WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Skill — dry window
Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.
2-hour dry window
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 89% | 87% | 92% | ✓ |
3-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 96% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 90% | 92% | 93% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 96% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 96% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 96% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 96% | 93% | ✓ | |
| 64% | 56% | 62% | ✓ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 99% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 77% | 76% | 83% | ✓ |
4-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 90% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 79% | 76% | 86% | ✓ | |
| 95% | 95% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 95% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 95% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 95% | 88% | ✓ | |
| 28% | 45% | 50% | ✗ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 99% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 91% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 99% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 65% | 64% | 73% | ✗ |
5-hour dry window
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | 95% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 87% | 96% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 97% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 95% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 56% | 52% | 63% | ✗ |
6-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 92% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 68% | 80% | 86% | ✓ | |
| 94% | 93% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 92% | 95% | ✓ | |
| 94% | 94% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 94% | 92% | 91% | ✓ | |
| 16% | 13% | 15% | ✗ |
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98% | 91% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 80% | 94% | 94% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 96% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 97% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 96% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 93% | 91% | 91% | ✓ | |
| 44% | 43% | 52% | ✗ |