Phase 2c · v2026-08-02_151746_phase2c Δ -0.006 vs prev train
Rich blender, 88 features (adds dew/RH/cloud/wind/pressure). Trained 2026-08-02. Metric: Test MAE (°C).
| Lead | Blend | Best single | Δ vs best |
|---|---|---|---|
| +24h | 0.559 | temp_ecmwf (1.157) | -51.7% |
| +48h | 0.644 | temp_aifs (0.785) | -18.0% |
| +72h | 0.751 | temp_aifs (0.830) | -9.4% |
| +96h | 0.938 | temp_aifs (0.959) | -2.2% |
| +120h | 1.202 | temp_aifs (1.140) | +5.5% |
Verify history (22 runs)
Mon + Thu rolling MAE (°C). Per-lead cells turn red when the rolling metric breaches the lead-specific drift threshold; check the verify report for the per-cell breakdown. Version column names the trained model — a fresh champion takes ~5-9d to show.
| Run (UTC) | Version | N | +12h | +24h | +48h | +72h | +96h | +120h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
v2026-07-19_150748_phase2cv2026-07-26_152348_phase2c |
624 | 1.351 temp_aifs: 0.524 | 1.247 temp_aifs: 0.456 | 0.911 temp_aifs: 0.839 | 1.488 temp_aifs: 0.913 | 1.404 temp_aifs: 0.972 | 1.655 temp_aifs: 0.934 |
|
v2026-07-12_151351_phase2cv2026-07-19_150748_phase2c |
624 | 1.909 temp_mf: 0.804 | 1.935 temp_mf: 0.990 | 1.190 temp_aifs: 1.082 | 2.071 temp_aifs: 1.233 | 2.002 temp_ukmo: 1.248 | 1.820 temp_aifs: 1.257 |
|
v2026-07-12_151351_phase2cv2026-07-19_150748_phase2c |
624 | 1.704 temp_mf: 0.875 | 1.773 temp_mf: 0.467 | 0.951 temp_aifs: 0.918 | 1.381 temp_icon: 0.873 | 1.668 temp_icon: 1.087 | 1.658 temp_aifs: 1.222 |
|
v2026-07-05_150329_phase2cv2026-07-12_151351_phase2c |
624 | 2.011 temp_aifs: 0.670 | 1.851 temp_aifs: 0.660 | 1.085 temp_aifs: 0.635 | 1.317 temp_aifs: 0.726 | 1.795 temp_aifs: 0.962 | 2.303 temp_icon: 1.309 |
|
v2026-07-05_150329_phase2cv2026-07-12_151351_phase2c |
624 | 2.278 temp_ecmwf: 0.478 | 1.975 temp_ecmwf: 0.360 | 1.984 temp_aifs: 1.202 | 2.466 temp_icon: 1.115 | 3.298 temp_icon: 1.163 | 2.872 temp_icon: 1.256 |
|
v2026-06-28_152406_phase2cv2026-07-05_150329_phase2c |
648 | 2.099 temp_aifs: 1.200 | 2.294 temp_mf: 1.020 | 1.817 temp_aifs: 1.175 | 2.497 temp_icon: 1.144 | 3.314 temp_mf: 1.213 | 2.143 temp_aifs: 1.292 |
|
v2026-06-28_152406_phase2cv2026-07-05_150329_phase2c |
648 | 1.851 temp_aifs: 1.088 | 2.394 temp_mf: 1.133 | 0.948 temp_aifs: 0.888 | 1.442 temp_aifs: 1.045 | 1.704 temp_aifs: 1.230 | 1.605 temp_aifs: 1.015 |
|
v2026-06-21_151058_phase2cv2026-06-28_152406_phase2c |
648 | 0.820 temp_aifs: 0.585 | 0.734 temp_icon: 0.562 | 0.451 temp_icon: 0.560 | 0.880 temp_ecmwf: 0.589 | 1.052 temp_ecmwf: 0.300 | 1.421 temp_aifs: 0.956 |
|
v2026-06-21_151058_phase2cv2026-06-28_152406_phase2c |
648 | 0.714 temp_aifs: 0.593 | 0.420 temp_aifs: 0.496 | 1.981 temp_aifs: 1.049 | 2.145 temp_aifs: 1.028 | 2.410 temp_aifs: 0.979 | 1.699 temp_aifs: 1.060 |
|
v2026-06-15_085319_phase2cv2026-06-21_151058_phase2c |
600 | 3.502 temp_icon: 1.004 | 3.963 temp_icon: 1.362 | 3.976 temp_aifs: 1.472 | 4.804 temp_aifs: 1.226 | 5.937 temp_aifs: 0.871 | 3.853 temp_ukmo: 2.343 |
|
v2026-06-15_085319_phase2cv2026-06-21_151058_phase2c |
600 | 2.108 temp_ukmo: 0.976 | 2.307 temp_ukmo: 0.825 | 0.987 temp_aifs: 0.675 | 1.152 temp_aifs: 0.823 | 1.847 temp_aifs: 0.895 | 1.926 temp_aifs: 1.361 |
|
v2026-06-07_143923_phase2cv2026-06-14_151935_phase2cv2026-06-15_085319_phase2c |
720 | 0.766 temp_aifs: 0.557 | 0.738 temp_aifs: 0.591 | 0.522 temp_icon: 0.508 | 0.736 temp_icon: 0.521 | 1.307 temp_mf: 0.900 | 0.879 temp_ukmo: 1.207 |
|
v2026-06-07_143923_phase2cv2026-06-14_151935_phase2cv2026-06-15_085319_phase2c |
720 | 0.822 temp_icon: 0.458 | 0.898 temp_icon: 0.458 | 0.525 temp_aifs: 0.728 | 0.634 temp_aifs: 0.655 | 0.879 temp_aifs: 0.945 | 1.009 temp_aifs: 1.346 |
|
v2026-06-01_234001_phase2cv2026-06-07_143923_phase2c |
528 | — | 0.398 temp_ecmwf: 0.522 | 0.413 temp_ecmwf: 0.570 | 0.486 temp_aifs: 0.496 | 1.143 temp_ukmo: 0.688 | 0.649 temp_aifs: 0.687 |
|
v2026-06-01_234001_phase2cv2026-06-07_143923_phase2c |
528 | — | 0.474 temp_aifs: 0.533 | 0.494 temp_aifs: 0.516 | 0.488 temp_ecmwf: 0.710 | 0.634 temp_ecmwf: 0.796 | 0.625 temp_ecmwf: 0.698 |
|
v2026-06-01_234001_phase2c |
432 | — | 0.351 temp_aifs: 0.493 | 0.577 temp_aifs: 0.523 | 0.559 temp_aifs: 0.813 | 0.691 temp_mf: 0.781 | 0.705 temp_aifs: 0.808 |
|
v2026-05-26_102733_phase2cv2026-06-01_234001_phase2c |
528 | — | 0.321 temp_aifs: 0.501 | 0.347 temp_aifs: 0.445 | 0.652 temp_aifs: 0.350 | 0.612 temp_aifs: 0.797 | 0.686 temp_aifs: 0.750 |
|
v2026-05-26_102733_phase2cv2026-05-31_210744_phase2c |
528 | — | 0.312 temp_aifs: 0.571 | 0.563 temp_icon: 0.989 | 0.715 temp_gem: 0.922 | 0.654 temp_aifs: 0.870 | 0.706 temp_aifs: 0.796 |
|
v2026-05-17_173719_phase2cv2026-05-24_141820_phase2cv2026-05-26_102733_phase2c |
744 | — | 0.989 temp_icon: 1.029 | 0.781 temp_icon: 1.067 | 1.293 temp_aifs: 1.358 | 0.990 temp_aifs: 1.408 | 1.689 temp_aifs: 1.855 |
|
v2026-05-17_173719_phase2cv2026-05-24_141820_phase2c |
744 | — | 0.983 temp_gem: 1.060 | 0.957 temp_icon: 0.615 | 1.021 temp_icon: 1.136 | 1.454 temp_icon: 1.929 | 1.589 temp_aifs: 1.843 |
|
v2026-05-14_220930_phase2cv2026-05-17_173719_phase2c |
432 | — | 0.474 temp_aifs: 0.507 | 0.515 temp_aifs: 0.611 | 0.787 temp_ukmo: 0.697 | 0.508 temp_gem: 0.683 | 0.544 temp_aifs: 0.680 |
|
v2026-05-14_220930_phase2cv2026-05-17_173719_phase2c |
240 | — | 0.663 temp_ecmwf: 0.379 | 0.636 temp_gem: 0.563 | 0.797 temp_ecmwf: 0.490 | — | — |
By actual NWP forecast lead (6h buckets)
Same data grouped by ValidTime − freshest contributing NWP cycle (6h buckets) instead of trained-lead label. Reveals MAE structure within a trained bucket once predict spread to hourly outputs (2026-05-04+). Buckets start at the trained lead — earlier figures measured from the cron-fire time, which made offset-day models look like sub-lead forecasts.
| Run (UTC) | 0-5h | 6-11h | 12-17h | 18-23h | 24-29h | 30-35h | 36-41h | 42-47h | 48-53h | 54-59h | 60-65h | 66-71h | 72-77h | 78-83h | 84-89h | 90-95h | 96-101h | 102-107h | 108-113h | 114-119h | 120-125h | 126-131h | 132-137h | 138-143h | 144-149h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 1.335 | 1.884 | 1.177 | 2.018 | 1.855 | 1.742 | 0.859 | 1.023 | 1.054 | 1.050 | 1.430 | 1.686 | 1.656 | 1.320 | 1.340 | 1.585 | 1.629 | 1.301 | 1.595 | 1.724 | 2.082 | 1.506 | — | |
| — | — | 1.907 | 1.970 | 1.751 | 2.327 | 2.560 | 2.397 | 1.039 | 1.591 | 1.651 | 1.561 | 1.896 | 2.786 | 2.820 | 1.433 | 2.012 | 1.890 | 2.574 | 1.876 | 1.649 | 2.232 | 2.476 | 1.597 | — | |
| — | — | 1.701 | 1.796 | 1.746 | 2.069 | 2.183 | 1.461 | 0.835 | 1.187 | 1.385 | 0.996 | 1.259 | 1.716 | 1.771 | 1.273 | 1.445 | 2.181 | 2.472 | 1.791 | 1.562 | 1.855 | 2.224 | 1.345 | — | |
| — | — | 2.031 | 1.494 | 1.833 | 1.939 | 2.162 | 1.042 | 1.003 | 1.260 | 1.499 | 1.067 | 1.314 | 1.357 | 1.671 | 0.311 | 1.872 | 0.952 | 3.843 | 1.833 | 2.123 | 2.753 | 3.239 | 1.384 | 3.137 | |
| — | — | 2.295 | 1.667 | 2.037 | 1.295 | 3.613 | 1.789 | 1.748 | 2.652 | 2.984 | 1.033 | 2.140 | 3.414 | 3.623 | 1.690 | 2.959 | 4.297 | 4.667 | 2.145 | 2.662 | 3.421 | 4.067 | 1.738 | 3.137 | |
| — | — | 2.103 | 2.004 | 2.063 | 3.006 | 3.120 | 1.793 | 1.632 | 2.320 | 2.777 | 1.225 | 2.181 | 3.472 | 4.016 | 2.533 | 3.369 | 2.709 | 3.168 | 2.405 | 1.874 | 2.648 | 3.068 | 2.164 | 3.137 | |
| — | — | 1.837 | 2.314 | 2.332 | 3.072 | 1.514 | 1.322 | 0.822 | 1.062 | 1.281 | 1.448 | 1.374 | 1.568 | 1.956 | 1.296 | 1.529 | 2.048 | 2.466 | 1.716 | 1.502 | 1.794 | 2.341 | 1.030 | — | |
| — | — | 0.825 | 0.694 | 0.665 | 0.863 | 1.026 | 0.852 | 0.438 | 0.501 | 0.490 | 0.416 | 0.878 | 0.824 | 1.134 | 0.566 | 1.112 | 0.401 | 1.581 | 1.084 | 1.432 | 1.465 | 1.470 | 0.958 | — | |
| — | — | 0.721 | 0.450 | 0.425 | 0.363 | 3.238 | 1.672 | 1.817 | 2.667 | 2.396 | 1.003 | 2.106 | 2.586 | 2.131 | 1.096 | 2.450 | 2.641 | 2.088 | 1.379 | 1.683 | 1.819 | 1.776 | 1.280 | — | |
| — | — | 3.520 | 3.011 | 3.439 | 5.328 | 6.018 | 3.470 | 3.447 | 5.805 | 5.910 | 2.409 | 4.445 | 6.314 | 5.837 | 4.552 | 5.981 | 5.461 | 5.354 | 4.584 | 3.347 | 4.985 | 5.347 | 4.161 | — | |
| — | — | 2.115 | 1.763 | 2.406 | 1.210 | 1.350 | 0.966 | 0.903 | 1.272 | 1.223 | 0.678 | 1.095 | 1.364 | 1.334 | 0.828 | 1.612 | 2.348 | 2.626 | 2.225 | 1.653 | 2.771 | 2.542 | 2.107 | — | |
| — | — | 0.783 | 0.266 | 0.805 | 0.658 | 0.478 | 0.333 | 0.539 | 0.591 | 0.269 | 0.407 | 0.800 | 0.551 | 0.278 | 0.436 | 1.307 | 1.040 | 0.974 | 0.640 | 0.903 | 0.923 | 0.640 | 0.916 | — | |
| — | — | 0.822 | 0.417 | 0.898 | 0.663 | 0.753 | 0.582 | 0.498 | 0.569 | 0.553 | 0.730 | 0.580 | 0.687 | 0.874 | 0.689 | 0.837 | 1.019 | 1.011 | 0.619 | 0.978 | 1.153 | 0.871 | 1.381 | — | |
| — | — | — | — | 0.407 | 0.360 | 0.404 | 0.367 | 0.418 | 0.445 | 0.371 | 0.258 | 0.413 | 0.580 | 0.859 | 1.079 | 1.108 | 1.522 | 0.675 | 0.665 | 0.595 | 0.643 | 0.802 | 1.243 | — | |
| — | — | — | — | 0.485 | 0.351 | 0.368 | 0.257 | 0.424 | 0.646 | 0.692 | 0.577 | 0.440 | 0.597 | 0.641 | 0.511 | 0.592 | 0.640 | 0.856 | 0.824 | 0.619 | 0.572 | 0.668 | 0.845 | — | |
| — | — | — | — | 0.341 | 0.372 | 0.392 | 0.332 | 0.485 | 0.782 | 0.878 | 0.701 | 0.506 | 0.680 | 0.699 | 0.771 | 0.554 | 0.881 | 1.301 | 1.491 | 0.705 | 0.626 | 0.743 | 0.608 | — | |
| — | — | — | — | 0.341 | 0.320 | 0.255 | 0.101 | 0.349 | 0.452 | 0.221 | 0.183 | 0.652 | 0.395 | 0.645 | 0.434 | 0.628 | 0.537 | 0.673 | 0.450 | 0.696 | 0.626 | 0.743 | 0.608 | — | |
| — | — | — | — | 0.312 | 0.100 | 0.576 | 0.201 | 0.565 | 0.557 | 0.593 | 0.454 | 0.740 | 0.625 | 0.748 | 0.456 | 0.704 | 0.457 | 0.672 | 0.278 | 0.769 | 0.526 | 0.506 | 0.263 | — | |
| — | — | — | — | 1.053 | 0.915 | 0.673 | 0.119 | 0.786 | 0.742 | 0.929 | 0.827 | 1.320 | 1.085 | 1.698 | 0.573 | 1.055 | 0.279 | 1.498 | 1.113 | 1.487 | 2.063 | 2.483 | 1.609 | — | |
| 1.660 | 1.307 | 1.188 | 0.936 | 0.798 | 0.807 | 0.904 | 1.026 | 0.423 | 0.286 | 0.918 | 1.018 | 1.144 | 1.380 | 1.411 | 1.449 | 1.079 | 1.331 | 1.393 | 1.474 | 1.660 | 2.354 | 2.025 | 1.871 | — | |
| 0.203 | 0.251 | 0.476 | 0.496 | 0.421 | 0.587 | 0.449 | 0.508 | 0.521 | 0.667 | 0.769 | 0.895 | 0.855 | 0.798 | 0.796 | 0.674 | 0.481 | 0.202 | 0.649 | 0.584 | 0.552 | 0.512 | 0.400 | 0.548 | — | |
| 0.254 | 0.523 | 1.397 | 0.440 | 0.487 | 0.428 | 0.478 | 0.594 | 0.595 | 0.793 | 0.871 | 0.558 | 0.644 | 1.280 | 0.738 | 1.260 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |