WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Dry-window models

Per-(station, window) P(N-hour dry block in 09–18 local). 3b LightGBM + 3p copula MC. Brier, lower better. Δ vs best single NWP — negative = blend wins.

Dry window — Bellever Dartmoor — 2-hour

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150640_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (1 run)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080817_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054510_phase3p		 8 0.001
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——

Dry window — Bellever Dartmoor — 3-hour

Phase 3b · v2026-06-14_145202 Δ -0.003 vs prev train

53-feature LightGBM per-(station, window). Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.086 has_dry_window_gfs (0.207) -58.8%
+48h 0.109 has_dry_window_gfs (0.193) -43.3%
+72h 0.096 has_dry_window_gfs (0.178) -46.0%
Verify history (16 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-07_140739 26 0.060
—		0.047
—		0.074
—		——
v2026-06-07_140739 11 0.072
—		0.014
—		0.141
—		——
v2026-05-31_204435 23 0.305
—		0.219
—		0.168
—		——
v2026-05-31_204435 18 0.373
—		0.280
—		0.213
—		——
v2026-05-31_204435 6 0.676
—		0.306
—		0.101
—		——
v2026-05-24_131915 29 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-24_131915 14 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-14_052009 32 0.062
—		0.123
—		0.054
—		——
v2026-05-14_052009 14 0.141
—		0.345
—		0.206
—		——
v2026-04-29_120905 50 0.005
—		0.015
—		0.043
—		——
v2026-04-29_120905 57 0.006
—		0.002
—		0.097
—		——
v2026-04-29_120905 64 0.043
—		0.032
—		0.118
—		——
v2026-04-29_120905 54 0.049
—		0.039
—		0.127
—		——
v2026-04-29_120905 25 0.030
—		0.078
—		0.155
—		——
v2026-04-27_192657
v2026-04-28_161801
v2026-04-29_120905		 5 0.003
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-04-23_101107
v2026-04-27_192657		 12 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150640_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (7 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080817_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054510_phase3p		 8 0.004
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-06-07_142135_phase3p 11 0.042
—		0.036
—		0.012
—		——
v2026-05-31_205722_phase3p 23 0.131
—		0.158
—		0.221
—		——
v2026-05-31_205722_phase3p 18 0.159
—		0.200
—		0.275
—		——
v2026-05-31_205722_phase3p 6 0.237
—		0.129
—		0.207
—		——
v2026-05-26_110451_phase3p 18 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-26_110451_phase3p 3 0.000
—		————

Dry window — Bellever Dartmoor — 4-hour

Phase 3b · v2026-06-14_145318 Δ -0.003 vs prev train

53-feature LightGBM per-(station, window). Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.093 has_dry_window_mf (0.185) -49.9%
+48h 0.106 has_dry_window_ecmwf (0.222) -52.4%
+72h 0.119 has_dry_window_ecmwf (0.267) -55.5%
Verify history (16 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-07_140851 26 0.053
—		0.051
—		0.062
—		——
v2026-06-07_140851 11 0.055
—		0.173
—		0.114
—		——
v2026-05-31_204541 23 0.190
—		0.121
—		0.088
—		——
v2026-05-31_204541 18 0.227
—		0.153
—		0.108
—		——
v2026-05-31_204541 6 0.543
—		0.104
—		0.073
—		——
v2026-05-24_132009 29 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-24_132009 14 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-14_052407 32 0.175
—		0.102
—		0.087
—		——
v2026-05-14_052407 14 0.401
—		0.286
—		0.332
—		——
v2026-04-29_121003 50 0.076
—		0.054
—		0.061
—		——
v2026-04-29_121003 57 0.002
—		0.021
—		0.101
—		——
v2026-04-29_121003 64 0.058
—		0.149
—		0.142
—		——
v2026-04-29_121003 54 0.068
—		0.185
—		0.161
—		——
v2026-04-29_121003 25 0.055
—		0.212
—		0.202
—		——
v2026-04-27_192749
v2026-04-28_161822
v2026-04-29_121003		 5 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-04-23_101150
v2026-04-27_192749		 12 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150640_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (7 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080817_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054510_phase3p		 8 0.012
—		0.000
—		0.002
—		——
v2026-06-07_142135_phase3p 11 0.098
—		0.085
—		0.033
—		——
v2026-05-31_205722_phase3p 23 0.076
—		0.104
—		0.154
—		——
v2026-05-31_205722_phase3p 18 0.087
—		0.125
—		0.184
—		——
v2026-05-31_205722_phase3p 6 0.133
—		0.060
—		0.101
—		——
v2026-05-26_110451_phase3p 18 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-26_110451_phase3p 3 0.000
—		————

Dry window — Bellever Dartmoor — 5-hour

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150640_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (1 run)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080817_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054510_phase3p		 8 0.034
—		0.000
—		0.006
—		——

Dry window — Bellever Dartmoor — 6-hour

Phase 3b · v2026-06-14_145432 Δ +0.013 vs prev train

53-feature LightGBM per-(station, window). Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.109 has_dry_window_mf (0.185) -40.9%
+48h 0.111 has_dry_window_jma (0.193) -42.6%
+72h 0.160 has_dry_window_jma (0.207) -22.8%
Verify history (16 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-07_141001 26 0.110
—		0.075
—		0.025
—		——
v2026-06-07_141001 11 0.252
—		0.234
—		0.081
—		——
v2026-05-31_204645 23 0.094
—		0.060
—		0.143
—		——
v2026-05-31_204645 18 0.074
—		0.062
—		0.118
—		——
v2026-05-31_204645 6 0.000
—		0.001
—		0.008
—		——
v2026-05-24_132101 29 0.012
—		0.021
—		0.007
—		——
v2026-05-24_132101 14 0.002
—		0.016
—		0.045
—		——
v2026-05-14_052612 32 0.241
—		0.134
—		0.160
—		——
v2026-05-14_052612 14 0.552
—		0.376
—		0.613
—		——
v2026-05-03_120517 50 0.128
—		0.049
—		0.203
—		——
v2026-05-03_120517 51 0.158
—		0.162
—		0.192
—		——
v2026-05-03_120517 31 0.110
—		0.288
—		0.311
—		——
v2026-05-03_120517 17 0.149
—		0.397
—		0.732
—		——
v2026-04-29_121058 25 0.079
—		0.031
—		0.125
—		——
v2026-04-27_192839
v2026-04-28_161844
v2026-04-29_121058		 5 0.013
—		0.002
—		0.002
—		——
v2026-04-23_101214
v2026-04-27_182428
v2026-04-27_192839		 11 0.001
—		0.000
—		0.001
—		——

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150640_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (7 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080817_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054510_phase3p		 8 0.059
—		0.001
—		0.016
—		——
v2026-06-07_142135_phase3p 11 0.270
—		0.303
—		0.368
—		——
v2026-05-31_205722_phase3p 23 0.062
—		0.057
—		0.116
—		——
v2026-05-31_205722_phase3p 18 0.053
—		0.044
—		0.113
—		——
v2026-05-31_205722_phase3p 6 0.032
—		0.011
—		0.012
—		——
v2026-05-26_110451_phase3p 18 0.001
—		0.001
—		0.002
—		——
v2026-05-26_110451_phase3p 3 0.000
—		————

Dry window — Bovey Tracey — 2-hour

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150642_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (1 run)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080819_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054512_phase3p		 8 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——

Dry window — Bovey Tracey — 3-hour

Phase 3b · v2026-06-14_145544 Δ -0.005 vs prev train

53-feature LightGBM per-(station, window). Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.049 has_dry_window_icon (0.062) -20.6%
+48h 0.044 has_dry_window_mf (0.085) -48.0%
+72h 0.045 has_dry_window_gfs (0.092) -51.2%
Verify history (13 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-07_141111 26 0.004
—		0.005
—		0.003
—		——
v2026-06-07_141111 11 0.000
—		0.006
—		0.001
—		——
v2026-05-31_204749 28 0.027
—		0.016
—		0.023
—		——
v2026-05-31_204749 24 0.031
—		0.020
—		0.030
—		——
v2026-05-31_204749 11 0.017
—		0.005
—		0.088
—		——
v2026-05-24_132152 29 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-24_132152 14 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-14_052815 32 0.002
—		0.008
—		0.002
—		——
v2026-05-14_052815 14 0.003
—		0.022
—		0.006
—		——
v2026-05-03_233816 50 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.003
—		——
v2026-05-03_233816 51 0.000
—		0.001
—		0.004
—		——
v2026-05-03_233816 24 0.001
—		0.001
—		0.010
—		——
v2026-05-03_233816 10 0.001
—		0.004
—		———

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150642_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (7 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080819_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054512_phase3p		 8 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-06-07_142137_phase3p 11 0.002
—		0.002
—		0.001
—		——
v2026-05-31_205723_phase3p 28 0.053
—		0.049
—		0.018
—		——
v2026-05-31_205723_phase3p 24 0.061
—		0.062
—		0.023
—		——
v2026-05-31_205723_phase3p 11 0.036
—		0.096
—		0.092
—		——
v2026-05-26_110452_phase3p 18 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-26_110452_phase3p 3 0.000
—		————

Dry window — Bovey Tracey — 4-hour

Phase 3b · v2026-06-14_145655 Δ -0.005 vs prev train

53-feature LightGBM per-(station, window). Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.067 has_dry_window_mf (0.200) -66.4%
+48h 0.063 has_dry_window_mf (0.169) -63.0%
+72h 0.072 has_dry_window_gfs (0.200) -64.2%
Verify history (13 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-07_141220 26 0.026
—		0.018
—		0.022
—		——
v2026-06-07_141220 11 0.018
—		0.021
—		0.028
—		——
v2026-05-31_204851 28 0.114
—		0.056
—		0.085
—		——
v2026-05-31_204851 24 0.133
—		0.071
—		0.108
—		——
v2026-05-31_204851 11 0.096
—		0.066
—		0.342
—		——
v2026-05-24_132243 29 0.001
—		0.001
—		0.002
—		——
v2026-05-24_132243 14 0.001
—		0.001
—		0.004
—		——
v2026-05-14_053030 32 0.001
—		0.009
—		0.003
—		——
v2026-05-14_053030 14 0.003
—		0.024
—		0.009
—		——
v2026-05-03_233924 50 0.004
—		0.003
—		0.013
—		——
v2026-05-03_233924 51 0.002
—		0.002
—		0.014
—		——
v2026-05-03_233924 24 0.003
—		0.004
—		0.031
—		——
v2026-05-03_233924 10 0.005
—		0.010
—		———

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150642_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (7 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080819_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054512_phase3p		 8 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-06-07_142137_phase3p 11 0.010
—		0.007
—		0.003
—		——
v2026-05-31_205723_phase3p 28 0.127
—		0.098
—		0.048
—		——
v2026-05-31_205723_phase3p 24 0.148
—		0.122
—		0.060
—		——
v2026-05-31_205723_phase3p 11 0.125
—		0.184
—		0.199
—		——
v2026-05-26_110452_phase3p 18 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-26_110452_phase3p 3 0.000
—		————

Dry window — Bovey Tracey — 5-hour

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150642_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (1 run)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080819_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054512_phase3p		 8 0.001
—		0.000
—		0.002
—		——

Dry window — Bovey Tracey — 6-hour

Phase 3b · v2026-06-14_145807 Δ -0.009 vs prev train

53-feature LightGBM per-(station, window). Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.112 has_dry_window_gfs (0.231) -51.5%
+48h 0.116 has_dry_window_gfs (0.262) -55.8%
+72h 0.130 has_dry_window_icon (0.231) -43.5%
Verify history (13 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-07_141329 26 0.114
—		0.055
—		0.085
—		——
v2026-06-07_141329 11 0.065
—		0.080
—		0.064
—		——
v2026-05-31_204955 28 0.106
—		0.161
—		0.194
—		——
v2026-05-31_204955 24 0.123
—		0.203
—		0.246
—		——
v2026-05-31_204955 11 0.091
—		0.162
—		0.010
—		——
v2026-05-24_132334 29 0.017
—		0.004
—		0.001
—		——
v2026-05-24_132334 14 0.033
—		0.008
—		0.001
—		——
v2026-05-14_053806 32 0.026
—		0.088
—		0.017
—		——
v2026-05-14_053806 14 0.058
—		0.245
—		0.064
—		——
v2026-05-03_234027 50 0.047
—		0.146
—		0.168
—		——
v2026-05-03_234027 51 0.012
—		0.018
—		0.017
—		——
v2026-05-03_234027 24 0.024
—		0.038
—		0.029
—		——
v2026-05-03_234027 10 0.050
—		0.103
—		———

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150642_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (7 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080819_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054512_phase3p		 8 0.003
—		0.001
—		0.006
—		——
v2026-06-07_142137_phase3p 11 0.066
—		0.053
—		0.028
—		——
v2026-05-31_205723_phase3p 28 0.185
—		0.150
—		0.192
—		——
v2026-05-31_205723_phase3p 24 0.213
—		0.182
—		0.236
—		——
v2026-05-31_205723_phase3p 11 0.236
—		0.115
—		0.067
—		——
v2026-05-26_110452_phase3p 18 0.000
—		0.001
—		0.001
—		——
v2026-05-26_110452_phase3p 3 0.000
—		————

Dry window — Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy — 2-hour

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150643_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (1 run)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080820_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054514_phase3p		 8 0.001
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——

Dry window — Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy — 3-hour

Phase 3b · v2026-06-14_145920 Δ -0.006 vs prev train

53-feature LightGBM per-(station, window). Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.114 has_dry_window_icon (0.215) -46.9%
+48h 0.137 has_dry_window_gfs (0.222) -38.4%
+72h 0.129 has_dry_window_mf (0.230) -43.9%
Verify history (15 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-07_141438 26 0.016
—		0.115
—		0.063
—		——
v2026-06-07_141438 11 0.028
—		0.108
—		0.055
—		——
v2026-05-31_205058 23 0.130
—		0.223
—		0.177
—		——
v2026-05-31_205058 18 0.158
—		0.283
—		0.221
—		——
v2026-05-31_205058 6 0.385
—		0.305
—		0.201
—		——
v2026-05-24_132426 29 0.000
—		0.002
—		0.003
—		——
v2026-05-24_132426 14 0.000
—		0.002
—		0.004
—		——
v2026-05-14_054446 32 0.400
—		0.233
—		0.188
—		——
v2026-05-14_054446 14 0.284
—		0.273
—		0.124
—		——
v2026-04-29_121459 50 0.081
—		0.156
—		0.153
—		——
v2026-04-29_121459 57 0.002
—		0.006
—		0.048
—		——
v2026-04-29_121459 64 0.018
—		0.032
—		0.048
—		——
v2026-04-29_121459 54 0.021
—		0.038
—		0.057
—		——
v2026-04-29_121459 25 0.005
—		0.070
—		0.061
—		——
v2026-04-29_121459 5 0.000
—		————

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150643_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (7 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080820_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054514_phase3p		 8 0.004
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-06-07_142138_phase3p 11 0.049
—		0.037
—		0.011
—		——
v2026-05-31_205725_phase3p 23 0.124
—		0.152
—		0.206
—		——
v2026-05-31_205725_phase3p 18 0.151
—		0.192
—		0.256
—		——
v2026-05-31_205725_phase3p 6 0.226
—		0.120
—		0.216
—		——
v2026-05-26_110453_phase3p 18 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-26_110453_phase3p 3 0.000
—		————

Dry window — Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy — 4-hour

Phase 3b · v2026-06-14_150033 Δ -0.003 vs prev train

53-feature LightGBM per-(station, window). Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.134 has_dry_window_jma (0.156) -14.1%
+48h 0.162 has_dry_window_ecmwf (0.230) -29.3%
+72h 0.146 has_dry_window_aifs (0.267) -45.1%
Verify history (15 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-07_141547 26 0.046
—		0.090
—		0.030
—		——
v2026-06-07_141547 11 0.073
—		0.312
—		0.034
—		——
v2026-05-31_205201 23 0.085
—		0.080
—		0.115
—		——
v2026-05-31_205201 18 0.101
—		0.100
—		0.140
—		——
v2026-05-31_205201 6 0.171
—		0.080
—		0.052
—		——
v2026-05-24_132517 29 0.001
—		0.001
—		0.001
—		——
v2026-05-24_132517 14 0.001
—		0.001
—		0.001
—		——
v2026-05-14_055125 32 0.432
—		0.246
—		0.241
—		——
v2026-05-14_055125 14 0.369
—		0.311
—		0.291
—		——
v2026-04-29_121554 50 0.234
—		0.175
—		0.174
—		——
v2026-04-29_121554 57 0.254
—		0.178
—		0.259
—		——
v2026-04-29_121554 64 0.152
—		0.150
—		0.225
—		——
v2026-04-29_121554 54 0.176
—		0.186
—		0.287
—		——
v2026-04-29_121554 25 0.090
—		0.097
—		0.044
—		——
v2026-04-29_121554 5 0.001
—		————

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150643_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (7 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080820_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054514_phase3p		 8 0.013
—		0.000
—		0.002
—		——
v2026-06-07_142138_phase3p 11 0.116
—		0.090
—		0.033
—		——
v2026-05-31_205725_phase3p 23 0.069
—		0.098
—		0.143
—		——
v2026-05-31_205725_phase3p 18 0.082
—		0.117
—		0.169
—		——
v2026-05-31_205725_phase3p 6 0.123
—		0.054
—		0.107
—		——
v2026-05-26_110453_phase3p 18 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-26_110453_phase3p 3 0.000
—		————

Dry window — Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy — 5-hour

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150643_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (1 run)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080820_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054514_phase3p		 8 0.521
—		0.954
—		0.838
—		——

Dry window — Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy — 6-hour

Phase 3b · v2026-06-14_150146 Δ +0.010 vs prev train

53-feature LightGBM per-(station, window). Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.164 has_dry_window_mf (0.267) -38.6%
+48h 0.165 has_dry_window_gem (0.296) -44.3%
+72h 0.199 has_dry_window_ecmwf (0.244) -18.6%
Verify history (15 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-07_141656 26 0.244
—		0.279
—		0.278
—		——
v2026-06-07_141656 11 0.227
—		0.123
—		0.107
—		——
v2026-05-31_205304 23 0.073
—		0.134
—		0.125
—		——
v2026-05-31_205304 18 0.049
—		0.070
—		0.093
—		——
v2026-05-31_205304 6 0.023
—		0.033
—		0.029
—		——
v2026-05-24_132609 29 0.019
—		0.008
—		0.024
—		——
v2026-05-24_132609 14 0.013
—		0.011
—		0.074
—		——
v2026-05-14_055801 32 0.328
—		0.138
—		0.164
—		——
v2026-05-14_055801 14 0.200
—		0.039
—		0.144
—		——
v2026-05-03_120600 50 0.120
—		0.111
—		0.197
—		——
v2026-05-03_120600 51 0.252
—		0.181
—		0.231
—		——
v2026-05-03_120600 31 0.411
—		0.290
—		0.415
—		——
v2026-05-03_120600 17 0.536
—		0.394
—		0.574
—		——
v2026-04-29_121648 25 0.405
—		0.403
—		0.170
—		——
v2026-04-29_121648 5 0.070
—		————

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150643_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (7 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080820_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054514_phase3p		 8 0.532
—		0.924
—		0.758
—		——
v2026-06-07_142138_phase3p 11 0.217
—		0.241
—		0.379
—		——
v2026-05-31_205725_phase3p 23 0.168
—		0.198
—		0.165
—		——
v2026-05-31_205725_phase3p 18 0.085
—		0.131
—		0.099
—		——
v2026-05-31_205725_phase3p 6 0.029
—		0.010
—		0.012
—		——
v2026-05-26_110453_phase3p 18 0.001
—		0.001
—		0.002
—		——
v2026-05-26_110453_phase3p 3 0.000
—		————

Dry window — Princetown — 2-hour

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150645_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (1 run)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080822_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054515_phase3p		 8 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——

Dry window — Princetown — 3-hour

Phase 3b · v2026-06-14_150259 Δ +0.006 vs prev train

53-feature LightGBM per-(station, window). Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.136 has_dry_window_jma (0.179) -24.0%
+48h 0.154 has_dry_window_ecmwf (0.284) -45.7%
+72h 0.120 has_dry_window_mf (0.179) -33.0%
Verify history (8 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-07_141804 24 0.045
—		0.098
—		0.044
—		——
v2026-06-07_141804 9 0.068
—		0.144
—		0.035
—		——
v2026-05-31_205408 28 0.207
—		0.222
—		0.162
—		——
v2026-05-31_205408 24 0.241
—		0.281
—		0.203
—		——
v2026-05-31_205408 11 0.305
—		0.292
—		0.122
—		——
v2026-05-26_110225 18 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-26_110225 3 0.000
—		————
v2026-04-23_101238
v2026-04-27_192928		 11 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150645_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (7 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080822_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054515_phase3p		 8 0.002
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-06-07_142140_phase3p 9 0.029
—		0.024
—		0.009
—		——
v2026-05-31_205726_phase3p 28 0.169
—		0.179
—		0.252
—		——
v2026-05-31_205726_phase3p 24 0.196
—		0.224
—		0.317
—		——
v2026-05-31_205726_phase3p 11 0.229
—		0.149
—		0.251
—		——
v2026-05-26_110454_phase3p 18 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-26_110454_phase3p 3 0.000
—		————

Dry window — Princetown — 4-hour

Phase 3b · v2026-06-14_150412 Δ -0.004 vs prev train

53-feature LightGBM per-(station, window). Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.130 has_dry_window_jma (0.157) -17.1%
+48h 0.144 has_dry_window_ecmwf (0.254) -43.4%
+72h 0.136 has_dry_window_aifs (0.269) -49.2%
Verify history (8 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-07_141914 24 0.038
—		0.086
—		0.031
—		——
v2026-06-07_141914 9 0.076
—		0.305
—		0.027
—		——
v2026-05-31_205512 28 0.217
—		0.100
—		0.128
—		——
v2026-05-31_205512 24 0.253
—		0.126
—		0.157
—		——
v2026-05-31_205512 11 0.454
—		0.100
—		0.143
—		——
v2026-05-26_110313 18 0.001
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-26_110313 3 0.000
—		————
v2026-04-23_101310
v2026-04-27_193017		 11 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.001
—		——

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150645_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (7 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080822_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054515_phase3p		 8 0.008
—		0.000
—		0.002
—		——
v2026-06-07_142140_phase3p 9 0.077
—		0.060
—		0.029
—		——
v2026-05-31_205726_phase3p 28 0.124
—		0.133
—		0.174
—		——
v2026-05-31_205726_phase3p 24 0.142
—		0.160
—		0.212
—		——
v2026-05-31_205726_phase3p 11 0.206
—		0.123
—		0.127
—		——
v2026-05-26_110454_phase3p 18 0.000
—		0.000
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-26_110454_phase3p 3 0.000
—		————

Dry window — Princetown — 5-hour

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150645_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (1 run)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080822_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054515_phase3p		 8 0.025
—		0.000
—		0.008
—		——

Dry window — Princetown — 6-hour

Phase 3b · v2026-06-14_150524 Δ -0.006 vs prev train

53-feature LightGBM per-(station, window). Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.114 has_dry_window_mf (0.201) -43.6%
+48h 0.135 has_dry_window_mf (0.261) -48.3%
+72h 0.132 has_dry_window_jma (0.194) -31.9%
Verify history (8 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-07_142023 24 0.056
—		0.055
—		0.021
—		——
v2026-06-07_142023 9 0.137
—		0.192
—		0.109
—		——
v2026-05-31_205615 28 0.078
—		0.056
—		0.098
—		——
v2026-05-31_205615 24 0.078
—		0.065
—		0.107
—		——
v2026-05-31_205615 11 0.069
—		0.074
—		0.031
—		——
v2026-05-26_110401 18 0.033
—		0.007
—		0.000
—		——
v2026-05-26_110401 3 0.084
—		————
v2026-04-23_101336
v2026-04-27_193106		 11 0.007
—		0.001
—		0.002
—		——

Phase 3p · v2026-06-14_150645_phase3p Δ +0.000 vs prev train

Gaussian copula MC over Phase 3o's hourly P(wet) marginals. Single empirical Σ per station, fit on train-split observed daytime wet/dry binary sequences. Captures within-day wet/dry autocorrelation. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test Brier.

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+48h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
+72h 0.000 — (0.000 val) —
Verify history (7 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling Brier. Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC) Version N +24h+48h+72h+96h+120h
v2026-06-10_080822_phase3p
v2026-06-11_054515_phase3p		 8 0.044
—		0.001
—		0.020
—		——
v2026-06-07_142140_phase3p 9 0.271
—		0.316
—		0.391
—		——
v2026-05-31_205726_phase3p 28 0.060
—		0.070
—		0.117
—		——
v2026-05-31_205726_phase3p 24 0.057
—		0.057
—		0.118
—		——
v2026-05-31_205726_phase3p 11 0.056
—		0.035
—		0.015
—		——
v2026-05-26_110454_phase3p 18 0.001
—		0.002
—		0.002
—		——
v2026-05-26_110454_phase3p 3 0.000
—		————