WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall
Skill — dry window
Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.
2-hour dry window
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 99% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 99% | — | |
| 99% | 100% | 96% | ✓ |
3-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | 98% | 98% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 98% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 98% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 98% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 98% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 98% | — | |
| 99% | 97% | 98% | ✓ |
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 99% | 100% | 97% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 99% | 99% | 97% | — | |
| 95% | 98% | 90% | ✓ |
4-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98% | 98% | 99% | — | |
| 98% | 98% | 99% | — | |
| 98% | 98% | 99% | — | |
| 98% | 98% | 99% | — | |
| 98% | 98% | 99% | — | |
| 98% | 98% | 99% | — | |
| 97% | 96% | 97% | ✓ |
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98% | 99% | 99% | — | |
| 96% | 99% | 91% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 99% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 99% | — | |
| 100% | 99% | 99% | — | |
| 98% | 97% | 93% | — | |
| 88% | 95% | 81% | ✓ |
5-hour dry window
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 97% | 97% | — | |
| 84% | 92% | 82% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 97% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 97% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 97% | — | |
| 95% | 93% | 88% | — | |
| 74% | 88% | 71% | ✓ |
6-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 94% | 96% | — | |
| 87% | 87% | 94% | — | |
| 95% | 94% | 94% | — | |
| 95% | 94% | 94% | — | |
| 95% | 94% | 94% | — | |
| 90% | 94% | 96% | — | |
| 62% | 83% | 56% | ✓ |
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 94% | 95% | — | |
| 75% | 88% | 73% | — | |
| 97% | 97% | 95% | — | |
| 98% | 97% | 95% | — | |
| 97% | 95% | 95% | — | |
| 90% | 87% | 80% | — | |
| 62% | 81% | 61% | ✓ |