WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Skill — dry window
Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.
2-hour dry window
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | 97% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ |
3-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | 90% | 89% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 96% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97% | 92% | 94% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 99% | ✓ |
4-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 90% | 82% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 95% | 94% | — | |
| 99% | 99% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 98% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94% | 85% | 88% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 98% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 97% | ✓ |
5-hour dry window
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 75% | 82% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 96% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 96% | 94% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 95% | 99% | — | |
| 100% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 98% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 95% | 92% | ✓ |
6-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 37% | 30% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 84% | 94% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 94% | 71% | ✓ | |
| 92% | 51% | 70% | — | |
| 94% | 94% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 95% | 94% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 98% | 91% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 68% | 75% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 94% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 91% | 90% | ✓ | |
| 94% | 89% | 99% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 93% | 92% | 87% | ✓ |