WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain +72h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
2% 2% at 23Z 0 0 0
27% 3% at 00Z 2 1 9
8% 1% at 19Z 0 0 12
2% 0% at 21Z 0 0 12
1% 0% at 21Z 0 0 12
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=55%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
3% 0% —
12% 43% —
12% 29% —
21% 29% confident dry
28% 43% confident dry
28% 43% confident dry
52% 43% ambiguous
60% 57% confident wet
69% 71% confident wet
44% 71% —
33% 71% —
28% 57% —
17% 71% —
11% 71% —
13% 71% —
34% 57% confident dry
28% 43% confident dry
34% 43% confident dry
33% 43% confident dry
38% 29% confident dry
14% 14% confident dry
12% 14% —
13% 14% —
11% 14% —
19% 29% —
6% 0% —
17% 14% —
10% 14% confident dry
12% 14% confident dry
16% 14% confident dry
18% 14% confident dry
23% 29% confident dry
13% 29% confident dry
8% 29% —
5% 29% —
7% 29% —
9% 29% —
7% 14% —
12% 14% —
3% 14% confident dry
4% 14% confident dry
2% 14% confident dry
2% 14% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
3% 0% —
2% 0% —
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
0% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 14% —
1% 0% —
0% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Bovey Tracey

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
1% 1% at 23Z 0 0 0
10% 2% at 00Z 0 0 12
2% 1% at 19Z 0 0 12
1% 0% at 21Z 0 0 12
0% 0% at 21Z 0 0 12
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=44%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
2% 0% —
5% 43% —
4% 29% —
9% 29% confident dry
13% 43% confident dry
12% 43% confident dry
19% 43% confident dry
20% 57% confident dry
31% 71% confident dry
28% 71% —
12% 71% —
10% 57% —
6% 71% —
5% 71% —
7% 71% —
9% 57% confident dry
8% 43% confident dry
9% 43% confident dry
8% 43% confident dry
11% 29% confident dry
6% 14% confident dry
3% 14% —
3% 14% —
3% 14% —
3% 29% —
2% 0% —
3% 14% —
3% 14% confident dry
3% 14% confident dry
4% 14% confident dry
4% 14% confident dry
3% 29% confident dry
2% 29% confident dry
2% 29% —
1% 29% —
2% 29% —
3% 29% —
3% 14% —
5% 14% —
1% 14% confident dry
1% 14% confident dry
1% 14% confident dry
1% 14% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% —
1% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 14% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
2% 2% at 23Z 0 0 0
29% 4% at 00Z 2 2 8
9% 1% at 19Z 0 0 12
2% 1% at 19Z 0 0 12
1% 0% at 21Z 0 0 12
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=60%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
4% 0% —
13% 43% —
12% 29% —
21% 29% confident dry
28% 43% confident dry
27% 43% confident dry
60% 43% ambiguous
62% 57% confident wet
71% 71% confident wet
45% 71% —
34% 71% —
31% 57% —
20% 71% —
12% 71% —
16% 71% —
36% 57% confident dry
31% 43% confident dry
37% 43% confident dry
36% 43% confident dry
41% 29% ambiguous
15% 14% confident dry
13% 14% —
13% 14% —
12% 14% —
20% 29% —
6% 0% —
18% 14% —
11% 14% confident dry
13% 14% confident dry
20% 14% confident dry
21% 14% confident dry
24% 29% confident dry
13% 29% confident dry
8% 29% —
6% 29% —
7% 29% —
10% 29% —
8% 14% —
13% 14% —
3% 14% confident dry
5% 14% confident dry
3% 14% confident dry
2% 14% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 14% —
1% 0% —
0% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% confident dry
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor