WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Skill — dry window
Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.
2-hour dry window
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 99% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 96% | 91% | ✓ | |
| 57% | 72% | 89% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 96% | 94% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 96% | 99% | ✓ |
3-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | 97% | 93% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 95% | 93% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 97% | 92% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 88% | 91% | ✓ | |
| 25% | 29% | 81% | ✓ | |
| 94% | 89% | 88% | ✓ | |
| 67% | 94% | 88% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 91% | 88% | 78% | ✓ | |
| 39% | 54% | 79% | ✓ | |
| 95% | 90% | 87% | ✓ | |
| 94% | 90% | 96% | ✓ |
4-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 96% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 89% | 77% | 90% | ✓ | |
| 23% | 39% | 68% | ✗ | |
| 81% | 70% | 94% | ✓ | |
| 45% | 90% | 88% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | 99% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 95% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 83% | 80% | 64% | ✓ | |
| 26% | 42% | 69% | ✗ | |
| 90% | 82% | 77% | ✓ | |
| 88% | 83% | 92% | ✓ |
5-hour dry window
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98% | 97% | 90% | ✗ | |
| 99% | 98% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 88% | 92% | ✓ | |
| 74% | 62% | 57% | ✓ | |
| 16% | 30% | 58% | ✗ | |
| 74% | 66% | 64% | ✓ | |
| 78% | 74% | 86% | ✗ |
6-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 92% | 90% | ✗ | |
| 91% | 90% | 91% | ✓ | |
| 86% | 86% | 69% | ✓ | |
| 56% | 47% | 62% | ✗ | |
| 13% | 19% | 23% | ✗ | |
| 56% | 48% | 71% | ✗ | |
| 21% | 71% | 55% | ✗ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97% | 96% | 86% | ✗ | |
| 97% | 97% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 92% | 83% | 88% | ✓ | |
| 62% | 45% | 46% | ✗ | |
| 12% | 19% | 49% | ✗ | |
| 60% | 51% | 55% | ✗ | |
| 67% | 66% | 80% | ✗ |