WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Rain +48h
NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.
NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Bellever Dartmoor
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44% | 44% at 23Z | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15% | 1% at 17Z | 2 | 1 | 18 | |
| 1% | 1% at 10Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 3% | 1% at 13Z | 0 | 0 | 21 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=54%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 37% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 59% | 57% | confident wet | |
| 61% | 43% | confident wet | |
| 47% | 29% | ambiguous | |
| 43% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 16% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 15% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 0% | — | |
| 5% | 14% | — | |
| 6% | 14% | — |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Bovey Tracey
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9% | 9% at 23Z | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5% | 1% at 17Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 1% | 1% at 12Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 2% | 1% at 13Z | 0 | 0 | 21 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=38%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 11% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 21% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 14% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 14% | — | |
| 4% | 14% | — |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46% | 45% at 23Z | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16% | 1% at 17Z | 2 | 3 | 16 | |
| 1% | 1% at 10Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 4% | 2% at 13Z | 0 | 0 | 21 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=60%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46% | 43% | ambiguous | |
| 37% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 61% | 57% | confident wet | |
| 62% | 43% | confident wet | |
| 49% | 29% | ambiguous | |
| 44% | 29% | ambiguous | |
| 17% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 16% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 0% | — | |
| 6% | 14% | — | |
| 8% | 14% | — |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Princetown
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43% | 42% at 23Z | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15% | 1% at 17Z | 2 | 1 | 18 | |
| 1% | 1% at 10Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 3% | 2% at 13Z | 0 | 0 | 21 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=53%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 37% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 61% | 57% | confident wet | |
| 63% | 43% | confident wet | |
| 49% | 29% | ambiguous | |
| 43% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 16% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 15% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 43% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 14% | — | |
| 6% | 14% | — |