WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Membury, East Devon

Rain <24hr

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon

Chards Snowdon Hill

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct	6%	1% at 11Z
Wed 07 Oct	33%	3% at 23Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
10-07 00Z	36%	71%
10-07 01Z	71%	100%
10-07 02Z	80%	100%
10-07 03Z	82%	100%
10-07 04Z	84%	100%
10-07 05Z	85%	100%
10-07 06Z	85%	100%
10-07 07Z	61%	86%
10-07 08Z	49%	86%
10-07 09Z	35%	71%
10-07 10Z	18%	43%
10-07 11Z	30%	71%
10-07 12Z	21%	57%
10-07 13Z	6%	0%
10-07 14Z	7%	0%
10-07 15Z	7%	0%
10-07 16Z	7%	0%
10-07 17Z	7%	0%
10-07 18Z	7%	0%
10-07 19Z	5%	0%
10-07 20Z	5%	0%
10-07 21Z	4%	0%
10-07 22Z	4%	0%
10-07 23Z	3%	0%

Goren

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct	9%	2% at 12Z
Wed 07 Oct	35%	2% at 13Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
10-07 00Z	46%	71%
10-07 01Z	83%	100%
10-07 02Z	83%	100%
10-07 03Z	83%	100%
10-07 04Z	85%	100%
10-07 05Z	86%	100%
10-07 06Z	87%	100%
10-07 07Z	66%	86%
10-07 08Z	61%	86%
10-07 09Z	39%	71%
10-07 10Z	20%	43%
10-07 11Z	31%	71%
10-07 12Z	21%	57%
10-07 13Z	2%	0%
10-07 14Z	3%	0%
10-07 15Z	3%	0%
10-07 16Z	4%	0%
10-07 17Z	3%	0%
10-07 18Z	3%	0%
10-07 19Z	3%	0%
10-07 20Z	4%	0%
10-07 21Z	3%	0%
10-07 22Z	3%	0%
10-07 23Z	3%	0%

Raymonds Hill

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct	13%	3% at 10Z
Wed 07 Oct	37%	2% at 13Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
10-07 00Z	65%	71%
10-07 01Z	83%	100%
10-07 02Z	87%	100%
10-07 03Z	89%	100%
10-07 04Z	90%	100%
10-07 05Z	90%	100%
10-07 06Z	91%	100%
10-07 07Z	76%	86%
10-07 08Z	67%	86%
10-07 09Z	35%	71%
10-07 10Z	18%	43%
10-07 11Z	32%	71%
10-07 12Z	13%	57%
10-07 13Z	2%	0%
10-07 14Z	6%	0%
10-07 15Z	7%	0%
10-07 16Z	7%	0%
10-07 17Z	5%	0%
10-07 18Z	4%	0%
10-07 19Z	3%	0%
10-07 20Z	3%	0%
10-07 21Z	3%	0%
10-07 22Z	3%	0%
10-07 23Z	3%	0%

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Membury, East Devon