WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Element models

Cloud cover, relative humidity and shortwave radiation blenders. MAE in each element's own units (% / % / W/m²), lower better. Δ vs best single NWP — negative = blend wins.

Total cloud cover — Bonehill Rocks

Phase cloud_cover · v2026-06-14_150835

Total-cloud-cover LightGBM blender, ERA5 CloudCover truth. Per-NWP cloud + NWP-mean CAPE. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test MAE (%).

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 12.466 ecmwf_aifs025_single (12.978) -3.9%
+48h 14.018 ecmwf_aifs025_single (14.544) -3.6%
+72h 16.172 ecmwf_aifs025_single (16.604) -2.6%
Verify history (no runs yet)

No verify rows yet for phase cloud_cover. Next cycle: Mon/Thu 09:30 UTC, then 5d ERA5 latency.

Relative humidity — Bonehill Rocks

Phase humidity · v2026-06-18_203448

2 m relative-humidity LightGBM blender, ERA5 RelativeHumidity2m truth. Trained 2026-06-18. Metric: Test MAE (%).

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 3.136 ecmwf_aifs025_single (3.260) -3.8%
+48h 3.514 ecmwf_aifs025_single (3.641) -3.5%
+72h 4.275 ecmwf_aifs025_single (4.249) +0.6%
Verify history (no runs yet)

No verify rows yet for phase humidity. Next cycle: Mon/Thu 09:30 UTC, then 5d ERA5 latency.

Shortwave radiation — Bonehill Rocks

Phase shortwave_radiation · v2026-06-14_150757

Surface shortwave-radiation LightGBM blender, ERA5 ShortwaveRadiation truth. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test MAE (W/m²).

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 18.654 ecmwf_aifs025_single (21.466) -13.1%
+48h 21.473 ecmwf_aifs025_single (23.873) -10.1%
+72h 25.605 ecmwf_aifs025_single (26.776) -4.4%
Verify history (no runs yet)

No verify rows yet for phase shortwave_radiation. Next cycle: Mon/Thu 09:30 UTC, then 5d ERA5 latency.