WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall

Wind models

10 m wind speed — ERA5-truth `wind` + Dunkeswell-truth `wind_speed_lgb`; plus gust and direction (`wind_mvn`). MAE — m/s for speed/gust, ° for direction; lower better. Δ vs best single NWP — negative = blend wins.

10 m wind speed — Sennen Cove

Phase wind · v2026-06-14_153855

10 m wind-speed LightGBM blender, ERA5 WindSpeed10m truth. Per-NWP speed + direction (sin/cos) + ensemble spread + calendar. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test MAE (m/s).

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 0.638 ecmwf_aifs025_single (0.691) -7.7%
+48h 0.847 ecmwf_aifs025_single (0.864) -2.0%
+72h 1.153 ecmwf_aifs025_single (1.123) +2.7%
Verify history (no runs yet)

No verify rows yet for phase wind. Next cycle: Mon/Thu 09:30 UTC, then 5d ERA5 latency.

Wind direction — Sennen Cove

Phase wind_mvn · v2026-06-14_132844_wind_mvn

PyTorch MLP predicting a bivariate normal over the (u, v) wind vector, trained on Dunkeswell SYNOP truth. Direction = atan2(−μ_u, −μ_v); also emits a calibrated direction confidence interval. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test MAE (°).

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 9.730 ecmwf_ifs025 (10.554) -7.8%
+48h 12.865 ecmwf_ifs025 (14.176) -9.2%
+72h 16.816 ecmwf_ifs025 (19.494) -13.7%
Verify history (no runs yet)

No verify rows yet for phase wind_mvn. Next cycle: Mon/Thu 09:30 UTC, then 5d ERA5 latency.

10 m wind gust — Sennen Cove

Phase wind_gust_lgb · v2026-06-14_153930_wind_gust_lgb

10 m wind-gust LightGBM blender, ERA5 WindGusts10m truth. Per-NWP gust + gust/speed ratio + ratio spread over the gust-publishing NWPs. Trained 2026-06-14. Metric: Test MAE (m/s).

Lead Blend Best single Δ vs best
+24h 1.112 gem_seamless (1.424) -21.9%
+48h 1.365 gem_seamless (1.708) -20.1%
+72h 1.733 gem_seamless (2.077) -16.6%
Verify history (no runs yet)

No verify rows yet for phase wind_gust_lgb. Next cycle: Mon/Thu 09:30 UTC, then 5d ERA5 latency.