WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Rain +72h
NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.
NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Bellever Dartmoor
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | 24% at 22Z | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13% | 1% at 14Z | 0 | 1 | 11 | |
| 2% | 1% at 12Z | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 5% | 1% at 15Z | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 3% | 1% at 16Z | 0 | 0 | 12 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=57%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 43% | — | |
| 48% | 43% | — | |
| 44% | 29% | — | |
| 49% | 57% | ambiguous | |
| 43% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 36% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 10% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | — | |
| 2% | 14% | — | |
| 1% | 14% | — | |
| 2% | 29% | — | |
| 2% | 29% | — | |
| 1% | 14% | — | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 8% | 14% | — | |
| 5% | 14% | — | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | — | |
| 25% | 43% | — | |
| 11% | 29% | — | |
| 13% | 29% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 5% | 0% | — | |
| 7% | 0% | — | |
| 12% | 14% | — | |
| 12% | 14% | — | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Bovey Tracey
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | 7% at 22Z | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4% | 1% at 14Z | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 1% | 0% at 12Z | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 4% | 1% at 14Z | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 2% | 1% at 13Z | 0 | 0 | 12 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=45%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12% | 43% | — | |
| 10% | 43% | — | |
| 7% | 29% | — | |
| 15% | 57% | confident dry | |
| 11% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 10% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | — | |
| 1% | 14% | — | |
| 1% | 14% | — | |
| 1% | 29% | — | |
| 1% | 29% | — | |
| 1% | 14% | — | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 0% | 0% | — | |
| 0% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 14% | — | |
| 3% | 14% | — | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | — | |
| 20% | 43% | — | |
| 10% | 29% | — | |
| 8% | 29% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 5% | 14% | — | |
| 5% | 14% | — | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | 24% at 22Z | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14% | 1% at 20Z | 0 | 2 | 10 | |
| 2% | 1% at 12Z | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 6% | 1% at 20Z | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 3% | 1% at 12Z | 0 | 0 | 12 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=61%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51% | 43% | — | |
| 50% | 43% | — | |
| 45% | 29% | — | |
| 51% | 57% | ambiguous | |
| 44% | 29% | ambiguous | |
| 35% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 11% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 8% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | — | |
| 2% | 14% | — | |
| 2% | 14% | — | |
| 2% | 29% | — | |
| 2% | 29% | — | |
| 1% | 14% | — | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 5% | 0% | — | |
| 10% | 14% | — | |
| 7% | 14% | — | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 11% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 14% | — | |
| 30% | 43% | — | |
| 15% | 29% | — | |
| 17% | 29% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 0% | — | |
| 5% | 0% | — | |
| 6% | 0% | — | |
| 8% | 0% | — | |
| 13% | 14% | — | |
| 13% | 14% | — | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — |
Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band
Princetown
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
| Date (UTC) | Mean P(wet) | Driest hour | conf wet h | amb h | conf dry h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 23% at 22Z | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13% | 1% at 17Z | 0 | 1 | 11 | |
| 2% | 1% at 13Z | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 5% | 1% at 20Z | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
| 3% | 1% at 12Z | 0 | 0 | 12 |
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=57%
| Valid time | P(wet) | NWPs wet | Conformal (90% set) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47% | 43% | — | |
| 47% | 43% | — | |
| 41% | 29% | — | |
| 50% | 57% | ambiguous | |
| 40% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 34% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 10% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 7% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 6% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | — | |
| 2% | 14% | — | |
| 2% | 14% | — | |
| 2% | 29% | — | |
| 2% | 29% | — | |
| 1% | 14% | — | |
| 2% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 8% | 14% | — | |
| 5% | 14% | — | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 9% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 29% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 14% | — | |
| 26% | 43% | — | |
| 14% | 29% | — | |
| 15% | 29% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 5% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 4% | 0% | — | |
| 7% | 0% | — | |
| 12% | 14% | — | |
| 12% | 14% | — | |
| 3% | 14% | confident dry | |
| 3% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 4% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | — | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 1% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | confident dry | |
| 2% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — | |
| 3% | 0% | — |