WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Skill — dry window

Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.

2-hour dry window

Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
100%100%100% ✓
100%100%100% ✓
100%100%100% ✓
100%99%99% ✓
99%97%99% ✓
100%99%99% ✓
100%99%100% ✓

3-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
99%99%99% ✓
99%99%99% ✓
99%99%99% ✓
99%99%97% ✓
98%94%97% ✓
99%99%99% ✓
99%99%99% ✓
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
100%100%99% ✓
100%100%100% ✓
100%99%99% ✓
98%97%95% ✓
96%92%98% ✓
99%98%97% ✓
99%98%99% ✓

4-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
97%98%98% ✓
97%98%98% ✓
98%97%97% ✓
98%97%95% ✓
93%96%94% ✓
98%98%98% ✓
97%98%98% ✓
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
100%99%98% ✓
100%99%100% ✓
99%96%98% ✓
96%93%90% ✓
90%86%95% ✓
98%95%94% ✓
97%95%98% ✓

5-hour dry window

Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
99%98%95% ✓
99%98%99% ✓
97%91%94% ✓
92%85%85% ✓
82%76%91% ✓
93%88%87% ✓
93%90%95% ✓

6-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
98%98%99% ✓
98%98%99% ✓
96%96%98% ✓
96%94%90% ✓
78%82%89% ✓
96%88%98% ✓
94%98%97% ✓
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
98%97%92% ✓
98%97%98% ✓
94%86%92% ✓
87%76%79% ✓
75%67%87% ✓
88%83%81% ✓
88%85%92% ✓