WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Rain +24h
NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.
NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Bellever Dartmoor
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | 1% at 23Z | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 31% | 7% at 00Z | 2 | 1 | 21 | |
| 8% | 1% at 21Z | 0 | 0 | 24 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=53%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 16% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 14% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 24% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 44% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 45% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 59% | 71% | confident wet | |
| 50% | 71% | ambiguous | |
| 47% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 31% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 33% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 36% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 17% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 16% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 26% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 38% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 40% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 44% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 56% | 57% | confident wet | |
| 24% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 20% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 14% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 28% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 24% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 40% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 11% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 30% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 21% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 27% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 15% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 12% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Bovey Tracey
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | 1% at 23Z | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 13% | 3% at 00Z | 0 | 0 | 24 | |
| 2% | 0% at 21Z | 0 | 0 | 24 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=38%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 10% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 13% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 21% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 21% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 26% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 19% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 22% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 18% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 11% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 17% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 20% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 17% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 35% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 0% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 0% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 0% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 0% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 0% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 2% at 23Z | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 34% | 8% at 00Z | 1 | 7 | 16 | |
| 9% | 1% at 21Z | 0 | 1 | 23 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=58%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 17% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 15% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 26% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 46% | 57% | ambiguous | |
| 51% | 71% | ambiguous | |
| 64% | 71% | confident wet | |
| 54% | 71% | ambiguous | |
| 52% | 71% | ambiguous | |
| 35% | 71% | confident dry | |
| 35% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 40% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 19% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 18% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 28% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 41% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 42% | 57% | ambiguous | |
| 46% | 43% | ambiguous | |
| 58% | 57% | ambiguous | |
| 24% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 21% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 14% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 29% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 25% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 45% | 29% | ambiguous | |
| 13% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 30% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 23% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 30% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 17% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 14% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry |