Rain +96h
NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.
NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon
Chards Snowdon Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Fri 19 Jun 11%
11% at 23Z
Sat 20 Jun 6%
3% at 11Z
Sun 21 Jun 3%
2% at 09Z
Mon 22 Jun 3%
2% at 00Z
Tue 23 Jun 2%
2% at 15Z
Wed 24 Jun 3%
2% at 20Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
06-20 00Z 9%
17%
06-20 01Z 9%
33%
06-20 02Z 9%
17%
06-20 03Z 7%
17%
06-20 04Z 7%
17%
06-20 05Z 7%
17%
06-20 06Z 6%
17%
06-20 07Z 5%
17%
06-20 08Z 3%
17%
06-20 09Z 3%
14%
06-20 10Z 3%
14%
06-20 11Z 3%
14%
06-20 12Z 6%
29%
06-20 13Z 4%
14%
06-20 14Z 4%
14%
06-20 15Z 6%
17%
06-20 16Z 3%
17%
06-20 17Z 3%
17%
06-20 18Z 3%
17%
06-20 19Z 5%
17%
06-20 20Z 5%
17%
06-20 21Z 7%
17%
06-20 22Z 6%
17%
06-20 23Z 6%
17%
06-21 00Z 2%
0%
06-21 01Z 2%
0%
06-21 02Z 2%
0%
06-21 03Z 2%
0%
06-21 04Z 2%
0%
06-21 05Z 2%
0%
06-21 06Z 2%
0%
06-21 07Z 2%
0%
06-21 08Z 2%
0%
06-21 09Z 2%
0%
06-21 10Z 2%
0%
06-21 11Z 2%
0%
06-21 12Z 2%
0%
06-21 13Z 6%
14%
06-21 14Z 3%
0%
06-21 15Z 2%
0%
06-21 16Z 2%
0%
06-21 17Z 2%
0%
06-21 18Z 2%
0%
06-21 19Z 5%
17%
06-21 20Z 2%
0%
06-21 21Z 3%
0%
06-21 22Z 6%
17%
06-21 23Z 6%
17%
06-22 00Z 2%
0%
06-22 01Z 6%
17%
06-22 02Z 2%
0%
06-22 03Z 2%
0%
06-22 04Z 2%
0%
06-22 05Z 2%
0%
06-22 06Z 2%
0%
06-22 07Z 2%
0%
06-22 08Z 2%
0%
06-22 09Z 3%
0%
06-22 10Z 3%
0%
06-22 11Z 3%
0%
06-22 12Z 3%
0%
06-22 13Z 3%
0%
06-22 14Z 3%
0%
06-22 15Z 2%
0%
06-22 16Z 2%
0%
06-22 17Z 2%
0%
06-22 18Z 2%
0%
06-22 19Z 2%
0%
06-22 20Z 4%
17%
06-22 21Z 6%
17%
06-22 22Z 6%
17%
06-22 23Z 6%
17%
06-23 00Z 3%
17%
06-23 01Z 2%
0%
06-23 02Z 2%
0%
06-23 03Z 2%
0%
06-23 04Z 2%
0%
06-23 05Z 2%
0%
06-23 06Z 2%
0%
06-23 07Z 2%
0%
06-23 08Z 2%
0%
06-23 09Z 3%
0%
06-23 10Z 3%
0%
06-23 11Z 3%
0%
06-23 12Z 3%
0%
06-23 13Z 3%
0%
06-23 14Z 4%
0%
06-23 15Z 2%
0%
06-23 16Z 2%
0%
06-23 17Z 2%
0%
06-23 18Z 2%
0%
06-23 19Z 2%
0%
06-23 20Z 2%
0%
06-23 21Z 3%
0%
06-23 22Z 3%
0%
06-23 23Z 3%
0%
06-24 00Z 2%
0%
06-24 01Z 2%
0%
06-24 02Z 2%
0%
06-24 03Z 2%
0%
06-24 04Z 2%
0%
06-24 05Z 2%
0%
06-24 06Z 2%
0%
06-24 07Z 2%
0%
06-24 08Z 2%
0%
06-24 09Z 3%
0%
06-24 10Z 3%
0%
06-24 11Z 3%
0%
06-24 12Z 4%
0%
06-24 13Z 4%
0%
06-24 14Z 4%
0%
06-24 15Z 2%
0%
06-24 16Z 2%
0%
06-24 17Z 2%
0%
06-24 18Z 2%
0%
06-24 19Z 3%
17%
06-24 20Z 2%
0%
06-24 21Z 3%
0%
06-24 22Z 3%
0%
06-24 23Z 3%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 7%
at 01Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
06-20 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-20 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 04Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 05Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 06Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 07Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 19Z 5%
2%
0%
0%
06-21 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 22Z 5%
2%
0%
0%
06-21 23Z 5%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 01Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 04Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 20Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 04Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 23Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 04Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 19Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 23Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
Goren
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Fri 19 Jun 11%
10% at 22Z
Sat 20 Jun 8%
4% at 14Z
Sun 21 Jun 3%
2% at 09Z
Mon 22 Jun 3%
2% at 10Z
Tue 23 Jun 4%
3% at 01Z
Wed 24 Jun 4%
3% at 16Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
06-20 00Z 16%
17%
06-20 01Z 15%
33%
06-20 02Z 15%
17%
06-20 03Z 14%
17%
06-20 04Z 12%
17%
06-20 05Z 11%
17%
06-20 06Z 8%
17%
06-20 07Z 6%
17%
06-20 08Z 6%
17%
06-20 09Z 5%
14%
06-20 10Z 5%
14%
06-20 11Z 5%
14%
06-20 12Z 8%
29%
06-20 13Z 4%
14%
06-20 14Z 4%
14%
06-20 15Z 7%
17%
06-20 16Z 4%
17%
06-20 17Z 4%
17%
06-20 18Z 4%
17%
06-20 19Z 7%
17%
06-20 20Z 8%
17%
06-20 21Z 10%
17%
06-20 22Z 8%
17%
06-20 23Z 8%
17%
06-21 00Z 2%
0%
06-21 01Z 3%
0%
06-21 02Z 2%
0%
06-21 03Z 2%
0%
06-21 04Z 2%
0%
06-21 05Z 2%
0%
06-21 06Z 2%
0%
06-21 07Z 2%
0%
06-21 08Z 2%
0%
06-21 09Z 2%
0%
06-21 10Z 2%
0%
06-21 11Z 2%
0%
06-21 12Z 2%
0%
06-21 13Z 4%
14%
06-21 14Z 2%
0%
06-21 15Z 2%
0%
06-21 16Z 2%
0%
06-21 17Z 2%
0%
06-21 18Z 2%
0%
06-21 19Z 5%
17%
06-21 20Z 2%
0%
06-21 21Z 6%
0%
06-21 22Z 8%
17%
06-21 23Z 9%
17%
06-22 00Z 2%
0%
06-22 01Z 7%
17%
06-22 02Z 2%
0%
06-22 03Z 2%
0%
06-22 04Z 2%
0%
06-22 05Z 2%
0%
06-22 06Z 2%
0%
06-22 07Z 2%
0%
06-22 08Z 2%
0%
06-22 09Z 2%
0%
06-22 10Z 2%
0%
06-22 11Z 2%
0%
06-22 12Z 2%
0%
06-22 13Z 2%
0%
06-22 14Z 2%
0%
06-22 15Z 2%
0%
06-22 16Z 2%
0%
06-22 17Z 3%
0%
06-22 18Z 3%
0%
06-22 19Z 3%
0%
06-22 20Z 6%
17%
06-22 21Z 8%
17%
06-22 22Z 9%
17%
06-22 23Z 9%
17%
06-23 00Z 5%
17%
06-23 01Z 3%
0%
06-23 02Z 4%
0%
06-23 03Z 4%
0%
06-23 04Z 4%
0%
06-23 05Z 3%
0%
06-23 06Z 3%
0%
06-23 07Z 3%
0%
06-23 08Z 3%
0%
06-23 09Z 3%
0%
06-23 10Z 3%
0%
06-23 11Z 3%
0%
06-23 12Z 4%
0%
06-23 13Z 5%
0%
06-23 14Z 4%
0%
06-23 15Z 3%
0%
06-23 16Z 3%
0%
06-23 17Z 3%
0%
06-23 18Z 3%
0%
06-23 19Z 3%
0%
06-23 20Z 3%
0%
06-23 21Z 6%
0%
06-23 22Z 6%
0%
06-23 23Z 6%
0%
06-24 00Z 3%
0%
06-24 01Z 3%
0%
06-24 02Z 3%
0%
06-24 03Z 3%
0%
06-24 04Z 3%
0%
06-24 05Z 3%
0%
06-24 06Z 3%
0%
06-24 07Z 3%
0%
06-24 08Z 3%
0%
06-24 09Z 3%
0%
06-24 10Z 4%
0%
06-24 11Z 4%
0%
06-24 12Z 3%
0%
06-24 13Z 4%
0%
06-24 14Z 4%
0%
06-24 15Z 3%
0%
06-24 16Z 3%
0%
06-24 17Z 3%
0%
06-24 18Z 3%
0%
06-24 19Z 6%
17%
06-24 20Z 3%
0%
06-24 21Z 7%
0%
06-24 22Z 7%
0%
06-24 23Z 7%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 7%
at 23Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
06-20 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-20 23Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 03Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 13Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 14Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 15Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 19Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 20Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 22Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-21 23Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 01Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 03Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 04Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 05Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 06Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 08Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 09Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 12Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 14Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 15Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 19Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 20Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 21Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 22Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 23Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 03Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 04Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 05Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 07Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 08Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 09Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 12Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 14Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 15Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 19Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 20Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 01Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 03Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 04Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 05Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 06Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 08Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 09Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 12Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 14Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 15Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 19Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 20Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
Raymonds Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Fri 19 Jun 9%
9% at 22Z
Sat 20 Jun 7%
4% at 17Z
Sun 21 Jun 4%
3% at 09Z
Mon 22 Jun 4%
3% at 09Z
Tue 23 Jun 4%
3% at 08Z
Wed 24 Jun 4%
3% at 08Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
06-20 00Z 13%
17%
06-20 01Z 12%
33%
06-20 02Z 11%
17%
06-20 03Z 11%
17%
06-20 04Z 9%
17%
06-20 05Z 9%
17%
06-20 06Z 6%
17%
06-20 07Z 5%
17%
06-20 08Z 5%
17%
06-20 09Z 5%
14%
06-20 10Z 5%
14%
06-20 11Z 5%
14%
06-20 12Z 11%
29%
06-20 13Z 5%
14%
06-20 14Z 5%
14%
06-20 15Z 6%
17%
06-20 16Z 4%
17%
06-20 17Z 4%
17%
06-20 18Z 4%
17%
06-20 19Z 7%
17%
06-20 20Z 6%
17%
06-20 21Z 6%
17%
06-20 22Z 4%
17%
06-20 23Z 4%
17%
06-21 00Z 4%
0%
06-21 01Z 4%
0%
06-21 02Z 4%
0%
06-21 03Z 3%
0%
06-21 04Z 4%
0%
06-21 05Z 4%
0%
06-21 06Z 3%
0%
06-21 07Z 3%
0%
06-21 08Z 4%
0%
06-21 09Z 3%
0%
06-21 10Z 3%
0%
06-21 11Z 3%
0%
06-21 12Z 3%
0%
06-21 13Z 5%
14%
06-21 14Z 3%
0%
06-21 15Z 4%
0%
06-21 16Z 4%
0%
06-21 17Z 4%
0%
06-21 18Z 4%
0%
06-21 19Z 5%
17%
06-21 20Z 4%
0%
06-21 21Z 4%
0%
06-21 22Z 6%
17%
06-21 23Z 6%
17%
06-22 00Z 4%
0%
06-22 01Z 7%
17%
06-22 02Z 3%
0%
06-22 03Z 3%
0%
06-22 04Z 3%
0%
06-22 05Z 3%
0%
06-22 06Z 3%
0%
06-22 07Z 3%
0%
06-22 08Z 3%
0%
06-22 09Z 3%
0%
06-22 10Z 3%
0%
06-22 11Z 3%
0%
06-22 12Z 3%
0%
06-22 13Z 3%
0%
06-22 14Z 3%
0%
06-22 15Z 4%
0%
06-22 16Z 4%
0%
06-22 17Z 4%
0%
06-22 18Z 3%
0%
06-22 19Z 3%
0%
06-22 20Z 5%
17%
06-22 21Z 7%
17%
06-22 22Z 6%
17%
06-22 23Z 6%
17%
06-23 00Z 4%
17%
06-23 01Z 4%
0%
06-23 02Z 4%
0%
06-23 03Z 4%
0%
06-23 04Z 4%
0%
06-23 05Z 4%
0%
06-23 06Z 4%
0%
06-23 07Z 4%
0%
06-23 08Z 3%
0%
06-23 09Z 4%
0%
06-23 10Z 4%
0%
06-23 11Z 4%
0%
06-23 12Z 4%
0%
06-23 13Z 4%
0%
06-23 14Z 4%
0%
06-23 15Z 4%
0%
06-23 16Z 4%
0%
06-23 17Z 4%
0%
06-23 18Z 4%
0%
06-23 19Z 4%
0%
06-23 20Z 4%
0%
06-23 21Z 8%
0%
06-23 22Z 7%
0%
06-23 23Z 6%
0%
06-24 00Z 4%
0%
06-24 01Z 4%
0%
06-24 02Z 4%
0%
06-24 03Z 4%
0%
06-24 04Z 4%
0%
06-24 05Z 4%
0%
06-24 06Z 4%
0%
06-24 07Z 4%
0%
06-24 08Z 3%
0%
06-24 09Z 4%
0%
06-24 10Z 4%
0%
06-24 11Z 4%
0%
06-24 12Z 4%
0%
06-24 13Z 4%
0%
06-24 14Z 4%
0%
06-24 15Z 4%
0%
06-24 16Z 4%
0%
06-24 17Z 4%
0%
06-24 18Z 4%
0%
06-24 19Z 4%
17%
06-24 20Z 4%
0%
06-24 21Z 7%
0%
06-24 22Z 6%
0%
06-24 23Z 6%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 6%
at 22Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
06-20 22Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-20 23Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 04Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 05Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 06Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 07Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 19Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 22Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-21 23Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 01Z 6%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 04Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 05Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 06Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 07Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 20Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 03Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 04Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 05Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 06Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 07Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 23Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 04Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 05Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 06Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 07Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 19Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 23Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
Membury village — best estimate of rain at the village
(EA gauge forecasts × on-site calibration)
Weighted composite of the three gauge forecasts above:
0.51·Goren + 0.31·Chards Snowdon Hill + 0.13·Raymonds Hill, fitted 2026-06-10 against the village's own
daily gauge (42 months). The village receives ~7% less rain than the
raw gauge average. Band edges assume the gauges co-vary
(they correlate at r ≈ 0.95); no exceedance table here because
threshold probabilities don't combine across gauges.
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 7%
at 01Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Predicted 09Z→09Z daily totals (sum of hourly village medians, at +96h)
Rain-day (09Z→09Z) Predicted total Sat 20 Jun 0.4 mm Sun 21 Jun 0.4 mm Mon 22 Jun 0.3 mm Tue 23 Jun 0.3 mm
NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Membury, East Devon