WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Skill — dry window
Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.
2-hour dry window
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 99% | 99% | ✓ |
3-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | 99% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 92% | 95% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 93% | 96% | 97% | ✓ |
4-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98% | 98% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 95% | 98% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 92% | 82% | 83% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 87% | 92% | 93% | ✓ |
5-hour dry window
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 98% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 95% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 98% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 81% | 85% | 88% | ✓ |
6-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 97% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 85% | 80% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 88% | 92% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 88% | 92% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 88% | 92% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 91% | 92% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 81% | 55% | 36% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | 96% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 89% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 98% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 97% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 95% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 71% | 80% | 82% | ✓ |