WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Rain +120h
NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.
NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Bellever Dartmoor
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 25% at 23Z | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 16% | 10% at 00Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 11% | 1% at 17Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 2% | 1% at 20Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 3% | 1% at 00Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 2% | 1% at 20Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 3% | 1% at 00Z | 0 | 0 | 21 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=58%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 33% | — | |
| 15% | 50% | — | |
| 10% | 50% | — | |
| 17% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 24% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 24% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 24% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 21% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 15% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 13% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 18% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 18% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 17% | 67% | confident dry | |
| 18% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 19% | 67% | confident dry | |
| 15% | 67% | confident dry | |
| 20% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 14% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 12% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 13% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 11% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 10% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 15% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 16% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 37% | 33% | — | |
| 33% | 33% | — | |
| 38% | 33% | — | |
| 21% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 21% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 27% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 16% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 10% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 12% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 5% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 33% | — | |
| 3% | 33% | — | |
| 5% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Bovey Tracey
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16% | 16% at 23Z | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 7% | 3% at 21Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 3% | 1% at 17Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 1% | 0% at 20Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 1% | 1% at 00Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 1% | 0% at 20Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 1% | 1% at 17Z | 0 | 0 | 21 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=48%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | 33% | — | |
| 8% | 50% | — | |
| 9% | 50% | — | |
| 9% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 14% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 13% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 67% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 67% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 67% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 33% | — | |
| 4% | 33% | — | |
| 5% | 33% | — | |
| 6% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 0% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 0% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 0% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 33% | — | |
| 2% | 33% | — | |
| 2% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24% | 24% at 23Z | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 17% | 10% at 00Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 12% | 1% at 17Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 3% | 1% at 20Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 5% | 1% at 00Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 2% | 1% at 20Z | 0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 4% | 1% at 00Z | 0 | 0 | 21 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=63%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 33% | — | |
| 14% | 50% | — | |
| 10% | 50% | — | |
| 18% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 25% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 25% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 27% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 25% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 18% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 14% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 19% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 19% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 19% | 67% | confident dry | |
| 19% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 20% | 67% | confident dry | |
| 15% | 67% | confident dry | |
| 21% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 15% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 13% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 13% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 11% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 10% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 15% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 16% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 42% | 33% | — | |
| 37% | 33% | — | |
| 43% | 33% | — | |
| 22% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 23% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 29% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 17% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 11% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 13% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 10% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 6% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 11% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 50% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 33% | — | |
| 4% | 33% | — | |
| 5% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 17% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 33% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry |