WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Skill — dry window
Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.
2-hour dry window
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97% | 93% | 93% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 99% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 99% | ✓ |
3-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 61% | 59% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 64% | ✓ | |
| 95% | 78% | 97% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 97% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 85% | 86% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 96% | 94% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 97% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 98% | ✓ |
4-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 29% | 48% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 96% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 88% | 48% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 88% | 53% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 100% | 97% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 76% | 76% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 96% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 92% | 88% | ✓ | |
| 94% | 93% | 99% | — | |
| 100% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 98% | 95% | ✓ |
5-hour dry window
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 66% | 67% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 88% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 85% | 83% | ✓ | |
| 91% | 81% | 99% | — | |
| 100% | 98% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 93% | 90% | ✓ |
6-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38% | 10% | 14% | ✓ | |
| 66% | 74% | 69% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 65% | 20% | ✓ | |
| 57% | 17% | 50% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 83% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 88% | 100% | 81% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 57% | 59% | ✓ | |
| 92% | 84% | 90% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 74% | 75% | ✓ | |
| 84% | 69% | 97% | — | |
| 99% | 96% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 97% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 93% | 90% | 85% | ✓ |