WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Skill — dry window

Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.

2-hour dry window

Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
96%93%92% ✓
100%99%99% ✓
100%98%97% ✓
99%99%100% —
100%100%100% ✓
100%100%100% ✓
100%100%99% ✓

3-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
61%88%53% ✓
97%90%93% ✓
98%80%89% ✓
95%83%86% —
98%95%96% ✓
97%93%97% ✓
95%95%93% ✓
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
90%84%83% ✓
98%97%98% ✓
100%94%91% ✓
97%96%100% —
100%99%99% ✓
100%100%100% ✓
99%98%97% ✓

4-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
28%42%33% ✓
83%77%64% ✓
79%79%59% ✓
77%73%67% —
94%95%95% ✓
94%95%96% ✓
93%95%82% ✓
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
83%74%72% ✓
96%93%95% ✓
99%89%84% ✓
93%92%99% —
100%98%98% ✓
99%99%99% ✓
98%95%94% ✓

5-hour dry window

Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
76%64%62% ✓
93%82%91% ✓
98%81%77% ✓
90%76%98% —
99%96%96% ✓
99%96%98% ✓
96%87%88% ✓

6-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
23%20%13% ✓
67%50%40% ✓
55%37%15% ✓
50%48%41% —
87%87%76% ✓
86%93%83% ✓
71%88%54% ✓
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
68%55%53% ✓
87%77%84% ✓
96%70%68% ✓
81%63%96% —
98%93%94% ✓
97%95%97% ✓
91%81%83% ✓