WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Element models

Cloud cover, relative humidity and shortwave radiation blenders. MAE in each element's own units (% / % / W/m²), lower better. Δ vs best single NWP — negative = blend wins.

Total cloud cover — Bonehill Rocks

Phase cloud_cover · v2026-08-02_150547

Total-cloud-cover LightGBM blender, ERA5 CloudCover truth. Per-NWP cloud + NWP-mean CAPE. Trained 2026-08-02. Metric: Test MAE (%).

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 14.439 ecmwf_aifs025_single (14.986) -3.7%
+48h 15.714 ecmwf_aifs025_single (16.159) -2.8%
+72h 18.175 ecmwf_aifs025_single (18.507) -1.8%
Verify history (no runs yet)

No verify rows yet for phase cloud_cover. Next cycle: Mon/Thu 09:30 UTC, then 5d ERA5 latency.

Relative humidity — Bonehill Rocks

Phase humidity · v2026-08-02_150417

2 m relative-humidity LightGBM blender, ERA5 RelativeHumidity2m truth. Trained 2026-08-02. Metric: Test MAE (%).

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 3.493 ecmwf_aifs025_single (3.620) -3.5%
+48h 3.862 ecmwf_aifs025_single (3.958) -2.4%
+72h 4.377 ecmwf_aifs025_single (4.530) -3.4%
Verify history (no runs yet)

No verify rows yet for phase humidity. Next cycle: Mon/Thu 09:30 UTC, then 5d ERA5 latency.

Shortwave radiation — Bonehill Rocks

Phase shortwave_radiation · v2026-08-02_150502

Surface shortwave-radiation LightGBM blender, ERA5 ShortwaveRadiation truth. Trained 2026-08-02. Metric: Test MAE (W/m²).

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 22.303 ecmwf_ifs025 (24.919) -10.5%
+48h 25.458 ecmwf_ifs025 (27.972) -9.0%
+72h 28.982 ecmwf_aifs025_single (30.712) -5.6%
Verify history (no runs yet)

No verify rows yet for phase shortwave_radiation. Next cycle: Mon/Thu 09:30 UTC, then 5d ERA5 latency.