WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Skill — dry window
Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.
2-hour dry window
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 99% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 96% | 93% | ✓ | |
| 58% | 72% | 91% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 96% | 94% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 96% | 99% | ✓ |
3-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 95% | 74% | ✓ | |
| 53% | 68% | 87% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 93% | 100% | 96% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 92% | 88% | 81% | ✓ | |
| 41% | 57% | 82% | ✓ | |
| 95% | 90% | 88% | ✓ | |
| 94% | 91% | 96% | ✓ |
4-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 99% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 89% | 89% | 86% | ✓ | |
| 55% | 39% | 70% | ✓ | |
| 87% | 95% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 86% | 97% | 98% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 99% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 95% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 85% | 81% | 69% | ✓ | |
| 28% | 45% | 73% | ✓ | |
| 91% | 83% | 79% | ✓ | |
| 88% | 84% | 92% | ✓ |
5-hour dry window
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | 98% | 91% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 89% | 93% | ✓ | |
| 76% | 63% | 63% | ✓ | |
| 18% | 33% | 63% | ✗ | |
| 76% | 68% | 66% | ✓ | |
| 79% | 76% | 87% | ✓ |
6-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 66% | 89% | ✓ | |
| 42% | 57% | 39% | ✓ | |
| 14% | 14% | 14% | ✗ | |
| 56% | 59% | 91% | ✓ | |
| 24% | 93% | 76% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98% | 96% | 87% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 93% | 84% | 89% | ✓ | |
| 65% | 47% | 51% | ✓ | |
| 13% | 21% | 54% | ✗ | |
| 62% | 52% | 58% | ✓ | |
| 68% | 68% | 81% | ✓ |