	2.162	1.591	1.446	1.244	1.222	1.336	1.278	1.434	0.770	0.965	1.267	1.290	1.536	1.574	1.544	1.730	1.335	1.561	1.694	1.785	2.089	2.389	1.455	1.055	—
Thu 2026-05-28	—	—	0.386	0.408	0.417	0.359	0.425	0.410	0.465	0.421	0.433	0.448	0.457	0.541	0.711	0.541	0.604	0.548	0.560	0.261	0.629	0.591	0.778	0.803	0.584	0.713	—
Mon 2026-05-25	—	—	0.266	0.332	1.050	0.204	0.016	0.226	0.410	0.509	0.516	0.703	0.751	0.703	0.736	0.716	0.689	0.754	0.852	0.649	0.654	0.668	0.829	0.876	0.688	0.804	—
Thu 2026-05-21	—	—	0.476	0.575	0.499	0.578	0.533	0.513	0.608	0.607	0.657	0.788	0.875	0.718	0.765	0.867	0.774	0.744	0.946	0.933	0.832	0.886	0.933	1.031	1.158	1.134	—
Mon 2026-05-18	—	—	0.646	0.642	0.535	0.530	0.487	0.575	0.709	0.621	0.679	0.725	0.772	0.675	0.876	0.978	0.891	0.943	1.223	1.362	1.213	1.076	1.397	1.680	1.738	1.618	—
Thu 2026-05-14	—	—	0.851	0.634	0.543	0.656	0.485	0.523	0.549	0.691	0.502	0.597	0.525	0.628	0.536	0.657	0.703	0.883	—	—	—	0.495	—	—	—	—	—
Mon 2026-05-11	—	—	0.660	0.451	0.451	0.756	0.376	0.427	0.473	0.766	—	0.606	2.354	0.906	—	—	—	1.013	—	—	—	0.527	—	—	—	—	—
Thu 2026-05-07	0.977	0.977	—	0.182	0.392	1.202	—	0.057	0.585	1.577	—	0.606	—	1.950	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tue 2026-05-05	0.977	0.977	—	0.182	1.580	0.228	—	—	—	0.993	—	—	—	0.962	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Phase 2d · `v2026-08-02_135436_phase2d` Δ +0.010 vs prev train

Exact-runtime blender. Trains on raw S3 cycles (GFS + AIFS required, IFS oper + MO Global + UKV optional) instead of Open-Meteo offset_day, with rigorous (RunTime, ValidTime, Lead) provenance per row. UKV pulled per-V-hour from 03Z + 15Z cycles. Trained 2026-08-02. Metric: Test MAE (°C).

Lead	Blend	Best single	Δ vs best
+12h	0.687	temp_ifs (1.297)	-47.1%
+24h	0.688	temp_ifs (1.310)	-47.5%
+48h	0.756	temp_gfs (1.573)	-51.9%
+72h	0.770	temp_moglobal (1.268)	-39.3%
+96h	0.924	temp_ifs (1.188)	-22.2%
+120h	1.122	temp_ifs (1.350)	-16.9%

Verify history (25 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling MAE (°C). Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC)	Version	N	+12h	+24h	+48h	+72h	+96h	+120h
Mon 2026-08-03	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-26_140108_phase2d`	163	0.479 —	0.301 —	0.366 —	1.171 —	1.230 —	1.381 —
Thu 2026-07-30	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-19_135526_phase2d`	163	0.530 —	0.509 —	0.642 —	1.478 —	1.567 —	1.750 —
Mon 2026-07-27	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-19_135526_phase2d`	163	0.451 —	0.432 —	0.277 —	1.600 —	1.833 —	1.899 —
Thu 2026-07-23	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-12_135827_phase2d`	163	1.004 —	0.974 —	0.957 —	2.441 —	2.602 —	2.686 —
Mon 2026-07-20	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-12_135827_phase2d`	167	1.257 —	1.130 —	0.690 —	2.842 —	2.981 —	3.133 —
Thu 2026-07-16	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-05_135520_phase2d`	167	1.706 —	1.700 —	2.058 —	1.951 —	2.102 —	2.297 —
Mon 2026-07-13	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-07-05_135520_phase2d`	165	1.281 —	1.618 —	2.167 —	1.093 —	1.083 —	1.239 —
Thu 2026-07-09	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-28_141013_phase2d`	167	0.371 —	0.314 —	0.382 —	1.001 —	1.060 —	1.201 —
Mon 2026-07-06	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-28_141013_phase2d`	177	0.427 —	0.428 —	0.515 —	2.046 —	2.180 —	2.568 —
Thu 2026-07-02	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-21_135847_phase2d`	173	1.917 —	2.005 —	2.771 —	2.183 —	2.366 —	2.537 —
Mon 2026-06-29	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-21_135847_phase2d`	171	0.853 —	0.794 —	1.152 —	1.048 —	1.093 —	0.988 —
Thu 2026-06-25	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-14_134717_phase2d`	179	0.494 —	0.551 —	0.527 —	0.615 —	0.981 —	0.915 —
Mon 2026-06-22	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-14_134717_phase2d`	185	0.445 —	0.654 —	0.498 —	0.452 —	0.829 —	0.805 —
Thu 2026-06-18	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-07_131721_phase2d`	186	0.394 —	0.383 —	0.425 —	0.524 —	0.600 —	0.584 —
Mon 2026-06-15	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-06-07_131721_phase2d`	194	0.368 —	0.334 —	0.333 —	0.542 —	0.601 —	0.646 —
Fri 2026-06-12	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-31_201225_phase2d` `v2026-06-07_131721_phase2d`	235	0.219 —	0.330 —	0.331 —	0.531 —	0.621 —	0.795 —
Thu 2026-06-11	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-31_201225_phase2d`	212	0.346 —	0.322 —	0.306 —	0.550 —	0.588 —	0.836 —
Mon 2026-06-08	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-31_201225_phase2d`	197	0.459 —	0.383 —	0.297 —	1.033 —	1.108 —	1.379 —
Thu 2026-06-04	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-26_104427_phase2d`	128	1.292 —	1.058 —	0.891 —	1.666 —	1.802 —	1.999 —
Mon 2026-06-01	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-24_130417_phase2d` `v2026-05-26_104427_phase2d`	83	1.990 —	1.898 —	2.192 —	1.966 —	1.783 —	1.743 —
Thu 2026-05-28	`v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-17_173814_phase2d`	24	0.366 —	0.582 —	0.453 —	0.431 —	0.288 —	0.299 —
Mon 2026-05-25	`v2026-05-08_060055_phase2d` `v2026-05-09_083929_phase2d` `v2026-05-09_084413_phase2d` `v2026-05-17_173814_phase2d`	110	0.650 —	0.632 —	0.482 —	0.493 —	0.655 —	0.671 —
Thu 2026-05-21	`v2026-05-08_055817_phase2d` `v2026-05-08_060055_phase2d`	91	0.334 —	0.464 —	0.432 —	0.689 —	0.866 —	0.675 —
Mon 2026-05-18	`v2026-05-08_055817_phase2d` `v2026-05-08_060055_phase2d`	45	0.227 —	0.205 —	0.460 —	0.564 —	—	—
Thu 2026-05-14	`v2026-05-05_182234_phase2d`	12	0.376 —	0.697 —	—	—	—	—

By actual NWP forecast lead (6h buckets)

Same data grouped by ValidTime − freshest contributing NWP cycle (6h buckets) instead of trained-lead label. Reveals MAE structure within a trained bucket once predict spread to hourly outputs (2026-05-04+). Buckets start at the trained lead — earlier figures measured from the cron-fire time, which made offset-day models look like sub-lead forecasts.

Run (UTC)	-48--43h	-42--37h	-36--31h	-30--25h	-24--19h	-18--13h	-12--7h	-6--1h	0-5h	6-11h	12-17h	18-23h	24-29h	30-35h	36-41h	42-47h	48-53h	54-59h	60-65h	66-71h	72-77h	78-83h	84-89h	90-95h	96-101h	102-107h	108-113h
Mon 2026-06-01	1.130	1.052	1.869	2.304	1.782	1.606	2.042	3.314	1.999	1.656	1.984	2.366	2.252	2.379	2.647	2.616	1.960	1.522	1.992	2.752	1.915	1.375	1.839	3.836	1.708	1.161	1.862
Thu 2026-05-28	0.186	0.126	0.234	0.195	0.259	0.068	—	0.435	0.546	0.677	0.531	—	0.370	0.414	0.534	—	0.328	0.418	0.490	—	0.382	0.269	0.261	—	0.284	0.220	0.368
Mon 2026-05-25	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.810	0.606	0.790	0.790	—	0.434	0.553	0.445	—	0.142	0.260	0.765	—	0.640	0.757	0.567	—	0.766	0.646	0.660
Thu 2026-05-21	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.810	0.353	0.438	0.479	—	0.336	0.502	0.400	—	0.632	0.812	0.598	—	1.237	0.989	0.661	—	0.787	0.632	0.697
Mon 2026-05-18	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.217	0.122	0.301	—	0.453	0.517	0.398	—	0.827	0.508	0.514	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Thu 2026-05-14	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.555	0.600	0.607	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Temperature — Bonehill Rocks

Verify history (29 runs)

By actual NWP forecast lead (6h buckets)

Verify history (29 runs)

By actual NWP forecast lead (6h buckets)

Verify history (25 runs)

By actual NWP forecast lead (6h buckets)