WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Rain +24h
NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.
NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Bellever Dartmoor
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 64% at 22Z | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17% | 1% at 13Z | 4 | 0 | 20 | |
| 2% | 1% at 13Z | 0 | 0 | 24 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=52%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 71% | confident wet | |
| 68% | 57% | confident wet | |
| 52% | 43% | confident wet | |
| 62% | 43% | confident wet | |
| 31% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 43% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 16% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Bovey Tracey
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14% | 13% at 23Z | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4% | 1% at 13Z | 0 | 0 | 24 | |
| 1% | 1% at 13Z | 0 | 0 | 24 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=33%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 16% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 12% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 13% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66% | 66% at 22Z | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18% | 1% at 13Z | 3 | 2 | 19 | |
| 2% | 1% at 13Z | 0 | 0 | 24 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=58%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 71% | confident wet | |
| 71% | 57% | confident wet | |
| 54% | 43% | ambiguous | |
| 64% | 43% | confident wet | |
| 36% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 46% | 29% | ambiguous | |
| 20% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 10% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Princetown
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62% | 62% at 22Z | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17% | 1% at 13Z | 3 | 1 | 20 | |
| 2% | 1% at 13Z | 0 | 0 | 24 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=52%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 71% | confident wet | |
| 67% | 57% | confident wet | |
| 51% | 43% | ambiguous | |
| 61% | 43% | confident wet | |
| 34% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 43% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 19% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry |