WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall

Skill — dry window

Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.

2-hour dry window

Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
100%—— ✓
92%81%— ✓
95%95%97% ✓
99%99%99% ✓
96%93%92% ✓

3-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
99%—— ✓
71%84%— ✓
97%97%96% ✓
99%97%96% ✓
97%94%95% ✓
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
98%—— ✓
80%64%— ✓
84%84%87% ✓
94%95%97% ✓
89%84%78% ✓

4-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
96%—— ✓
81%69%— ✓
82%90%96% ✓
88%92%96% ✓
81%91%91% ✓
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
94%—— ✓
67%51%— ✓
75%74%82% ✓
88%90%93% ✓
79%73%65% ✓

5-hour dry window

Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
90%—— ✓
52%40%— ✓
48%46%62% ✓
83%81%81% ✓
71%63%58% ✗

6-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
90%—— ✓
56%45%— ✗
82%79%61% ✓
87%87%73% ✓
71%80%78% ✗
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
83%—— ✓
44%29%— ✗
31%33%36% ✓
73%72%72% ✓
57%52%44% ✗