WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall

Skill — dry window

Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.

2-hour dry window

Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
100%—— ✓
90%84%— ✓
98%95%97% ✓
100%98%99% ✓
97%94%91% ✓

3-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
99%—— ✓
93%93%— ✓
95%88%96% ✓
94%88%97% ✓
90%88%93% ✗
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
100%—— ✓
77%69%— ✓
91%87%90% ✓
97%94%97% ✓
91%85%77% ✗

4-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
98%—— ✓
91%70%— ✓
93%87%99% ✓
95%89%99% ✓
92%89%94% ✗
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
99%—— ✓
62%55%— ✓
84%77%86% ✓
94%89%94% ✓
81%75%63% ✗

5-hour dry window

Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
97%—— ✓
41%42%— ✓
46%59%74% ✓
89%79%86% ✓
72%66%55% ✗

6-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
99%—— ✓
56%45%— ✓
96%84%81% ✓
99%96%81% ✓
90%95%87% ✗
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
94%—— ✓
33%32%— ✓
32%48%57% ✓
83%65%76% ✓
46%53%41% ✗