WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall
Skill — dry window
Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.
2-hour dry window
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 98% | ✓ |
3-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 97% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 97% | 97% | ✓ |
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 99% | 97% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 99% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 99% | 99% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 100% | 99% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 97% | 98% | 94% | ✓ |
4-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98% | 97% | 99% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 97% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 97% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 97% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 97% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 97% | 98% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 97% | 98% | ✓ |
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98% | 98% | 94% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 97% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 94% | 96% | 89% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 98% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 97% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 98% | 98% | 96% | ✓ | |
| 92% | 94% | 88% | ✓ |
5-hour dry window
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 95% | 88% | ✓ | |
| 91% | 93% | 92% | ✓ | |
| 85% | 89% | 80% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 95% | 91% | ✓ | |
| 95% | 94% | 91% | ✓ | |
| 96% | 95% | 92% | ✓ | |
| 87% | 88% | 82% | ✓ |
6-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 93% | 92% | ✓ | |
| 89% | 94% | 91% | ✓ | |
| 82% | 68% | 90% | ✓ | |
| 88% | 93% | 90% | ✓ | |
| 88% | 92% | 90% | ✓ | |
| 88% | 93% | 90% | ✓ | |
| 85% | 92% | 92% | ✓ |
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 91% | 81% | ✓ | |
| 87% | 89% | 86% | ✓ | |
| 78% | 84% | 71% | ✓ | |
| 92% | 91% | 86% | ✓ | |
| 92% | 90% | 86% | ✓ | |
| 93% | 91% | 87% | ✓ | |
| 79% | 83% | 74% | ✓ |