WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain +72h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Bellever Dartmoor

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
8% 4% at 06Z 0 0 11
12% 1% at 14Z 0 0 12
12% 1% at 11Z 0 0 12
49% 4% at 22Z 5 2 5
4% 2% at 14Z 0 0 12
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=60%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
15% 71% —
18% 71% —
14% 71% —
24% 86% confident dry
20% 86% confident dry
21% 86% confident dry
21% 86% confident dry
20% 86% confident dry
30% 57% confident dry
17% 71% —
18% 43% —
17% 43% —
17% 43% —
2% 0% —
1% 0% —
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
4% 0% —
10% 0% confident dry
9% 0% confident dry
9% 0% confident dry
7% 0% confident dry
7% 0% confident dry
7% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 14% —
6% 14% confident dry
9% 29% confident dry
15% 29% confident dry
18% 43% confident dry
24% 29% confident dry
27% 43% confident dry
17% 43% —
46% 57% —
60% 57% —
84% 71% —
87% 57% —
88% 57% —
70% 57% confident wet
74% 57% confident wet
74% 71% confident wet
72% 57% confident wet
62% 57% confident wet
49% 57% ambiguous
62% 71% —
65% 57% —
48% 57% —
49% 71% —
52% 57% —
70% 71% —
50% 71% ambiguous
26% 29% confident dry
30% 29% confident dry
22% 29% confident dry
13% 0% confident dry
12% 0% confident dry
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
6% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
8% 0% confident dry
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
3% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
3% 14% —
3% 14% —
2% 14% —
2% 0% —
2% 0% —
5% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
7% 0% confident dry
7% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
7% 0% confident dry
7% 0% confident dry
7% 0% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Bovey Tracey

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
7% 2% at 06Z 0 0 11
6% 0% at 14Z 0 0 12
4% 0% at 09Z 0 0 12
15% 1% at 21Z 0 0 12
1% 1% at 14Z 0 0 12
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=52%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
13% 71% —
16% 71% —
17% 71% —
15% 86% confident dry
14% 86% confident dry
15% 86% confident dry
10% 86% confident dry
9% 86% confident dry
15% 57% confident dry
5% 71% —
5% 43% —
5% 43% —
3% 43% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
0% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
4% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 0% —
0% 14% —
1% 14% confident dry
2% 29% confident dry
3% 29% confident dry
5% 43% confident dry
6% 29% confident dry
8% 43% confident dry
5% 43% —
15% 57% —
22% 57% —
30% 71% —
32% 57% —
35% 57% —
23% 57% confident dry
22% 57% confident dry
24% 71% confident dry
29% 57% confident dry
14% 57% confident dry
15% 57% confident dry
13% 71% —
17% 57% —
14% 57% —
15% 71% —
16% 57% —
32% 71% —
11% 71% confident dry
5% 29% confident dry
6% 29% confident dry
5% 29% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
3% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
2% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 14% —
1% 14% —
1% 14% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% —
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
1% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry
2% 0% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour conf wet h amb h conf dry h
10% 4% at 04Z 0 0 11
15% 2% at 14Z 0 1 11
16% 3% at 12Z 0 1 11
50% 5% at 22Z 4 3 5
6% 3% at 08Z 0 0 12
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread) · τ=66%
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Conformal (90% set)
16% 71% —
19% 71% —
14% 71% —
28% 86% confident dry
24% 86% confident dry
27% 86% confident dry
24% 86% confident dry
23% 86% confident dry
35% 57% ambiguous
20% 71% —
23% 43% —
25% 43% —
32% 43% —
4% 0% —
2% 0% —
6% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
4% 0% confident dry
5% 0% confident dry
3% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
4% 0% —
6% 0% —
15% 0% confident dry
13% 0% confident dry
14% 0% confident dry
11% 0% confident dry
10% 0% confident dry
11% 0% confident dry
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
4% 14% —
10% 14% confident dry
13% 29% confident dry
20% 29% confident dry
22% 43% confident dry
31% 29% confident dry
35% 43% ambiguous
20% 43% —
51% 57% —
65% 57% —
84% 71% —
88% 57% —
89% 57% —
72% 57% confident wet
77% 57% confident wet
77% 71% confident wet
74% 57% confident wet
64% 57% ambiguous
51% 57% ambiguous
61% 71% —
65% 57% —
49% 57% —
52% 71% —
53% 57% —
71% 71% —
50% 71% ambiguous
28% 29% confident dry
31% 29% confident dry
24% 29% confident dry
15% 0% confident dry
14% 0% confident dry
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
5% 0% —
7% 0% confident dry
7% 0% confident dry
10% 0% confident dry
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
4% 14% —
5% 14% —
4% 14% —
3% 0% —
3% 0% —
6% 0% confident dry
6% 0% confident dry
8% 0% confident dry
9% 0% confident dry
8% 0% confident dry
7% 0% confident dry
8% 0% confident dry
8% 0% confident dry
8% 0% confident dry

Phase 4a — BART posterior P(wet) + 90% band

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor