WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Rain +24h
NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.
NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Bellever Dartmoor
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | 1% at 11Z | 0 | 0 | 20 | |
| 25% | 1% at 14Z | 3 | 5 | 16 | |
| 8% | 1% at 15Z | 0 | 1 | 23 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=57%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37% | 86% | confident dry | |
| 57% | 86% | confident wet | |
| 65% | 100% | confident wet | |
| 65% | 86% | confident wet | |
| 46% | 100% | ambiguous | |
| 45% | 100% | ambiguous | |
| 55% | 71% | ambiguous | |
| 50% | 86% | ambiguous | |
| 37% | 86% | confident dry | |
| 36% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 45% | 86% | ambiguous | |
| 29% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 22% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 15% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 10% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 14% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 14% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 16% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 35% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 49% | 43% | ambiguous |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Bovey Tracey
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | 1% at 04Z | 0 | 0 | 20 | |
| 17% | 0% at 14Z | 2 | 0 | 22 | |
| 2% | 0% at 15Z | 0 | 0 | 24 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=45%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32% | 86% | confident dry | |
| 54% | 86% | confident dry | |
| 61% | 100% | confident wet | |
| 61% | 86% | confident wet | |
| 38% | 100% | confident dry | |
| 34% | 100% | confident dry | |
| 33% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 17% | 86% | confident dry | |
| 14% | 86% | confident dry | |
| 16% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 18% | 86% | confident dry | |
| 15% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 0% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 0% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 0% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 43% | confident dry |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | 2% at 04Z | 0 | 0 | 20 | |
| 29% | 3% at 22Z | 2 | 9 | 13 | |
| 10% | 2% at 04Z | 0 | 1 | 23 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=62%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39% | 86% | ambiguous | |
| 61% | 86% | ambiguous | |
| 68% | 100% | confident wet | |
| 69% | 86% | confident wet | |
| 49% | 100% | ambiguous | |
| 48% | 100% | ambiguous | |
| 60% | 71% | ambiguous | |
| 51% | 86% | ambiguous | |
| 38% | 86% | ambiguous | |
| 37% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 46% | 86% | ambiguous | |
| 34% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 38% | 57% | ambiguous | |
| 6% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 22% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 13% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 17% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 16% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 18% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 37% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 52% | 43% | ambiguous |