WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain +48h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour	conf wet h	conf dry h
Mon 03 Aug	2%	2% at 23Z	0	0
Tue 04 Aug	34%	9% at 22Z	4	17
Wed 05 Aug	7%	1% at 20Z	0	21
Thu 06 Aug	1%	0% at 21Z	0	21

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=53%

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet	Conformal (90% set)
08-04 00Z	10%	0%	confident dry
08-04 01Z	22%	29%	confident dry
08-04 02Z	34%	29%	confident dry
08-04 03Z	32%	29%	confident dry
08-04 04Z	44%	57%	confident dry
08-04 05Z	46%	71%	confident dry
08-04 06Z	75%	43%	confident wet
08-04 07Z	73%	57%	confident wet
08-04 08Z	63%	57%	confident wet
08-04 09Z	62%	57%	confident wet
08-04 10Z	34%	43%	confident dry
08-04 11Z	27%	57%	confident dry
08-04 12Z	27%	43%	confident dry
08-04 13Z	23%	57%	confident dry
08-04 14Z	22%	43%	confident dry
08-04 15Z	19%	43%	confident dry
08-04 16Z	30%	43%	confident dry
08-04 17Z	38%	43%	confident dry
08-04 18Z	41%	43%	confident dry
08-04 19Z	25%	14%	confident dry
08-04 20Z	26%	14%	confident dry
08-04 21Z	11%	14%	—
08-04 22Z	9%	0%	—
08-04 23Z	9%	0%	—
08-05 00Z	13%	14%	confident dry
08-05 01Z	16%	14%	confident dry
08-05 02Z	14%	14%	confident dry
08-05 03Z	16%	14%	confident dry
08-05 04Z	12%	14%	confident dry
08-05 05Z	14%	14%	confident dry
08-05 06Z	18%	14%	confident dry
08-05 07Z	13%	14%	confident dry
08-05 08Z	11%	29%	confident dry
08-05 09Z	7%	29%	confident dry
08-05 10Z	5%	29%	confident dry
08-05 11Z	7%	29%	confident dry
08-05 12Z	5%	29%	confident dry
08-05 13Z	2%	0%	confident dry
08-05 14Z	3%	14%	confident dry
08-05 15Z	4%	14%	confident dry
08-05 16Z	2%	14%	confident dry
08-05 17Z	2%	14%	confident dry
08-05 18Z	2%	14%	confident dry
08-05 19Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 20Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 21Z	1%	0%	—
08-05 22Z	1%	0%	—
08-05 23Z	1%	0%	—
08-06 00Z	2%	0%	confident dry
08-06 01Z	2%	14%	confident dry
08-06 02Z	3%	14%	confident dry
08-06 03Z	3%	0%	confident dry
08-06 04Z	3%	0%	confident dry
08-06 05Z	4%	0%	confident dry
08-06 06Z	4%	0%	confident dry
08-06 07Z	2%	0%	confident dry
08-06 08Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 09Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 10Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 11Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 12Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 13Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 14Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 15Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 16Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 17Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 18Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 19Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 20Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 21Z	0%	0%	—
08-06 22Z	1%	0%	—
08-06 23Z	1%	0%	—

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Bovey Tracey

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour	conf dry h
Mon 03 Aug	1%	1% at 23Z	0
Tue 04 Aug	10%	2% at 22Z	21
Wed 05 Aug	2%	0% at 21Z	21
Thu 06 Aug	1%	0% at 21Z	21

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=43%

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet	Conformal (90% set)
08-04 00Z	3%	0%	confident dry
08-04 01Z	5%	29%	confident dry
08-04 02Z	8%	29%	confident dry
08-04 03Z	8%	29%	confident dry
08-04 04Z	11%	57%	confident dry
08-04 05Z	11%	71%	confident dry
08-04 06Z	22%	43%	confident dry
08-04 07Z	26%	57%	confident dry
08-04 08Z	19%	57%	confident dry
08-04 09Z	26%	57%	confident dry
08-04 10Z	12%	43%	confident dry
08-04 11Z	9%	57%	confident dry
08-04 12Z	9%	43%	confident dry
08-04 13Z	7%	57%	confident dry
08-04 14Z	6%	43%	confident dry
08-04 15Z	6%	43%	confident dry
08-04 16Z	8%	43%	confident dry
08-04 17Z	10%	43%	confident dry
08-04 18Z	10%	43%	confident dry
08-04 19Z	5%	14%	confident dry
08-04 20Z	6%	14%	confident dry
08-04 21Z	2%	14%	—
08-04 22Z	2%	0%	—
08-04 23Z	2%	0%	—
08-05 00Z	3%	14%	confident dry
08-05 01Z	3%	14%	confident dry
08-05 02Z	2%	14%	confident dry
08-05 03Z	3%	14%	confident dry
08-05 04Z	2%	14%	confident dry
08-05 05Z	3%	14%	confident dry
08-05 06Z	4%	14%	confident dry
08-05 07Z	3%	14%	confident dry
08-05 08Z	3%	29%	confident dry
08-05 09Z	2%	29%	confident dry
08-05 10Z	1%	29%	confident dry
08-05 11Z	2%	29%	confident dry
08-05 12Z	2%	29%	confident dry
08-05 13Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 14Z	1%	14%	confident dry
08-05 15Z	2%	14%	confident dry
08-05 16Z	1%	14%	confident dry
08-05 17Z	1%	14%	confident dry
08-05 18Z	1%	14%	confident dry
08-05 19Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 20Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 21Z	0%	0%	—
08-05 22Z	0%	0%	—
08-05 23Z	0%	0%	—
08-06 00Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 01Z	1%	14%	confident dry
08-06 02Z	1%	14%	confident dry
08-06 03Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 04Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 05Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 06Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 07Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 08Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 09Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 10Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 11Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 12Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 13Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 14Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 15Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 16Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 17Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 18Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 19Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 20Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 21Z	0%	0%	—
08-06 22Z	0%	0%	—
08-06 23Z	0%	0%	—

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour	conf wet h	amb h	conf dry h
Mon 03 Aug	2%	2% at 23Z	0	0	0
Tue 04 Aug	35%	10% at 23Z	4	3	14
Wed 05 Aug	8%	1% at 21Z	0	0	21
Thu 06 Aug	2%	0% at 20Z	0	0	21

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=58%

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet	Conformal (90% set)
08-04 00Z	13%	0%	confident dry
08-04 01Z	21%	29%	confident dry
08-04 02Z	33%	29%	confident dry
08-04 03Z	31%	29%	confident dry
08-04 04Z	42%	57%	ambiguous
08-04 05Z	45%	71%	ambiguous
08-04 06Z	76%	43%	confident wet
08-04 07Z	75%	57%	confident wet
08-04 08Z	61%	57%	confident wet
08-04 09Z	66%	57%	confident wet
08-04 10Z	37%	43%	confident dry
08-04 11Z	29%	57%	confident dry
08-04 12Z	32%	43%	confident dry
08-04 13Z	27%	57%	confident dry
08-04 14Z	25%	43%	confident dry
08-04 15Z	22%	43%	confident dry
08-04 16Z	33%	43%	confident dry
08-04 17Z	41%	43%	confident dry
08-04 18Z	45%	43%	ambiguous
08-04 19Z	30%	14%	confident dry
08-04 20Z	29%	14%	confident dry
08-04 21Z	12%	14%	—
08-04 22Z	10%	0%	—
08-04 23Z	10%	0%	—
08-05 00Z	14%	14%	confident dry
08-05 01Z	17%	14%	confident dry
08-05 02Z	15%	14%	confident dry
08-05 03Z	17%	14%	confident dry
08-05 04Z	13%	14%	confident dry
08-05 05Z	16%	14%	confident dry
08-05 06Z	21%	14%	confident dry
08-05 07Z	16%	14%	confident dry
08-05 08Z	13%	29%	confident dry
08-05 09Z	8%	29%	confident dry
08-05 10Z	6%	29%	confident dry
08-05 11Z	8%	29%	confident dry
08-05 12Z	6%	29%	confident dry
08-05 13Z	3%	0%	confident dry
08-05 14Z	4%	14%	confident dry
08-05 15Z	5%	14%	confident dry
08-05 16Z	2%	14%	confident dry
08-05 17Z	2%	14%	confident dry
08-05 18Z	2%	14%	confident dry
08-05 19Z	2%	0%	confident dry
08-05 20Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-05 21Z	1%	0%	—
08-05 22Z	1%	0%	—
08-05 23Z	2%	0%	—
08-06 00Z	2%	0%	confident dry
08-06 01Z	2%	14%	confident dry
08-06 02Z	4%	14%	confident dry
08-06 03Z	3%	0%	confident dry
08-06 04Z	3%	0%	confident dry
08-06 05Z	3%	0%	confident dry
08-06 06Z	5%	0%	confident dry
08-06 07Z	2%	0%	confident dry
08-06 08Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 09Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 10Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 11Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 12Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 13Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 14Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 15Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 16Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 17Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 18Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 19Z	1%	0%	confident dry
08-06 20Z	0%	0%	confident dry
08-06 21Z	1%	0%	—
08-06 22Z	1%	0%	—
08-06 23Z	1%	0%	—

Rain +48h

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Bovey Tracey

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor