WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain +120h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
4% 2% at 11Z 0 0 20
3% 1% at 15Z 0 0 21
3% 1% at 02Z 0 0 21
29% 7% at 00Z 0 8 13
6% 2% at 15Z 0 0 21
18% 4% at 00Z 0 0 21
14% 8% at 09Z 0 0 24
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=63%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
11% 33% —
3% 17% —
8% 33% —
4% 33% confident dry
5% 50% confident dry
5% 50% confident dry
7% 67% confident dry
5% 33% confident dry
5% 33% confident dry
4% 33% confident dry
2% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
2% 17% —
1% 0% —
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
2% 17% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
4% 33% confident dry
3% 33% confident dry
5% 33% confident dry
8% 50% confident dry
11% 50% confident dry
7% 50% —
7% 50% —
9% 50% —
9% 50% confident dry
10% 33% confident dry
10% 33% confident dry
31% 50% confident dry
28% 100% confident dry
26% 100% confident dry
24% 100% confident dry
26% 83% confident dry
28% 83% confident dry
37% 67% confident dry
37% 50% ambiguous
41% 50% ambiguous
44% 50% ambiguous
46% 83% ambiguous
49% 83% ambiguous
54% 83% ambiguous
49% 83% ambiguous
36% 83% confident dry
38% 83% ambiguous
30% 50% confident dry
26% 50% confident dry
47% 50% —
12% 17% —
6% 17% —
10% 17% confident dry
9% 0% confident dry
9% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
4% 0% —
13% 33% —
9% 17% —
7% 17% confident dry
9% 0% confident dry
8% 0% confident dry
19% 0% confident dry
18% 17% confident dry
18% 17% confident dry
18% 17% confident dry
16% 17% confident dry
14% 17% confident dry
22% 33% confident dry
17% 17% confident dry
19% 17% confident dry
24% 17% confident dry
22% 17% confident dry
23% 17% confident dry
26% 17% confident dry
30% 33% confident dry
24% 33% confident dry
24% 33% confident dry
26% 33% confident dry
26% 33% confident dry
16% 33% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
12% 17% confident dry
11% 17% confident dry
11% 17% confident dry
11% 17% confident dry
13% 17% confident dry
11% 0% confident dry
9% 0% confident dry
8% 0% confident dry
9% 17% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
9% 17% confident dry
16% 50% confident dry
20% 50% confident dry
19% 50% confident dry
21% 67% confident dry
19% 67% confident dry
20% 67% confident dry
16% 33% confident dry
14% 33% confident dry
14% 33% confident dry
15% 33% confident dry
17% 33% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Bovey Tracey

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
2% 1% at 11Z 0 0 20
2% 1% at 15Z 0 0 21
1% 0% at 02Z 0 0 21
5% 1% at 04Z 0 0 21
2% 0% at 15Z 0 0 21
8% 1% at 00Z 0 0 21
6% 4% at 09Z 0 0 24
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=56%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
9% 33% —
2% 17% —
5% 33% —
3% 33% confident dry
3% 50% confident dry
4% 50% confident dry
4% 67% confident dry
3% 33% confident dry
3% 33% confident dry
2% 33% confident dry
2% 17% confident dry
2% 17% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% —
1% 17% —
0% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 33% confident dry
1% 33% confident dry
1% 33% confident dry
2% 50% confident dry
3% 50% confident dry
2% 50% —
2% 50% —
2% 50% —
1% 50% confident dry
1% 33% confident dry
2% 33% confident dry
6% 50% confident dry
5% 100% confident dry
6% 100% confident dry
5% 100% confident dry
6% 83% confident dry
6% 83% confident dry
6% 67% confident dry
7% 50% confident dry
7% 50% confident dry
7% 50% confident dry
6% 83% confident dry
7% 83% confident dry
7% 83% confident dry
8% 83% confident dry
7% 83% confident dry
8% 83% confident dry
7% 50% confident dry
5% 50% confident dry
15% 50% —
2% 17% —
2% 17% —
4% 17% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
4% 33% —
3% 17% —
2% 17% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
7% 17% confident dry
7% 17% confident dry
7% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
9% 33% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
10% 17% confident dry
13% 17% confident dry
10% 17% confident dry
12% 17% confident dry
18% 17% confident dry
18% 33% confident dry
12% 33% confident dry
11% 33% confident dry
13% 33% confident dry
12% 33% confident dry
8% 33% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
7% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
6% 17% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
5% 17% confident dry
7% 50% confident dry
9% 50% confident dry
7% 50% confident dry
10% 67% confident dry
9% 67% confident dry
8% 67% confident dry
7% 33% confident dry
6% 33% confident dry
6% 33% confident dry
6% 33% confident dry
8% 33% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
4% 2% at 11Z 0 0 20
4% 1% at 15Z 0 0 21
4% 1% at 02Z 0 0 21
30% 10% at 03Z 0 10 11
7% 2% at 15Z 0 0 21
20% 5% at 00Z 0 0 21
14% 8% at 11Z 0 0 24
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=68%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
11% 33% —
3% 17% —
9% 33% —
5% 33% confident dry
5% 50% confident dry
6% 50% confident dry
8% 67% confident dry
6% 33% confident dry
6% 33% confident dry
4% 33% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
4% 17% —
1% 0% —
4% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 17% confident dry
2% 17% confident dry
2% 17% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
5% 33% confident dry
4% 33% confident dry
6% 33% confident dry
11% 50% confident dry
13% 50% confident dry
10% 50% —
11% 50% —
10% 50% —
10% 50% confident dry
11% 33% confident dry
11% 33% confident dry
32% 50% confident dry
29% 100% confident dry
27% 100% confident dry
24% 100% confident dry
26% 83% confident dry
28% 83% confident dry
38% 67% ambiguous
38% 50% ambiguous
42% 50% ambiguous
46% 50% ambiguous
48% 83% ambiguous
50% 83% ambiguous
55% 83% ambiguous
51% 83% ambiguous
36% 83% ambiguous
39% 83% ambiguous
31% 50% confident dry
26% 50% confident dry
53% 50% —
15% 17% —
7% 17% —
10% 17% confident dry
9% 0% confident dry
10% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 17% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
5% 0% —
16% 33% —
10% 17% —
7% 17% confident dry
10% 0% confident dry
9% 0% confident dry
20% 0% confident dry
19% 17% confident dry
19% 17% confident dry
20% 17% confident dry
19% 17% confident dry
16% 17% confident dry
26% 33% confident dry
20% 17% confident dry
22% 17% confident dry
28% 17% confident dry
23% 17% confident dry
23% 17% confident dry
26% 17% confident dry
31% 33% confident dry
24% 33% confident dry
25% 33% confident dry
27% 33% confident dry
26% 33% confident dry
16% 33% confident dry
9% 17% confident dry
12% 17% confident dry
12% 17% confident dry
11% 17% confident dry
11% 17% confident dry
13% 17% confident dry
12% 0% confident dry
10% 0% confident dry
8% 0% confident dry
9% 17% confident dry
8% 17% confident dry
9% 17% confident dry
16% 50% confident dry
20% 50% confident dry
19% 50% confident dry
22% 67% confident dry
20% 67% confident dry
21% 67% confident dry
18% 33% confident dry
15% 33% confident dry
15% 33% confident dry
16% 33% confident dry
18% 33% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor