WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Membury, East Devon

Rain +96h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon

Chards Snowdon Hill

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct	6%	2% at 04Z
Wed 07 Oct	14%	2% at 23Z
Thu 08 Oct	5%	1% at 14Z
Fri 09 Oct	20%	6% at 23Z
Sat 10 Oct	6%	3% at 13Z
Sun 11 Oct	22%	9% at 21Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
10-07 00Z	15%	33%
10-07 01Z	20%	50%
10-07 02Z	22%	50%
10-07 03Z	24%	50%
10-07 04Z	38%	50%
10-07 05Z	36%	50%
10-07 06Z	25%	67%
10-07 07Z	13%	17%
10-07 08Z	13%	33%
10-07 09Z	33%	43%
10-07 10Z	12%	29%
10-07 11Z	6%	14%
10-07 12Z	26%	43%
10-07 13Z	6%	14%
10-07 14Z	4%	14%
10-07 15Z	6%	17%
10-07 16Z	6%	17%
10-07 17Z	6%	17%
10-07 18Z	5%	17%
10-07 19Z	4%	0%
10-07 20Z	4%	0%
10-07 21Z	4%	0%
10-07 22Z	3%	0%
10-07 23Z	2%	0%
10-08 00Z	3%	0%
10-08 01Z	6%	17%
10-08 02Z	3%	0%
10-08 03Z	3%	0%
10-08 04Z	3%	0%
10-08 05Z	3%	0%
10-08 06Z	3%	0%
10-08 07Z	4%	0%
10-08 08Z	3%	0%
10-08 09Z	1%	0%
10-08 10Z	2%	0%
10-08 11Z	1%	0%
10-08 12Z	1%	0%
10-08 13Z	1%	0%
10-08 14Z	1%	0%
10-08 15Z	3%	0%
10-08 16Z	4%	17%
10-08 17Z	4%	17%
10-08 18Z	3%	17%
10-08 19Z	14%	33%
10-08 20Z	16%	33%
10-08 21Z	12%	50%
10-08 22Z	17%	67%
10-08 23Z	19%	67%
10-09 00Z	15%	50%
10-09 01Z	25%	83%
10-09 02Z	28%	67%
10-09 03Z	31%	67%
10-09 04Z	35%	67%
10-09 05Z	35%	67%
10-09 06Z	36%	67%
10-09 07Z	12%	33%
10-09 08Z	12%	33%
10-09 09Z	10%	29%
10-09 10Z	16%	43%
10-09 11Z	17%	43%
10-09 12Z	31%	57%
10-09 13Z	14%	29%
10-09 14Z	14%	29%
10-09 15Z	23%	33%
10-09 16Z	27%	67%
10-09 17Z	24%	67%
10-09 18Z	23%	50%
10-09 19Z	10%	17%
10-09 20Z	13%	33%
10-09 21Z	18%	17%
10-09 22Z	6%	0%
10-09 23Z	6%	0%
10-10 00Z	3%	0%
10-10 01Z	4%	0%
10-10 02Z	4%	0%
10-10 03Z	4%	0%
10-10 04Z	4%	0%
10-10 05Z	4%	0%
10-10 06Z	4%	0%
10-10 07Z	12%	33%
10-10 08Z	5%	0%
10-10 09Z	3%	0%
10-10 10Z	5%	14%
10-10 11Z	5%	14%
10-10 12Z	6%	14%
10-10 13Z	3%	0%
10-10 14Z	3%	0%
10-10 15Z	3%	0%
10-10 16Z	3%	0%
10-10 17Z	4%	0%
10-10 18Z	4%	0%
10-10 19Z	9%	17%
10-10 20Z	14%	33%
10-10 21Z	13%	33%
10-10 22Z	13%	33%
10-10 23Z	16%	33%
10-11 00Z	11%	33%
10-11 01Z	25%	33%
10-11 02Z	24%	17%
10-11 03Z	17%	17%
10-11 04Z	17%	17%
10-11 05Z	19%	17%
10-11 06Z	18%	17%
10-11 07Z	23%	33%
10-11 08Z	24%	33%
10-11 09Z	28%	33%
10-11 10Z	27%	33%
10-11 11Z	27%	33%
10-11 12Z	26%	33%
10-11 13Z	25%	33%
10-11 14Z	26%	33%
10-11 15Z	28%	33%
10-11 16Z	29%	33%
10-11 17Z	32%	33%
10-11 18Z	31%	33%
10-11 19Z	19%	33%
10-11 20Z	18%	33%
10-11 21Z	9%	33%
10-11 22Z	15%	50%
10-11 23Z	14%	50%

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

6.0 mm total (sum of hourly medians) · wettest hour 04Z: 0.2 mm/h (80% band 0.0–1.2) · 49% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)

Valid time	P≥0.1	P≥1	P≥5	P≥10
10-07 04Z	36%	12%	1%	0%
10-07 05Z	34%	11%	1%	0%
10-07 06Z	36%	12%	1%	0%
10-07 07Z	16%	2%	0%	0%
10-07 08Z	24%	5%	0%	0%
10-07 09Z	24%	4%	0%	0%
10-07 10Z	16%	3%	0%	0%
10-07 11Z	18%	4%	0%	0%
10-07 12Z	24%	5%	0%	0%
10-07 13Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 14Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 15Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 16Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 17Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 18Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 19Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 20Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 21Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 22Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 23Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 00Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 01Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 02Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 03Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 04Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 05Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 06Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 07Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 08Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 09Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 10Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 11Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 12Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 13Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 14Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 15Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 16Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 17Z	2%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 18Z	2%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 19Z	21%	6%	0%	0%
10-08 20Z	20%	6%	0%	0%
10-08 21Z	21%	8%	1%	0%
10-08 22Z	24%	8%	0%	0%
10-08 23Z	21%	8%	1%	0%
10-09 00Z	18%	8%	1%	0%
10-09 01Z	26%	9%	1%	0%
10-09 02Z	31%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 03Z	32%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 04Z	46%	8%	0%	0%
10-09 05Z	49%	8%	0%	0%
10-09 06Z	44%	7%	0%	0%
10-09 07Z	21%	3%	0%	0%
10-09 08Z	18%	3%	0%	0%
10-09 09Z	18%	3%	0%	0%
10-09 10Z	24%	4%	0%	0%
10-09 11Z	28%	6%	0%	0%
10-09 12Z	28%	7%	0%	0%
10-09 13Z	25%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 14Z	25%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 15Z	23%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 16Z	41%	9%	0%	0%
10-09 17Z	37%	8%	0%	0%
10-09 18Z	34%	7%	0%	0%
10-09 19Z	19%	6%	0%	0%
10-09 20Z	16%	6%	1%	0%
10-09 21Z	18%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 22Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-09 23Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 00Z	4%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 01Z	4%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 02Z	4%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 03Z	4%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 04Z	4%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 05Z	5%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 06Z	4%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 07Z	10%	2%	0%	0%
10-10 08Z	4%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 09Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 10Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 11Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 12Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 13Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 14Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 15Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 16Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 17Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 18Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 19Z	13%	3%	0%	0%
10-10 20Z	15%	3%	0%	0%
10-10 21Z	15%	3%	0%	0%
10-10 22Z	15%	3%	0%	0%
10-10 23Z	16%	3%	0%	0%

Goren

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct	9%	3% at 05Z
Wed 07 Oct	16%	5% at 19Z
Thu 08 Oct	6%	2% at 10Z
Fri 09 Oct	22%	11% at 23Z
Sat 10 Oct	6%	2% at 14Z
Sun 11 Oct	18%	14% at 21Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
10-07 00Z	20%	33%
10-07 01Z	19%	50%
10-07 02Z	18%	50%
10-07 03Z	20%	50%
10-07 04Z	29%	50%
10-07 05Z	31%	50%
10-07 06Z	21%	67%
10-07 07Z	19%	17%
10-07 08Z	27%	33%
10-07 09Z	25%	43%
10-07 10Z	22%	29%
10-07 11Z	7%	14%
10-07 12Z	28%	43%
10-07 13Z	8%	14%
10-07 14Z	7%	14%
10-07 15Z	11%	17%
10-07 16Z	12%	17%
10-07 17Z	12%	17%
10-07 18Z	11%	17%
10-07 19Z	5%	0%
10-07 20Z	6%	0%
10-07 21Z	8%	0%
10-07 22Z	7%	0%
10-07 23Z	7%	0%
10-08 00Z	5%	0%
10-08 01Z	10%	17%
10-08 02Z	5%	0%
10-08 03Z	5%	0%
10-08 04Z	5%	0%
10-08 05Z	4%	0%
10-08 06Z	5%	0%
10-08 07Z	5%	0%
10-08 08Z	4%	0%
10-08 09Z	2%	0%
10-08 10Z	2%	0%
10-08 11Z	2%	0%
10-08 12Z	2%	0%
10-08 13Z	2%	0%
10-08 14Z	2%	0%
10-08 15Z	3%	0%
10-08 16Z	4%	17%
10-08 17Z	4%	17%
10-08 18Z	4%	17%
10-08 19Z	10%	33%
10-08 20Z	15%	33%
10-08 21Z	11%	50%
10-08 22Z	12%	67%
10-08 23Z	13%	67%
10-09 00Z	20%	50%
10-09 01Z	26%	83%
10-09 02Z	32%	67%
10-09 03Z	32%	67%
10-09 04Z	36%	67%
10-09 05Z	36%	67%
10-09 06Z	38%	67%
10-09 07Z	22%	33%
10-09 08Z	15%	33%
10-09 09Z	16%	29%
10-09 10Z	18%	43%
10-09 11Z	16%	43%
10-09 12Z	22%	57%
10-09 13Z	15%	29%
10-09 14Z	15%	29%
10-09 15Z	17%	33%
10-09 16Z	31%	67%
10-09 17Z	28%	67%
10-09 18Z	23%	50%
10-09 19Z	13%	17%
10-09 20Z	20%	33%
10-09 21Z	15%	17%
10-09 22Z	12%	0%
10-09 23Z	11%	0%
10-10 00Z	4%	0%
10-10 01Z	4%	0%
10-10 02Z	4%	0%
10-10 03Z	4%	0%
10-10 04Z	4%	0%
10-10 05Z	4%	0%
10-10 06Z	4%	0%
10-10 07Z	11%	33%
10-10 08Z	4%	0%
10-10 09Z	2%	0%
10-10 10Z	4%	14%
10-10 11Z	4%	14%
10-10 12Z	4%	14%
10-10 13Z	2%	0%
10-10 14Z	2%	0%
10-10 15Z	5%	0%
10-10 16Z	4%	0%
10-10 17Z	4%	0%
10-10 18Z	4%	0%
10-10 19Z	13%	17%
10-10 20Z	22%	33%
10-10 21Z	14%	33%
10-10 22Z	14%	33%
10-10 23Z	17%	33%
10-11 00Z	18%	33%
10-11 01Z	19%	33%
10-11 02Z	20%	17%
10-11 03Z	16%	17%
10-11 04Z	15%	17%
10-11 05Z	14%	17%
10-11 06Z	15%	17%
10-11 07Z	24%	33%
10-11 08Z	24%	33%
10-11 09Z	22%	33%
10-11 10Z	21%	33%
10-11 11Z	21%	33%
10-11 12Z	21%	33%
10-11 13Z	19%	33%
10-11 14Z	20%	33%
10-11 15Z	20%	33%
10-11 16Z	19%	33%
10-11 17Z	19%	33%
10-11 18Z	21%	33%
10-11 19Z	16%	33%
10-11 20Z	16%	33%
10-11 21Z	14%	33%
10-11 22Z	14%	50%
10-11 23Z	14%	50%

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

5.2 mm total (sum of hourly medians) · wettest hour 04Z: 0.2 mm/h (80% band 0.0–1.3) · 42% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)

Valid time	P≥0.1	P≥1	P≥5	P≥10
10-07 04Z	37%	13%	2%	0%
10-07 05Z	42%	13%	1%	0%
10-07 06Z	29%	9%	1%	0%
10-07 07Z	16%	3%	0%	0%
10-07 08Z	25%	6%	0%	0%
10-07 09Z	28%	7%	0%	0%
10-07 10Z	23%	6%	0%	0%
10-07 11Z	15%	4%	0%	0%
10-07 12Z	23%	6%	0%	0%
10-07 13Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 14Z	5%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 15Z	5%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 16Z	5%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 17Z	4%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 18Z	4%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 19Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 20Z	2%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 21Z	2%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 22Z	2%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 23Z	2%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 00Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 01Z	5%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 02Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 03Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 04Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 05Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 06Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 07Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 08Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 09Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 10Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 11Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 12Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 13Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 14Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 15Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 16Z	4%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 17Z	4%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 18Z	4%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 19Z	21%	6%	0%	0%
10-08 20Z	20%	6%	1%	0%
10-08 21Z	22%	7%	1%	0%
10-08 22Z	26%	8%	1%	0%
10-08 23Z	20%	7%	1%	0%
10-09 00Z	25%	10%	2%	1%
10-09 01Z	30%	10%	1%	0%
10-09 02Z	31%	7%	0%	0%
10-09 03Z	33%	6%	0%	0%
10-09 04Z	41%	7%	0%	0%
10-09 05Z	41%	7%	0%	0%
10-09 06Z	40%	7%	0%	0%
10-09 07Z	26%	4%	0%	0%
10-09 08Z	22%	3%	0%	0%
10-09 09Z	26%	4%	0%	0%
10-09 10Z	27%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 11Z	27%	7%	1%	0%
10-09 12Z	27%	7%	1%	0%
10-09 13Z	30%	6%	0%	0%
10-09 14Z	26%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 15Z	22%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 16Z	28%	7%	1%	0%
10-09 17Z	26%	6%	1%	0%
10-09 18Z	23%	4%	0%	0%
10-09 19Z	19%	6%	1%	0%
10-09 20Z	20%	6%	1%	0%
10-09 21Z	17%	5%	1%	0%
10-09 22Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-09 23Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 00Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 01Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 02Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 03Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 04Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 05Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 06Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 07Z	11%	2%	0%	0%
10-10 08Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 09Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 10Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 11Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 12Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 13Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 14Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 15Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 16Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 17Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 18Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 19Z	11%	2%	0%	0%
10-10 20Z	14%	3%	0%	0%
10-10 21Z	15%	3%	0%	0%
10-10 22Z	16%	3%	0%	0%
10-10 23Z	18%	4%	0%	0%

Raymonds Hill

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct	8%	4% at 07Z
Wed 07 Oct	12%	2% at 19Z
Thu 08 Oct	4%	1% at 11Z
Fri 09 Oct	18%	5% at 23Z
Sat 10 Oct	7%	2% at 08Z
Sun 11 Oct	34%	11% at 21Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
10-07 00Z	12%	33%
10-07 01Z	16%	50%
10-07 02Z	16%	50%
10-07 03Z	17%	50%
10-07 04Z	36%	50%
10-07 05Z	31%	50%
10-07 06Z	17%	67%
10-07 07Z	13%	17%
10-07 08Z	14%	33%
10-07 09Z	31%	43%
10-07 10Z	13%	29%
10-07 11Z	6%	14%
10-07 12Z	25%	43%
10-07 13Z	7%	14%
10-07 14Z	8%	14%
10-07 15Z	6%	17%
10-07 16Z	5%	17%
10-07 17Z	4%	17%
10-07 18Z	4%	17%
10-07 19Z	2%	0%
10-07 20Z	2%	0%
10-07 21Z	4%	0%
10-07 22Z	4%	0%
10-07 23Z	5%	0%
10-08 00Z	2%	0%
10-08 01Z	3%	17%
10-08 02Z	2%	0%
10-08 03Z	2%	0%
10-08 04Z	2%	0%
10-08 05Z	2%	0%
10-08 06Z	2%	0%
10-08 07Z	2%	0%
10-08 08Z	2%	0%
10-08 09Z	1%	0%
10-08 10Z	1%	0%
10-08 11Z	1%	0%
10-08 12Z	1%	0%
10-08 13Z	1%	0%
10-08 14Z	1%	0%
10-08 15Z	2%	0%
10-08 16Z	2%	17%
10-08 17Z	2%	17%
10-08 18Z	2%	17%
10-08 19Z	8%	33%
10-08 20Z	11%	33%
10-08 21Z	12%	50%
10-08 22Z	13%	67%
10-08 23Z	15%	67%
10-09 00Z	11%	50%
10-09 01Z	17%	83%
10-09 02Z	23%	67%
10-09 03Z	29%	67%
10-09 04Z	28%	67%
10-09 05Z	33%	67%
10-09 06Z	36%	67%
10-09 07Z	15%	33%
10-09 08Z	11%	33%
10-09 09Z	13%	29%
10-09 10Z	15%	43%
10-09 11Z	12%	43%
10-09 12Z	27%	57%
10-09 13Z	16%	29%
10-09 14Z	16%	29%
10-09 15Z	16%	33%
10-09 16Z	24%	67%
10-09 17Z	18%	67%
10-09 18Z	17%	50%
10-09 19Z	11%	17%
10-09 20Z	12%	33%
10-09 21Z	19%	17%
10-09 22Z	6%	0%
10-09 23Z	5%	0%
10-10 00Z	3%	0%
10-10 01Z	3%	0%
10-10 02Z	3%	0%
10-10 03Z	3%	0%
10-10 04Z	3%	0%
10-10 05Z	5%	0%
10-10 06Z	3%	0%
10-10 07Z	14%	33%
10-10 08Z	2%	0%
10-10 09Z	2%	0%
10-10 10Z	5%	14%
10-10 11Z	5%	14%
10-10 12Z	4%	14%
10-10 13Z	2%	0%
10-10 14Z	2%	0%
10-10 15Z	3%	0%
10-10 16Z	3%	0%
10-10 17Z	2%	0%
10-10 18Z	2%	0%
10-10 19Z	13%	17%
10-10 20Z	12%	33%
10-10 21Z	24%	33%
10-10 22Z	27%	33%
10-10 23Z	27%	33%
10-11 00Z	17%	33%
10-11 01Z	32%	33%
10-11 02Z	24%	17%
10-11 03Z	21%	17%
10-11 04Z	22%	17%
10-11 05Z	24%	17%
10-11 06Z	25%	17%
10-11 07Z	53%	33%
10-11 08Z	57%	33%
10-11 09Z	57%	33%
10-11 10Z	52%	33%
10-11 11Z	50%	33%
10-11 12Z	45%	33%
10-11 13Z	37%	33%
10-11 14Z	38%	33%
10-11 15Z	42%	33%
10-11 16Z	44%	33%
10-11 17Z	48%	33%
10-11 18Z	48%	33%
10-11 19Z	19%	33%
10-11 20Z	17%	33%
10-11 21Z	11%	33%
10-11 22Z	18%	50%
10-11 23Z	18%	50%

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

4.8 mm total (sum of hourly medians) · wettest hour 04Z: 0.2 mm/h (80% band 0.0–1.3) · 43% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)

Valid time	P≥0.1	P≥1	P≥5	P≥10
10-07 04Z	43%	13%	1%	0%
10-07 05Z	43%	13%	1%	0%
10-07 06Z	27%	8%	1%	0%
10-07 07Z	20%	4%	0%	0%
10-07 08Z	29%	7%	1%	0%
10-07 09Z	25%	6%	0%	0%
10-07 10Z	18%	4%	0%	0%
10-07 11Z	12%	4%	0%	0%
10-07 12Z	16%	4%	0%	0%
10-07 13Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 14Z	2%	1%	0%	0%
10-07 15Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 16Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 17Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 18Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 19Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 20Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 21Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 22Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 23Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 00Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 01Z	5%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 02Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 03Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 04Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 05Z	3%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 06Z	3%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 07Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 08Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 09Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 10Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 11Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 12Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 13Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 14Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 15Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-08 16Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 17Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 18Z	4%	1%	0%	0%
10-08 19Z	24%	7%	1%	0%
10-08 20Z	17%	5%	0%	0%
10-08 21Z	28%	9%	1%	0%
10-08 22Z	26%	8%	1%	0%
10-08 23Z	26%	8%	1%	0%
10-09 00Z	12%	5%	1%	0%
10-09 01Z	27%	8%	1%	0%
10-09 02Z	28%	6%	0%	0%
10-09 03Z	31%	6%	0%	0%
10-09 04Z	33%	6%	0%	0%
10-09 05Z	34%	6%	0%	0%
10-09 06Z	32%	6%	0%	0%
10-09 07Z	18%	3%	0%	0%
10-09 08Z	19%	3%	0%	0%
10-09 09Z	20%	4%	0%	0%
10-09 10Z	19%	4%	0%	0%
10-09 11Z	18%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 12Z	18%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 13Z	31%	7%	0%	0%
10-09 14Z	31%	6%	0%	0%
10-09 15Z	29%	6%	0%	0%
10-09 16Z	30%	7%	0%	0%
10-09 17Z	28%	6%	0%	0%
10-09 18Z	26%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 19Z	15%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 20Z	19%	6%	1%	0%
10-09 21Z	15%	5%	0%	0%
10-09 22Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-09 23Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 00Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 01Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 02Z	3%	1%	0%	0%
10-10 03Z	3%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 04Z	3%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 05Z	3%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 06Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 07Z	10%	2%	0%	0%
10-10 08Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 09Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 10Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 11Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 12Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 13Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 14Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 15Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 16Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 17Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 18Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-10 19Z	10%	2%	0%	0%
10-10 20Z	13%	2%	0%	0%
10-10 21Z	15%	3%	0%	0%
10-10 22Z	15%	3%	0%	0%
10-10 23Z	14%	3%	0%	0%

Membury village — best estimate of rain at the village (EA gauge forecasts × on-site calibration)

Weighted composite of the three gauge forecasts above: 0.51·Goren + 0.31·Chards Snowdon Hill + 0.13·Raymonds Hill, fitted 2026-06-10 against the village's own daily gauge (42 months). The village receives ~7% less rain than the raw gauge average. Band edges assume the gauges co-vary (they correlate at r ≈ 0.95); no exceedance table here because threshold probabilities don't combine across gauges.

5.2 mm total (sum of hourly medians) · wettest hour 04Z: 0.2 mm/h (80% band 0.0–1.2) · 43% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Predicted 09Z→09Z daily totals (sum of hourly village medians, at +96h)

Rain-day (09Z→09Z)	Predicted total
Tue 06 Oct	2.1 mm
Wed 07 Oct	0.6 mm
Thu 08 Oct	1.9 mm
Fri 09 Oct	1.6 mm

Rain +96h

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon

Chards Snowdon Hill

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

Goren

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

Raymonds Hill

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

Membury village — best estimate of rain at the village (EA gauge forecasts × on-site calibration)

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Membury, East Devon