WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall

Skill — dry window

Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.

2-hour dry window

Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
90%96%91% ✓
100%100%99% ✓
100%99%99% ✓
100%100%100% ✓
100%100%100% ✓
100%100%100% ✓
100%100%98% ✓

3-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
78%91%79% ✓
99%99%98% ✓
99%99%98% ✓
97%97%98% ✓
99%99%98% ✓
98%99%98% ✓
98%99%98% ✓
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
76%87%77% ✓
100%99%96% ✓
100%98%95% ✓
99%98%98% ✓
100%100%98% ✓
100%99%98% ✓
99%100%93% ✓

4-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
37%86%77% ✓
98%99%98% ✓
98%99%98% ✓
96%99%98% ✓
98%99%98% ✓
97%99%98% ✓
99%98%96% ✓
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
60%77%62% ✓
98%96%92% ✓
99%93%88% ✓
96%95%94% ✓
99%99%94% ✓
99%98%94% ✓
98%98%85% ✓

5-hour dry window

Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
47%69%52% ✓
96%92%85% ✓
97%88%79% ✓
93%87%89% ✓
97%97%89% ✓
97%95%90% ✓
96%96%78% ✓

6-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
45%40%63% ✓
96%91%93% ✓
92%89%83% ✓
83%92%92% ✓
96%96%93% ✓
96%94%94% ✓
87%97%86% ✓
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
37%56%41% ✓
91%87%78% ✓
95%79%69% ✓
84%81%83% ✓
94%95%82% ✓
94%92%81% ✓
93%93%68% ✓