WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Skill — dry window

Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.

2-hour dry window

Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
100%100%99% ✓
100%100%100% ✓
100%100%100% ✓
97%96%94% ✓
61%74%92% ✓
98%96%95% ✓
98%97%99% ✓

3-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
100%99%96% ✓
100%97%96% ✓
100%99%96% ✓
96%96%86% ✓
27%81%76% ✗
98%97%94% ✓
60%98%94% ✓
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
100%100%98% ✓
100%100%100% ✓
99%98%99% ✓
92%89%83% ✓
44%58%83% ✗
95%90%89% ✓
94%92%96% ✓

4-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
100%99%98% ✓
100%99%98% ✓
99%99%96% ✓
73%89%76% ✓
11%25%78% ✗
93%77%92% ✓
31%97%95% ✓
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
100%99%94% ✓
100%99%99% ✓
98%95%97% ✓
85%81%72% ✓
29%46%74% ✗
90%83%80% ✓
88%86%92% ✓

5-hour dry window

Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
99%98%90% ✓
99%98%99% ✓
96%88%94% ✓
76%64%65% ✓
19%34%64% ✗
75%67%67% ✓
79%78%86% ✗

6-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
97%96%97% ✓
97%96%97% ✓
97%89%93% ✓
62%74%60% ✗
15%32%45% ✗
82%67%93% ✓
35%90%90% ✗
Phase 3p (copula MC/3o)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
97%96%85% ✓
98%97%97% ✓
93%83%90% ✓
65%49%53% ✗
14%22%55% ✗
62%52%59% ✓
68%70%79% ✗