WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain +120h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
24% 24% at 22Z 0 0 2
20% 5% at 19Z 0 0 21
3% 2% at 15Z 0 0 21
5% 3% at 00Z 0 0 21
5% 3% at 11Z 0 0 21
4% 2% at 13Z 0 0 21
6% 2% at 11Z 0 0 21
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=59%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
47% 50%
57% 50%
52% 50%
28% 50% confident dry
26% 50% confident dry
26% 50% confident dry
23% 50% confident dry
29% 50% confident dry
24% 50% confident dry
22% 50% confident dry
22% 33% confident dry
22% 33% confident dry
17% 50% confident dry
13% 33% confident dry
7% 17% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
12% 50% confident dry
12% 50% confident dry
11% 50% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
7% 17% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
4% 17%
5% 17%
3% 0%
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 0%
5% 17%
6% 17%
3% 17% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
7% 33% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
7% 17% confident dry
12% 17%
10% 17%
13% 17%
6% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0%
5% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0%
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
12% 33% confident dry
17% 33% confident dry
19% 33% confident dry
11% 17% confident dry
13% 17% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Bovey Tracey

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
15% 15% at 22Z 0 0 2
7% 3% at 19Z 0 0 21
2% 2% at 02Z 0 0 21
3% 2% at 00Z 0 0 21
3% 2% at 21Z 0 0 21
2% 1% at 00Z 0 0 21
4% 2% at 11Z 0 0 21
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=54%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
10% 50%
15% 50%
11% 50%
9% 50% confident dry
9% 50% confident dry
8% 50% confident dry
10% 50% confident dry
11% 50% confident dry
11% 50% confident dry
10% 50% confident dry
10% 33% confident dry
11% 33% confident dry
8% 50% confident dry
6% 33% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
6% 50% confident dry
6% 50% confident dry
6% 50% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
2% 17%
2% 17%
2% 0%
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 17% confident dry
2% 17% confident dry
2% 0%
3% 17%
4% 17%
3% 17% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
5% 33% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
4% 17%
5% 17%
4% 17%
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0%
1% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
7% 33% confident dry
9% 33% confident dry
9% 33% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
7% 17% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
24% 24% at 22Z 0 0 2
21% 5% at 19Z 0 0 21
3% 2% at 15Z 0 0 21
5% 3% at 04Z 0 0 21
5% 3% at 11Z 0 0 21
4% 2% at 13Z 0 0 21
6% 2% at 11Z 0 0 21
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=63%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
50% 50%
58% 50%
54% 50%
29% 50% confident dry
27% 50% confident dry
27% 50% confident dry
24% 50% confident dry
29% 50% confident dry
25% 50% confident dry
23% 50% confident dry
23% 33% confident dry
22% 33% confident dry
17% 50% confident dry
13% 33% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
12% 50% confident dry
12% 50% confident dry
11% 50% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
6% 17%
6% 17%
4% 0%
4% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 0%
5% 17%
7% 17%
3% 17% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
8% 33% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
16% 17%
13% 17%
14% 17%
6% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0%
4% 0%
5% 0%
6% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0%
4% 0%
4% 0%
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
13% 33% confident dry
17% 33% confident dry
19% 33% confident dry
11% 17% confident dry
13% 17% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Princetown

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
25% 24% at 22Z 0 0 2
21% 5% at 19Z 0 0 21
3% 2% at 15Z 0 0 21
4% 2% at 00Z 0 0 21
5% 3% at 11Z 0 0 21
4% 2% at 13Z 0 0 21
5% 2% at 11Z 0 0 21
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=60%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
48% 50%
58% 50%
54% 50%
29% 50% confident dry
27% 50% confident dry
27% 50% confident dry
23% 50% confident dry
29% 50% confident dry
25% 50% confident dry
22% 50% confident dry
22% 33% confident dry
21% 33% confident dry
17% 50% confident dry
12% 33% confident dry
7% 17% confident dry
7% 17% confident dry
12% 50% confident dry
12% 50% confident dry
11% 50% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
7% 17% confident dry
7% 17% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
4% 17%
4% 17%
2% 0%
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
2% 0%
4% 17%
5% 17%
3% 17% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
7% 33% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
7% 17% confident dry
13% 17%
11% 17%
11% 17%
6% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0%
4% 0%
5% 0%
6% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
2% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
12% 33% confident dry
17% 33% confident dry
18% 33% confident dry
11% 17% confident dry
12% 17% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor