WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall

Temperature models

2b (lean) + 2c (rich). MAE °C, lower better. Δ vs best single NWP — negative = blend wins.

Temperature — Sennen Cove

Phase 2c · `v2026-08-02_153504_phase2c` Δ -0.003 vs prev train

Rich blender, 88 features (adds dew/RH/cloud/wind/pressure). Trained 2026-08-02. Metric: Test MAE (°C).

Lead	Blend	Best single	Δ vs best
+24h	0.382	temp_ecmwf (0.375)	+2.0%
+48h	0.398	temp_aifs (0.349)	+14.0%
+72h	0.421	temp_aifs (0.389)	+8.1%
+96h	0.454	temp_aifs (0.429)	+5.9%
+120h	0.547	temp_aifs (0.487)	+12.5%

Verify history (15 runs)

Mon + Thu rolling MAE (°C). Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.

Run (UTC)	Version	N	+12h	+24h	+48h	+72h	+96h	+120h
Mon 2026-08-03	`v2026-07-19_152422_phase2c` `v2026-07-26_153754_phase2c`	624	2.619 temp_aifs: 0.133	2.567 temp_aifs: 0.154	2.398 temp_ecmwf: 0.317	2.406 temp_ecmwf: 0.308	2.435 temp_aifs: 0.270	2.269 temp_aifs: 0.264
Thu 2026-07-30	`v2026-07-12_152714_phase2c` `v2026-07-19_152422_phase2c`	624	2.192 temp_aifs: 0.367	2.116 temp_ecmwf: 0.390	2.086 temp_ecmwf: 0.499	2.103 temp_ecmwf: 0.424	2.249 temp_aifs: 0.346	1.875 temp_aifs: 0.625
Mon 2026-07-27	`v2026-07-12_152714_phase2c` `v2026-07-19_152422_phase2c`	624	2.390 temp_aifs: 0.337	2.396 temp_aifs: 0.313	2.719 temp_aifs: 0.372	2.619 temp_aifs: 0.338	2.377 temp_aifs: 0.348	2.072 temp_aifs: 0.493
Thu 2026-07-23	`v2026-07-05_151842_phase2c` `v2026-07-12_152714_phase2c`	624	3.515 temp_aifs: 0.373	3.353 temp_aifs: 0.351	3.249 temp_aifs: 0.313	3.266 temp_aifs: 0.329	3.123 temp_aifs: 0.294	3.133 temp_ecmwf: 0.545
Mon 2026-07-20	`v2026-07-05_151842_phase2c` `v2026-07-12_152714_phase2c`	624	3.927 temp_ecmwf: 0.361	3.606 temp_aifs: 0.302	2.929 temp_aifs: 0.637	3.351 temp_aifs: 0.504	3.792 temp_aifs: 0.505	3.506 temp_ecmwf: 0.635
Thu 2026-07-16	`v2026-06-28_153524_phase2c` `v2026-07-05_151842_phase2c`	624	1.235 temp_ecmwf: 0.948	1.214 temp_ecmwf: 0.982	1.254 temp_ecmwf: 0.975	1.448 temp_aifs: 0.635	1.574 temp_aifs: 0.267	0.478 temp_aifs: 0.823
Mon 2026-07-13	`v2026-06-28_153524_phase2c` `v2026-07-05_151842_phase2c`	624	1.100 temp_ecmwf: 0.747	0.941 temp_mf: 0.600	1.055 temp_aifs: 0.586	0.719 temp_aifs: 0.610	0.348 temp_aifs: 0.696	0.342 temp_aifs: 0.880
Thu 2026-07-09	`v2026-06-21_152422_phase2c` `v2026-06-28_153524_phase2c`	624	1.591 temp_ecmwf: 0.180	1.509 temp_ecmwf: 0.208	1.479 temp_ecmwf: 0.215	1.106 temp_aifs: 0.385	0.757 temp_ecmwf: 0.204	1.018 temp_ecmwf: 0.551
Mon 2026-07-06	`v2026-06-21_152422_phase2c` `v2026-06-28_153524_phase2c`	624	1.801 temp_aifs: 0.101	1.797 temp_aifs: 0.071	2.132 temp_aifs: 0.621	2.187 temp_ecmwf: 0.480	1.807 temp_ecmwf: 0.428	1.409 temp_ecmwf: 0.536
Thu 2026-07-02	`v2026-06-15_090237_phase2c` `v2026-06-21_152422_phase2c`	600	2.481 temp_aifs: 0.510	2.539 temp_aifs: 0.465	2.590 temp_aifs: 0.950	3.559 temp_aifs: 0.767	4.026 temp_aifs: 0.783	2.159 temp_ecmwf: 1.008
Mon 2026-06-29	`v2026-06-15_090237_phase2c` `v2026-06-21_152422_phase2c`	600	2.122 temp_aifs: 0.430	2.267 temp_ecmwf: 0.433	1.330 temp_aifs: 0.480	1.083 temp_aifs: 0.438	1.200 temp_aifs: 0.370	1.323 temp_ecmwf: 0.923
Thu 2026-06-25	`v2026-06-07_145248_phase2c` `v2026-06-14_153341_phase2c` `v2026-06-15_090237_phase2c`	720	0.858 temp_aifs: 0.349	0.828 temp_aifs: 0.349	0.878 temp_aifs: 0.453	0.473 temp_aifs: 0.443	0.520 temp_aifs: 0.383	0.414 temp_aifs: 0.432
Mon 2026-06-22	`v2026-06-07_145248_phase2c` `v2026-06-14_153341_phase2c` `v2026-06-15_090237_phase2c`	720	0.961 temp_ecmwf: 0.086	0.989 temp_ecmwf: 0.242	0.551 temp_aifs: 0.348	0.446 temp_aifs: 0.416	0.443 temp_aifs: 0.403	0.380 temp_aifs: 0.435
Thu 2026-06-18	`v2026-06-07_145248_phase2c`	384	—	0.507 temp_ecmwf: 0.223	0.450 temp_ecmwf: 0.275	0.224 temp_ecmwf: 0.377	0.276 temp_mf: 0.400	—
Mon 2026-06-15	`v2026-06-07_145248_phase2c`	48	—	0.588 temp_aifs: 0.092	—	—	—	—

By actual NWP forecast lead (6h buckets)

Same data grouped by ValidTime − freshest contributing NWP cycle (6h buckets) instead of trained-lead label. Reveals MAE structure within a trained bucket once predict spread to hourly outputs (2026-05-04+). Buckets start at the trained lead — earlier figures measured from the cron-fire time, which made offset-day models look like sub-lead forecasts.

Run (UTC)	12-17h	18-23h	24-29h	30-35h	36-41h	42-47h	48-53h	54-59h	60-65h	66-71h	72-77h	78-83h	84-89h	90-95h	96-101h	102-107h	108-113h	114-119h	120-125h	126-131h	132-137h	138-143h	144-149h
Mon 2026-08-03	2.625	2.453	2.567	2.351	2.362	2.237	2.348	2.489	2.581	2.484	2.334	2.577	2.614	2.515	2.406	2.513	2.523	2.439	2.249	2.272	2.386	2.372	—
Thu 2026-07-30	2.193	2.151	2.085	2.217	2.223	2.018	1.992	2.278	2.483	2.318	1.905	2.689	2.873	2.715	2.219	2.581	2.091	1.998	1.856	1.943	1.909	1.858	—
Mon 2026-07-27	2.393	2.291	2.399	2.366	2.909	2.802	2.691	2.810	2.791	2.681	2.637	2.640	2.498	2.503	2.399	2.373	2.273	2.231	2.100	2.049	1.945	1.933	—
Thu 2026-07-23	3.523	3.316	3.337	3.365	3.466	3.348	3.198	3.385	3.433	3.288	3.291	3.250	3.049	3.179	3.121	3.142	4.063	3.872	3.055	3.268	3.416	3.296	1.695
Mon 2026-07-20	3.945	3.286	3.643	3.195	2.895	2.792	2.764	3.248	3.446	3.338	3.135	3.762	4.040	3.936	3.560	4.283	4.539	4.296	3.384	3.726	3.974	3.862	1.695
Thu 2026-07-16	1.224	1.499	1.216	1.230	1.162	1.229	1.188	1.391	1.474	1.545	1.299	1.793	2.087	2.235	1.496	2.429	0.713	0.760	0.403	0.560	0.669	0.696	1.695
Mon 2026-07-13	1.067	2.280	0.908	1.302	1.011	0.912	1.064	0.998	0.993	1.103	0.745	0.687	0.691	0.641	0.319	0.360	0.470	0.523	0.319	0.397	0.384	0.438	—
Thu 2026-07-09	1.597	1.454	1.555	1.416	1.386	1.339	1.547	1.333	1.249	1.313	1.195	0.951	0.780	0.527	0.757	1.341	1.283	1.128	1.077	0.945	0.855	0.756	—
Mon 2026-07-06	1.801	1.782	1.797	2.326	2.264	2.209	2.073	2.276	2.294	2.136	2.194	2.214	2.187	1.977	1.871	1.668	1.684	1.476	1.397	1.482	1.427	1.287	—
Thu 2026-07-02	2.478	2.569	2.499	2.678	2.560	2.677	2.383	3.018	3.207	3.509	3.392	4.000	4.196	4.156	4.026	2.190	2.302	2.623	1.986	2.427	2.616	2.904	—
Mon 2026-06-29	2.120	2.194	2.267	1.162	1.121	1.218	1.275	1.499	1.434	1.323	1.008	1.202	1.297	1.452	1.097	1.379	1.482	1.746	1.139	1.636	1.860	2.419	—
Thu 2026-06-25	0.865	0.669	0.875	0.736	0.684	0.641	0.917	0.806	0.738	0.625	0.502	0.362	0.318	0.427	0.520	0.460	0.366	0.393	0.407	0.387	0.382	0.701	—
Mon 2026-06-22	0.961	1.021	0.989	0.561	0.626	0.453	0.544	0.563	0.547	0.615	0.402	0.487	0.589	0.590	0.449	0.471	0.374	0.434	0.382	0.361	0.312	0.646	—
Thu 2026-06-18	—	—	0.506	0.460	0.561	0.612	0.479	0.407	0.304	0.481	0.211	0.287	0.241	0.220	0.254	0.520	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Mon 2026-06-15	—	—	0.582	0.656	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Phase 2b · `v2026-08-02_153440` Δ -0.003 vs prev train

Lean blender, 13 features. Trained 2026-08-02. Metric: Test MAE (°C).

Lead	Blend	Best single	Δ vs best
+24h	0.391	temp_ecmwf (0.375)	+4.3%
+48h	0.391	temp_aifs (0.349)	+12.2%
+72h	0.403	temp_aifs (0.389)	+3.5%
+96h	0.447	temp_aifs (0.429)	+4.2%
+120h	0.524	temp_aifs (0.487)	+7.7%

Verify history (15 runs)

Run (UTC)	Version	N	+24h	+48h	+72h	+96h	+120h
Mon 2026-08-03	`v2026-07-19_152405` `v2026-07-26_153731`	624	2.363 temp_aifs: 0.154	1.730 temp_ecmwf: 0.317	1.702 temp_ecmwf: 0.308	2.049 temp_aifs: 0.270	1.511 temp_aifs: 0.264
Thu 2026-07-30	`v2026-07-12_152651` `v2026-07-19_152405`	624	2.103 temp_ecmwf: 0.390	1.486 temp_ecmwf: 0.499	1.407 temp_ecmwf: 0.424	1.957 temp_aifs: 0.346	0.993 temp_aifs: 0.625
Mon 2026-07-27	`v2026-07-12_152651` `v2026-07-19_152405`	624	2.409 temp_aifs: 0.313	2.318 temp_aifs: 0.372	1.851 temp_aifs: 0.338	2.242 temp_aifs: 0.348	1.123 temp_aifs: 0.493
Thu 2026-07-23	`v2026-07-05_151819` `v2026-07-12_152651`	624	3.034 temp_aifs: 0.351	2.835 temp_aifs: 0.313	2.455 temp_aifs: 0.329	2.907 temp_aifs: 0.294	2.656 temp_ecmwf: 0.545
Mon 2026-07-20	`v2026-07-05_151819` `v2026-07-12_152651`	624	3.312 temp_aifs: 0.302	2.509 temp_aifs: 0.637	2.536 temp_aifs: 0.504	3.656 temp_aifs: 0.505	3.054 temp_ecmwf: 0.635
Thu 2026-07-16	`v2026-06-28_153504` `v2026-07-05_151819`	624	1.143 temp_ecmwf: 0.982	0.768 temp_ecmwf: 0.975	0.624 temp_aifs: 0.635	1.493 temp_aifs: 0.267	0.436 temp_aifs: 0.823
Mon 2026-07-13	`v2026-06-28_153504` `v2026-07-05_151819`	624	0.831 temp_mf: 0.600	0.619 temp_aifs: 0.586	0.397 temp_aifs: 0.610	0.344 temp_aifs: 0.696	0.472 temp_aifs: 0.880
Thu 2026-07-09	`v2026-06-21_152403` `v2026-06-28_153504`	624	1.440 temp_ecmwf: 0.208	1.043 temp_ecmwf: 0.215	0.491 temp_aifs: 0.385	0.728 temp_ecmwf: 0.204	0.811 temp_ecmwf: 0.551
Mon 2026-07-06	`v2026-06-21_152403` `v2026-06-28_153504`	624	1.618 temp_aifs: 0.071	1.814 temp_aifs: 0.621	1.490 temp_ecmwf: 0.480	1.652 temp_ecmwf: 0.428	1.168 temp_ecmwf: 0.536
Thu 2026-07-02	`v2026-06-14_153323` `v2026-06-21_152403`	648	2.585 temp_aifs: 0.465	2.274 temp_aifs: 0.950	2.889 temp_aifs: 0.767	3.792 temp_aifs: 0.783	1.628 temp_ecmwf: 0.961
Mon 2026-06-29	`v2026-06-14_153323` `v2026-06-21_152403`	648	2.247 temp_ecmwf: 0.433	0.863 temp_aifs: 0.462	0.619 temp_aifs: 0.438	1.003 temp_aifs: 0.370	0.902 temp_ecmwf: 0.840
Thu 2026-06-25	`v2026-06-07_145236` `v2026-06-14_153323`	720	0.704 temp_aifs: 0.335	0.520 temp_aifs: 0.406	0.234 temp_aifs: 0.445	0.400 temp_aifs: 0.383	0.438 temp_aifs: 0.432
Mon 2026-06-22	`v2026-06-07_145236` `v2026-06-14_153323`	720	0.809 temp_ecmwf: 0.242	0.339 temp_aifs: 0.348	0.381 temp_aifs: 0.416	0.468 temp_aifs: 0.403	0.430 temp_aifs: 0.435
Thu 2026-06-18	`v2026-06-07_145236`	384	0.313 temp_ecmwf: 0.223	0.205 temp_ecmwf: 0.275	0.230 temp_ecmwf: 0.377	0.207 temp_mf: 0.400	—
Mon 2026-06-15	`v2026-06-07_145236`	48	0.403 temp_aifs: 0.092	—	—	—	—

By actual NWP forecast lead (6h buckets)

Run (UTC)	24-29h	30-35h	36-41h	42-47h	48-53h	54-59h	60-65h	66-71h	72-77h	78-83h	84-89h	90-95h	96-101h	102-107h	108-113h	114-119h	120-125h	126-131h	132-137h	138-143h	144-149h
Mon 2026-08-03	2.363	2.355	2.362	2.193	1.691	1.810	1.871	1.748	1.643	1.858	1.868	1.737	2.031	2.126	2.088	1.955	1.506	1.509	1.553	1.524	—
Thu 2026-07-30	2.064	2.243	2.236	1.959	1.401	1.638	1.872	1.712	1.232	1.927	2.104	1.886	1.930	2.263	1.944	1.790	0.994	1.028	0.956	0.908	—
Mon 2026-07-27	2.412	2.375	2.514	2.322	2.299	2.408	2.348	2.203	1.871	1.879	1.724	1.681	2.263	2.257	2.135	2.031	1.159	1.090	0.952	0.980	—
Thu 2026-07-23	3.036	3.058	3.076	2.791	2.807	2.929	2.939	2.772	2.492	2.407	2.218	2.270	2.910	2.866	3.865	3.631	2.595	2.759	2.884	2.774	1.274
Mon 2026-07-20	3.358	2.802	3.065	2.952	2.344	2.830	3.024	2.912	2.333	2.947	3.173	3.013	3.432	4.139	4.373	4.122	2.941	3.264	3.495	3.328	1.274
Thu 2026-07-16	1.141	1.157	1.113	1.197	0.705	0.891	0.972	1.087	0.503	0.949	1.077	1.187	1.432	2.172	0.658	0.714	0.373	0.532	0.591	0.551	1.274
Mon 2026-07-13	0.803	1.141	0.918	0.824	0.639	0.535	0.539	0.673	0.402	0.397	0.418	0.396	0.313	0.375	0.465	0.493	0.414	0.659	0.572	0.551	—
Thu 2026-07-09	1.484	1.354	1.311	1.285	1.109	0.916	0.783	0.903	0.569	0.347	0.148	0.159	0.728	1.227	1.124	0.963	0.847	0.769	0.701	0.654	—
Mon 2026-07-06	1.618	2.294	2.229	2.123	1.765	1.935	1.957	1.792	1.506	1.500	1.458	1.271	1.709	1.546	1.517	1.357	1.161	1.226	1.162	1.075	—
Thu 2026-07-02	2.539	2.721	2.639	2.756	2.083	2.641	2.857	3.122	2.758	3.173	3.400	3.493	3.791	3.815	2.069	2.311	1.528	1.837	1.817	1.983	—
Mon 2026-06-29	2.268	1.775	0.917	0.948	0.831	0.992	0.912	0.783	0.574	0.706	0.738	0.766	0.902	1.190	1.243	1.480	0.807	1.103	1.113	1.336	—
Thu 2026-06-25	0.743	0.634	0.590	0.547	0.572	0.417	0.351	0.336	0.268	0.156	0.106	0.096	0.400	0.457	0.369	0.414	0.451	0.388	0.376	0.601	—
Mon 2026-06-22	0.809	0.397	0.404	0.339	0.337	0.354	0.324	0.348	0.368	0.362	0.477	0.400	0.481	0.469	0.385	0.464	0.476	0.315	0.283	0.501	—
Thu 2026-06-18	0.325	0.259	0.307	0.377	0.209	0.189	0.192	0.240	0.188	0.310	0.458	0.436	0.196	0.326	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Mon 2026-06-15	0.400	0.438	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—