WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall
Skill — dry window
Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.
2-hour dry window
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98% | 98% | 97% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 98% | ✓ |
3-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97% | 97% | 95% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 99% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 98% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 98% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 98% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 98% | ✓ |
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 94% | 89% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 99% | — | |
| 100% | 98% | 98% | — | |
| 99% | 99% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 93% | ✓ |
4-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97% | 94% | 90% | — | |
| 98% | 98% | 99% | — | |
| 98% | 98% | 99% | — | |
| 98% | 97% | 99% | — | |
| 98% | 98% | 99% | — | |
| 98% | 98% | 99% | — | |
| 98% | 98% | 98% | ✓ |
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 88% | 79% | — | |
| 100% | 99% | 98% | — | |
| 100% | 95% | 95% | — | |
| 98% | 96% | 99% | — | |
| 100% | 100% | 99% | — | |
| 100% | 99% | 98% | — | |
| 99% | 99% | 86% | ✓ |
5-hour dry window
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 80% | 68% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 94% | — | |
| 99% | 90% | 90% | — | |
| 95% | 91% | 96% | — | |
| 99% | 98% | 96% | — | |
| 99% | 95% | 96% | — | |
| 98% | 97% | 80% | ✓ |
6-hour dry window
Phase 3b (lean)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39% | 66% | 61% | — | |
| 93% | 91% | 90% | — | |
| 94% | 84% | 93% | — | |
| 93% | 95% | 96% | — | |
| 95% | 95% | 96% | — | |
| 95% | 95% | 96% | — | |
| 83% | 95% | 89% | ✓ |
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
| Target date (UTC) | +24h | +48h | +72h | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 70% | 56% | — | |
| 95% | 96% | 91% | — | |
| 98% | 80% | 81% | — | |
| 89% | 83% | 93% | — | |
| 97% | 97% | 92% | — | |
| 96% | 91% | 88% | — | |
| 97% | 94% | 65% | ✓ |