WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Membury, East Devon

Rain +24h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon

Chards Snowdon Hill

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct	9%	2% at 16Z
Wed 07 Oct	28%	3% at 23Z
Thu 08 Oct	6%	2% at 01Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
10-07 00Z	37%	71%
10-07 01Z	71%	86%
10-07 02Z	76%	86%
10-07 03Z	75%	86%
10-07 04Z	76%	100%
10-07 05Z	73%	100%
10-07 06Z	71%	86%
10-07 07Z	35%	57%
10-07 08Z	35%	57%
10-07 09Z	26%	43%
10-07 10Z	19%	43%
10-07 11Z	17%	43%
10-07 12Z	24%	57%
10-07 13Z	3%	0%
10-07 14Z	4%	0%
10-07 15Z	4%	0%
10-07 16Z	4%	0%
10-07 17Z	4%	0%
10-07 18Z	3%	0%
10-07 19Z	3%	0%
10-07 20Z	5%	0%
10-07 21Z	4%	0%
10-07 22Z	3%	0%
10-07 23Z	3%	0%
10-08 00Z	6%	14%
10-08 01Z	2%	0%
10-08 02Z	2%	0%
10-08 03Z	2%	0%
10-08 04Z	2%	0%
10-08 05Z	2%	0%
10-08 06Z	2%	0%
10-08 07Z	2%	0%
10-08 08Z	2%	0%
10-08 09Z	2%	0%
10-08 10Z	3%	0%
10-08 11Z	3%	0%
10-08 12Z	3%	0%
10-08 13Z	3%	0%
10-08 14Z	3%	0%
10-08 15Z	3%	0%
10-08 16Z	3%	0%
10-08 17Z	2%	0%
10-08 18Z	5%	29%
10-08 19Z	15%	86%
10-08 20Z	14%	71%
10-08 21Z	11%	57%
10-08 22Z	16%	57%
10-08 23Z	30%	71%

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

2.4 mm total (sum of hourly medians) · wettest hour 04Z: 0.8 mm/h (80% band 0.0–3.2) · 76% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)

Valid time	P≥0.1	P≥1	P≥5	P≥10
10-07 04Z	76%	39%	4%	1%
10-07 05Z	71%	26%	2%	0%
10-07 06Z	52%	16%	1%	0%
10-07 07Z	26%	5%	0%	0%
10-07 08Z	29%	5%	0%	0%
10-07 09Z	29%	4%	0%	0%
10-07 10Z	27%	3%	0%	0%
10-07 11Z	14%	2%	0%	0%
10-07 12Z	33%	5%	0%	0%
10-07 13Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 14Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 15Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 16Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 17Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 18Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 19Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 20Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 21Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 22Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 23Z	2%	0%	0%	0%

Goren

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct	11%	2% at 16Z
Wed 07 Oct	31%	2% at 14Z
Thu 08 Oct	8%	2% at 01Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
10-07 00Z	50%	71%
10-07 01Z	83%	86%
10-07 02Z	83%	86%
10-07 03Z	84%	86%
10-07 04Z	84%	100%
10-07 05Z	84%	100%
10-07 06Z	86%	86%
10-07 07Z	29%	57%
10-07 08Z	38%	57%
10-07 09Z	29%	43%
10-07 10Z	23%	43%
10-07 11Z	18%	43%
10-07 12Z	22%	57%
10-07 13Z	3%	0%
10-07 14Z	2%	0%
10-07 15Z	3%	0%
10-07 16Z	3%	0%
10-07 17Z	2%	0%
10-07 18Z	2%	0%
10-07 19Z	2%	0%
10-07 20Z	4%	0%
10-07 21Z	3%	0%
10-07 22Z	4%	0%
10-07 23Z	3%	0%
10-08 00Z	7%	14%
10-08 01Z	2%	0%
10-08 02Z	3%	0%
10-08 03Z	3%	0%
10-08 04Z	3%	0%
10-08 05Z	3%	0%
10-08 06Z	3%	0%
10-08 07Z	3%	0%
10-08 08Z	3%	0%
10-08 09Z	3%	0%
10-08 10Z	3%	0%
10-08 11Z	3%	0%
10-08 12Z	3%	0%
10-08 13Z	3%	0%
10-08 14Z	3%	0%
10-08 15Z	3%	0%
10-08 16Z	3%	0%
10-08 17Z	3%	0%
10-08 18Z	7%	29%
10-08 19Z	24%	86%
10-08 20Z	24%	71%
10-08 21Z	16%	57%
10-08 22Z	20%	57%
10-08 23Z	30%	71%

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

2.6 mm total (sum of hourly medians) · wettest hour 04Z: 0.9 mm/h (80% band 0.0–4.6) · 76% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)

Valid time	P≥0.1	P≥1	P≥5	P≥10
10-07 04Z	76%	44%	9%	3%
10-07 05Z	75%	33%	5%	1%
10-07 06Z	70%	22%	2%	0%
10-07 07Z	21%	4%	0%	0%
10-07 08Z	24%	5%	0%	0%
10-07 09Z	27%	5%	0%	0%
10-07 10Z	21%	3%	0%	0%
10-07 11Z	21%	4%	0%	0%
10-07 12Z	21%	3%	0%	0%
10-07 13Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 14Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 15Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 16Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 17Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 18Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 19Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 20Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 21Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 22Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 23Z	1%	0%	0%	0%

Raymonds Hill

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct	13%	3% at 11Z
Wed 07 Oct	33%	2% at 19Z
Thu 08 Oct	8%	2% at 01Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
10-07 00Z	55%	71%
10-07 01Z	84%	86%
10-07 02Z	86%	86%
10-07 03Z	87%	86%
10-07 04Z	89%	100%
10-07 05Z	88%	100%
10-07 06Z	84%	86%
10-07 07Z	42%	57%
10-07 08Z	39%	57%
10-07 09Z	31%	43%
10-07 10Z	28%	43%
10-07 11Z	21%	43%
10-07 12Z	21%	57%
10-07 13Z	2%	0%
10-07 14Z	4%	0%
10-07 15Z	3%	0%
10-07 16Z	3%	0%
10-07 17Z	3%	0%
10-07 18Z	2%	0%
10-07 19Z	2%	0%
10-07 20Z	3%	0%
10-07 21Z	3%	0%
10-07 22Z	3%	0%
10-07 23Z	3%	0%
10-08 00Z	3%	14%
10-08 01Z	2%	0%
10-08 02Z	3%	0%
10-08 03Z	3%	0%
10-08 04Z	3%	0%
10-08 05Z	3%	0%
10-08 06Z	3%	0%
10-08 07Z	3%	0%
10-08 08Z	2%	0%
10-08 09Z	3%	0%
10-08 10Z	3%	0%
10-08 11Z	3%	0%
10-08 12Z	4%	0%
10-08 13Z	4%	0%
10-08 14Z	4%	0%
10-08 15Z	4%	0%
10-08 16Z	4%	0%
10-08 17Z	3%	0%
10-08 18Z	10%	29%
10-08 19Z	27%	86%
10-08 20Z	33%	71%
10-08 21Z	15%	57%
10-08 22Z	19%	57%
10-08 23Z	29%	71%

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

2.6 mm total (sum of hourly medians) · wettest hour 04Z: 0.9 mm/h (80% band 0.0–4.8) · 79% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)

Valid time	P≥0.1	P≥1	P≥5	P≥10
10-07 04Z	79%	44%	10%	3%
10-07 05Z	74%	34%	5%	1%
10-07 06Z	62%	19%	2%	0%
10-07 07Z	34%	7%	0%	0%
10-07 08Z	32%	6%	0%	0%
10-07 09Z	34%	6%	0%	0%
10-07 10Z	25%	4%	0%	0%
10-07 11Z	17%	3%	0%	0%
10-07 12Z	25%	4%	0%	0%
10-07 13Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 14Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 15Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 16Z	2%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 17Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 18Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 19Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 20Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 21Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 22Z	1%	0%	0%	0%
10-07 23Z	2%	0%	0%	0%

Membury village — best estimate of rain at the village (EA gauge forecasts × on-site calibration)

Weighted composite of the three gauge forecasts above: 0.51·Goren + 0.31·Chards Snowdon Hill + 0.13·Raymonds Hill, fitted 2026-06-10 against the village's own daily gauge (42 months). The village receives ~7% less rain than the raw gauge average. Band edges assume the gauges co-vary (they correlate at r ≈ 0.95); no exceedance table here because threshold probabilities don't combine across gauges.

2.4 mm total (sum of hourly medians) · wettest hour 04Z: 0.9 mm/h (80% band 0.0–4.0) · 76% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Predicted 09Z→09Z daily totals (sum of hourly village medians, at +24h)

Rain-day (09Z→09Z)	Predicted total
Tue 06 Oct	5.1 mm

Rain +24h

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon

Chards Snowdon Hill

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

Goren

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

Raymonds Hill

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

Membury village — best estimate of rain at the village (EA gauge forecasts × on-site calibration)

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Membury, East Devon