WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall

Skill — wind

Rolling MAE for blended wind speed (scored vs ERA5 by element-verify) and circular MAE for direction (wind_mvn, vs Dunkeswell SYNOP).

Speed MAE (rolling, ERA5 truth)

Lead +24h

Lead +48h

Lead +72h

Direction MAE (circular, rolling, Dunkeswell truth)

Wind direction MAE (°) — rolling 30-day, circular

Direction verification arrives once wind_mvn predictions land on R2 (first Sunday retrain after 2026-05-31). Circular MAE is min(|err|, 360 - |err|) averaged over the rolling window.