WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Skill — temperature

Blenders vs ERA5 truth + EGTE METAR and Taw Green obs (both lower than the 393 m tor → expect a warm bias).

Vs truth

Phase 2c rich (88 features)

Adds per-model dew point, RH, cloud {total/low/mid/high}, wind speed/dir/gusts, surface pressure, plus cross-model aggregates. Challenger.

Phase 2b lean (13 features)

Six per-model temperatures, their mean/std/range, and cyclical hour/day-of-year encodings. The original champion.

Phase 2d exact-runtime (T2, leads 12+24)

Per-cycle exact init time + lead, GFS+AIFS required, IFS+MO Global optional. Champion at lead 12; challenger at lead 24. Sparse panel until verify catches up (~5d ERA5 latency).

Phase comparison — +24h lead


Rolling MAE

<24hr

Lead +24h

Lead +48h

Lead +72h

Lead +96h

Lead +120h