WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain +48h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
4% 2% at 22Z 0 0 17
16% 1% at 20Z 0 2 19
8% 1% at 12Z 0 0 21
45% 2% at 23Z 5 4 3
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=59%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
16% 57% confident dry
19% 43% confident dry
35% 71% confident dry
24% 57% confident dry
35% 86% confident dry
51% 86% ambiguous
51% 71% ambiguous
31% 57% confident dry
26% 57% confident dry
22% 57% confident dry
17% 57% confident dry
15% 71% confident dry
13% 57% confident dry
6% 29% confident dry
4% 14% confident dry
3% 14% confident dry
2% 14% confident dry
2% 14% confident dry
2% 14% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
4% 0% —
6% 14% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
5% 14% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
6% 29% confident dry
2% 14% confident dry
2% 14% confident dry
11% 43% confident dry
16% 43% confident dry
14% 43% confident dry
25% 43% confident dry
11% 57% confident dry
15% 43% —
20% 29% —
33% 29% —
49% 29% ambiguous
76% 43% confident wet
60% 43% confident wet
69% 43% —
63% 43% —
71% 57% —
73% 43% —
79% 71% —
76% 71% —
67% 71% confident wet
63% 71% confident wet
57% 86% ambiguous
57% 86% ambiguous
63% 71% confident wet
48% 71% ambiguous
54% 71% —
18% 29% —
16% 29% —
16% 29% —
3% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Bovey Tracey

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
3% 1% at 22Z 0 0 17
13% 1% at 20Z 0 0 21
2% 0% at 12Z 0 0 21
10% 0% at 20Z 0 0 12
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=49%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
11% 57% confident dry
14% 43% confident dry
28% 71% confident dry
22% 57% confident dry
33% 86% confident dry
47% 86% confident dry
44% 71% confident dry
27% 57% confident dry
22% 57% confident dry
19% 57% confident dry
13% 57% confident dry
12% 71% confident dry
10% 57% confident dry
4% 29% confident dry
2% 14% confident dry
2% 14% confident dry
2% 14% confident dry
2% 14% confident dry
1% 14% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 14% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 14% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 29% confident dry
1% 14% confident dry
1% 14% confident dry
2% 43% confident dry
3% 43% confident dry
3% 43% confident dry
6% 43% confident dry
5% 57% confident dry
3% 43% —
3% 29% —
4% 29% —
6% 29% confident dry
12% 43% confident dry
7% 43% confident dry
7% 43% —
8% 43% —
11% 57% —
12% 43% —
20% 71% —
15% 71% —
18% 71% confident dry
18% 71% confident dry
12% 86% confident dry
14% 86% confident dry
24% 71% confident dry
17% 71% confident dry
20% 71% —
2% 29% —
2% 29% —
2% 29% —
1% 0% —
0% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
6% 2% at 22Z 0 0 17
18% 3% at 20Z 0 4 17
11% 3% at 12Z 0 0 21
48% 2% at 23Z 3 6 3
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=65%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
20% 57% confident dry
21% 43% confident dry
36% 71% ambiguous
25% 57% confident dry
38% 86% ambiguous
54% 86% ambiguous
54% 71% ambiguous
35% 57% confident dry
30% 57% confident dry
25% 57% confident dry
19% 57% confident dry
15% 71% confident dry
14% 57% confident dry
7% 29% confident dry
6% 14% confident dry
6% 14% confident dry
3% 14% confident dry
4% 14% confident dry
4% 14% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
6% 0% —
8% 14% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
6% 14% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
12% 29% confident dry
5% 14% confident dry
4% 14% confident dry
18% 43% confident dry
23% 43% confident dry
20% 43% confident dry
29% 43% confident dry
14% 57% confident dry
18% 43% —
24% 29% —
37% 29% —
52% 29% ambiguous
78% 43% confident wet
62% 43% ambiguous
69% 43% —
63% 43% —
71% 57% —
74% 43% —
79% 71% —
77% 71% —
68% 71% confident wet
65% 71% confident wet
61% 86% ambiguous
59% 86% ambiguous
64% 71% ambiguous
52% 71% ambiguous
62% 71% —
26% 29% —
22% 29% —
25% 29% —
4% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor