WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Membury, East Devon

Rain +24h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon

Chards Snowdon Hill

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
3% 3% at 23Z
9% 2% at 00Z
2% 2% at 19Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
2% 0%
7% 29%
4% 14%
5% 14%
6% 14%
7% 14%
14% 29%
18% 43%
20% 43%
19% 43%
20% 43%
19% 43%
24% 43%
8% 14%
8% 14%
8% 14%
6% 14%
6% 14%
5% 14%
5% 14%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
5% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

Dry day expected. Peak chance of any rain: 3% at .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time P≥0.1 P≥1 P≥5 P≥10
2% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%

Goren

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
6% 6% at 23Z
12% 2% at 00Z
3% 2% at 18Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
2% 0%
9% 29%
6% 14%
7% 14%
9% 14%
11% 14%
17% 29%
22% 43%
22% 43%
17% 43%
18% 43%
21% 43%
14% 43%
12% 14%
13% 14%
13% 14%
13% 14%
13% 14%
11% 14%
10% 14%
6% 0%
6% 0%
6% 0%
7% 0%
3% 0%
7% 14%
3% 0%
3% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0%
4% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

Dry day expected. Peak chance of any rain: 4% at .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time P≥0.1 P≥1 P≥5 P≥10
4% 1% 0% 0%
4% 0% 0% 0%
4% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%

Raymonds Hill

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
5% 5% at 23Z
10% 2% at 00Z
3% 2% at 05Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
2% 0%
8% 29%
4% 14%
5% 14%
6% 14%
7% 14%
14% 29%
30% 43%
32% 43%
27% 43%
21% 43%
18% 43%
7% 43%
6% 14%
6% 14%
6% 14%
5% 14%
6% 14%
6% 14%
6% 14%
5% 0%
4% 0%
4% 0%
4% 0%
3% 0%
6% 14%
3% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0%
4% 0%
4% 0%
4% 0%

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

Dry day expected. Peak chance of any rain: 3% at .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time P≥0.1 P≥1 P≥5 P≥10
3% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%

Membury village — best estimate of rain at the village (EA gauge forecasts × on-site calibration)

Weighted composite of the three gauge forecasts above: 0.51·Goren + 0.31·Chards Snowdon Hill + 0.13·Raymonds Hill, fitted 2026-06-10 against the village's own daily gauge (42 months). The village receives ~7% less rain than the raw gauge average. Band edges assume the gauges co-vary (they correlate at r ≈ 0.95); no exceedance table here because threshold probabilities don't combine across gauges.

Dry day expected. Peak chance of any rain: 3% at .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Predicted 09Z→09Z daily totals (sum of hourly village medians, at +24h)
Rain-day (09Z→09Z)Predicted total
0.5 mm

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Membury, East Devon