WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Membury, East Devon

Rain <24hr

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon

Chards Snowdon Hill

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
6% 6% at 23Z
8% 1% at 22Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
9% 29%
12% 29%
16% 43%
16% 43%
12% 29%
11% 29%
12% 29%
9% 29%
4% 14%
6% 29%
3% 14%
3% 14%
10% 29%
11% 43%
11% 43%
6% 29%
10% 43%
10% 57%
8% 43%
3% 14%
3% 14%
3% 14%
1% 0%
1% 0%

Goren

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
9% 9% at 23Z
10% 2% at 22Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
15% 29%
19% 29%
15% 43%
18% 43%
14% 29%
12% 29%
11% 29%
11% 29%
7% 14%
11% 29%
5% 14%
5% 14%
15% 29%
13% 43%
12% 43%
10% 29%
12% 43%
13% 57%
11% 43%
5% 14%
5% 14%
6% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%

Raymonds Hill

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
9% 9% at 22Z
10% 2% at 22Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
16% 29%
19% 29%
19% 43%
31% 43%
11% 29%
16% 29%
11% 29%
9% 29%
6% 14%
9% 29%
5% 14%
4% 14%
12% 29%
9% 43%
9% 43%
6% 29%
8% 43%
8% 57%
8% 43%
4% 14%
4% 14%
4% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Membury, East Devon