WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall

Skill — dry window

Predicted vs observed dry-block verdict per (day × window). Observed blank for dates past the last full gauge day.

2-hour dry window

Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
100%—— ✓
83%71%— ✓
97%90%95% ✓
99%99%99% ✓
93%91%90% ✓

3-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
99%—— ✓
88%70%— ✓
88%87%97% ✓
92%82%98% ✓
89%82%88% ✓
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
98%—— ✓
66%52%— ✓
89%75%84% ✓
96%95%97% ✓
85%81%74% ✓

4-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
97%—— ✓
69%58%— ✓
76%63%82% ✓
97%84%89% ✓
72%84%75% ✗
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
96%—— ✓
53%39%— ✓
81%61%79% ✓
91%91%93% ✓
70%70%62% ✗

5-hour dry window

Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
92%—— ✓
36%28%— ✓
45%39%53% ✓
85%81%83% ✓
60%61%55% ✗

6-hour dry window

Phase 3b (lean)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
94%—— ✓
32%13%— ✓
68%44%60% ✓
82%94%60% ✓
71%48%62% ✗
Phase 3q (copula MC/3c)
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
87%—— ✓
30%21%— ✓
30%29%40% ✓
79%73%76% ✓
45%49%41% ✗