WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Element models

Cloud cover, relative humidity and shortwave radiation blenders. MAE in each element's own units (% / % / W/m²), lower better. Δ vs best single NWP — negative = blend wins.

Total cloud cover — Bonehill Rocks

Phase cloud_cover · v2026-10-04_151422

Total-cloud-cover LightGBM blender, ERA5 CloudCover truth. Per-NWP cloud + NWP-mean CAPE. Trained 2026-10-04. Metric: Test MAE (%).

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 15.648 ecmwf_aifs025_single (15.653) 0.0%
+48h 16.933 ecmwf_aifs025_single (16.832) +0.6%
+72h 19.716 ecmwf_aifs025_single (19.344) +1.9%
Verify history (no runs yet)

No verify rows yet for phase cloud_cover. Next cycle: Mon/Thu 09:30 UTC, then 5d ERA5 latency.

Relative humidity — Bonehill Rocks

Phase humidity · v2026-10-04_151243

2 m relative-humidity LightGBM blender, ERA5 RelativeHumidity2m truth. Trained 2026-10-04. Metric: Test MAE (%).

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 3.463 ecmwf_aifs025_single (3.817) -9.3%
+48h 3.922 ecmwf_aifs025_single (4.188) -6.4%
+72h 4.331 ecmwf_aifs025_single (4.812) -10.0%
Verify history (no runs yet)

No verify rows yet for phase humidity. Next cycle: Mon/Thu 09:30 UTC, then 5d ERA5 latency.

Shortwave radiation — Bonehill Rocks

Phase shortwave_radiation · v2026-10-04_151332

Surface shortwave-radiation LightGBM blender, ERA5 ShortwaveRadiation truth. Trained 2026-10-04. Metric: Test MAE (W/m²).

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 22.530 ecmwf_ifs025 (24.673) -8.7%
+48h 26.048 ecmwf_ifs025 (28.090) -7.3%
+72h 29.587 ecmwf_aifs025_single (31.310) -5.5%
Verify history (no runs yet)

No verify rows yet for phase shortwave_radiation. Next cycle: Mon/Thu 09:30 UTC, then 5d ERA5 latency.