Rain +48h
NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.
NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon
Chards Snowdon Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Fri 19 Jun 6%
6% at 22Z
Sat 20 Jun 4%
2% at 14Z
Sun 21 Jun 2%
2% at 08Z
Mon 22 Jun 3%
2% at 03Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
06-20 00Z 7%
14%
06-20 01Z 4%
0%
06-20 02Z 8%
29%
06-20 03Z 8%
29%
06-20 04Z 11%
43%
06-20 05Z 8%
43%
06-20 06Z 6%
29%
06-20 07Z 6%
29%
06-20 08Z 6%
29%
06-20 09Z 4%
29%
06-20 10Z 5%
29%
06-20 11Z 6%
29%
06-20 12Z 3%
14%
06-20 13Z 3%
14%
06-20 14Z 2%
0%
06-20 15Z 2%
0%
06-20 16Z 3%
14%
06-20 17Z 3%
14%
06-20 18Z 3%
14%
06-20 19Z 2%
0%
06-20 20Z 3%
14%
06-20 21Z 4%
14%
06-20 22Z 2%
0%
06-20 23Z 2%
0%
06-21 00Z 2%
0%
06-21 01Z 2%
0%
06-21 02Z 2%
0%
06-21 03Z 2%
0%
06-21 04Z 2%
0%
06-21 05Z 2%
0%
06-21 06Z 2%
0%
06-21 07Z 2%
0%
06-21 08Z 2%
0%
06-21 09Z 2%
0%
06-21 10Z 2%
0%
06-21 11Z 2%
0%
06-21 12Z 2%
0%
06-21 13Z 2%
0%
06-21 14Z 2%
0%
06-21 15Z 2%
0%
06-21 16Z 2%
0%
06-21 17Z 3%
0%
06-21 18Z 2%
0%
06-21 19Z 3%
0%
06-21 20Z 2%
0%
06-21 21Z 2%
0%
06-21 22Z 2%
0%
06-21 23Z 2%
0%
06-22 00Z 2%
0%
06-22 01Z 2%
0%
06-22 02Z 2%
0%
06-22 03Z 2%
0%
06-22 04Z 2%
0%
06-22 05Z 2%
0%
06-22 06Z 2%
0%
06-22 07Z 2%
0%
06-22 08Z 4%
14%
06-22 09Z 6%
14%
06-22 10Z 3%
0%
06-22 11Z 3%
0%
06-22 12Z 3%
0%
06-22 13Z 3%
0%
06-22 14Z 3%
0%
06-22 15Z 3%
0%
06-22 16Z 3%
0%
06-22 17Z 3%
0%
06-22 18Z 6%
14%
06-22 19Z 3%
0%
06-22 20Z 3%
0%
06-22 21Z 3%
0%
06-22 22Z 3%
0%
06-22 23Z 2%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 5%
at 12Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
06-20 22Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-20 23Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 00Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 01Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 02Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 03Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 06Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 07Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 08Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 09Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 10Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 11Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 12Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 14Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 15Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 17Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 19Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 20Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 21Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 22Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 23Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 00Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 01Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 02Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 03Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 05Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 06Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 08Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 09Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 10Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 11Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 12Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 13Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 14Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 15Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 16Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 17Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 18Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 19Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 20Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 21Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 22Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 23Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
Goren
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Fri 19 Jun 7%
7% at 23Z
Sat 20 Jun 7%
2% at 14Z
Sun 21 Jun 2%
2% at 12Z
Mon 22 Jun 2%
2% at 01Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
06-20 00Z 7%
14%
06-20 01Z 4%
0%
06-20 02Z 13%
29%
06-20 03Z 14%
29%
06-20 04Z 14%
43%
06-20 05Z 14%
43%
06-20 06Z 10%
29%
06-20 07Z 10%
29%
06-20 08Z 10%
29%
06-20 09Z 8%
29%
06-20 10Z 7%
29%
06-20 11Z 7%
29%
06-20 12Z 4%
14%
06-20 13Z 4%
14%
06-20 14Z 2%
0%
06-20 15Z 2%
0%
06-20 16Z 4%
14%
06-20 17Z 4%
14%
06-20 18Z 5%
14%
06-20 19Z 2%
0%
06-20 20Z 5%
14%
06-20 21Z 5%
14%
06-20 22Z 2%
0%
06-20 23Z 2%
0%
06-21 00Z 2%
0%
06-21 01Z 2%
0%
06-21 02Z 2%
0%
06-21 03Z 2%
0%
06-21 04Z 2%
0%
06-21 05Z 2%
0%
06-21 06Z 2%
0%
06-21 07Z 2%
0%
06-21 08Z 2%
0%
06-21 09Z 2%
0%
06-21 10Z 2%
0%
06-21 11Z 2%
0%
06-21 12Z 2%
0%
06-21 13Z 2%
0%
06-21 14Z 2%
0%
06-21 15Z 2%
0%
06-21 16Z 2%
0%
06-21 17Z 2%
0%
06-21 18Z 2%
0%
06-21 19Z 2%
0%
06-21 20Z 2%
0%
06-21 21Z 2%
0%
06-21 22Z 2%
0%
06-21 23Z 2%
0%
06-22 00Z 2%
0%
06-22 01Z 2%
0%
06-22 02Z 2%
0%
06-22 03Z 2%
0%
06-22 04Z 2%
0%
06-22 05Z 2%
0%
06-22 06Z 2%
0%
06-22 07Z 2%
0%
06-22 08Z 5%
14%
06-22 09Z 5%
14%
06-22 10Z 2%
0%
06-22 11Z 2%
0%
06-22 12Z 2%
0%
06-22 13Z 2%
0%
06-22 14Z 2%
0%
06-22 15Z 2%
0%
06-22 16Z 2%
0%
06-22 17Z 2%
0%
06-22 18Z 5%
14%
06-22 19Z 2%
0%
06-22 20Z 2%
0%
06-22 21Z 2%
0%
06-22 22Z 2%
0%
06-22 23Z 2%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 16%
at 17Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
06-20 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-20 23Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 00Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 01Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 02Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 03Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 11Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 12Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 14Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 15Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 17Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 23Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 00Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 01Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 02Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 03Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 04Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 05Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 08Z 14%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 09Z 14%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 10Z 15%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 11Z 15%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 12Z 16%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 13Z 16%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 14Z 16%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 15Z 16%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 16Z 16%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 17Z 16%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 18Z 16%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 19Z 16%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 20Z 15%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 21Z 14%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 22Z 14%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 23Z 13%
2%
0%
0%
Raymonds Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Fri 19 Jun 6%
6% at 22Z
Sat 20 Jun 8%
3% at 14Z
Sun 21 Jun 3%
3% at 07Z
Mon 22 Jun 4%
3% at 04Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
06-20 00Z 6%
14%
06-20 01Z 5%
0%
06-20 02Z 13%
29%
06-20 03Z 14%
29%
06-20 04Z 17%
43%
06-20 05Z 15%
43%
06-20 06Z 12%
29%
06-20 07Z 11%
29%
06-20 08Z 10%
29%
06-20 09Z 9%
29%
06-20 10Z 9%
29%
06-20 11Z 9%
29%
06-20 12Z 5%
14%
06-20 13Z 5%
14%
06-20 14Z 3%
0%
06-20 15Z 3%
0%
06-20 16Z 5%
14%
06-20 17Z 5%
14%
06-20 18Z 5%
14%
06-20 19Z 3%
0%
06-20 20Z 6%
14%
06-20 21Z 6%
14%
06-20 22Z 3%
0%
06-20 23Z 3%
0%
06-21 00Z 3%
0%
06-21 01Z 3%
0%
06-21 02Z 3%
0%
06-21 03Z 3%
0%
06-21 04Z 3%
0%
06-21 05Z 3%
0%
06-21 06Z 3%
0%
06-21 07Z 3%
0%
06-21 08Z 3%
0%
06-21 09Z 3%
0%
06-21 10Z 3%
0%
06-21 11Z 3%
0%
06-21 12Z 3%
0%
06-21 13Z 3%
0%
06-21 14Z 3%
0%
06-21 15Z 3%
0%
06-21 16Z 3%
0%
06-21 17Z 3%
0%
06-21 18Z 3%
0%
06-21 19Z 3%
0%
06-21 20Z 3%
0%
06-21 21Z 3%
0%
06-21 22Z 3%
0%
06-21 23Z 3%
0%
06-22 00Z 3%
0%
06-22 01Z 3%
0%
06-22 02Z 3%
0%
06-22 03Z 3%
0%
06-22 04Z 3%
0%
06-22 05Z 3%
0%
06-22 06Z 3%
0%
06-22 07Z 3%
0%
06-22 08Z 7%
14%
06-22 09Z 7%
14%
06-22 10Z 3%
0%
06-22 11Z 3%
0%
06-22 12Z 3%
0%
06-22 13Z 3%
0%
06-22 14Z 3%
0%
06-22 15Z 3%
0%
06-22 16Z 3%
0%
06-22 17Z 3%
0%
06-22 18Z 7%
14%
06-22 19Z 3%
0%
06-22 20Z 3%
0%
06-22 21Z 3%
0%
06-22 22Z 3%
0%
06-22 23Z 3%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 10%
at 17Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
06-20 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-20 23Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 00Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 01Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 02Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 03Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 11Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 12Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 14Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 15Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 17Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 23Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 00Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 01Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 02Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 03Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 04Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 05Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-22 08Z 9%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 09Z 9%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 10Z 9%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 11Z 9%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 12Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 13Z 10%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 14Z 10%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 15Z 10%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 16Z 10%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 17Z 10%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 18Z 10%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 19Z 10%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 20Z 9%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 21Z 9%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 22Z 7%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 23Z 6%
1%
0%
0%
Membury village — best estimate of rain at the village
(EA gauge forecasts × on-site calibration)
Weighted composite of the three gauge forecasts above:
0.51·Goren + 0.31·Chards Snowdon Hill + 0.13·Raymonds Hill, fitted 2026-06-10 against the village's own
daily gauge (42 months). The village receives ~7% less rain than the
raw gauge average. Band edges assume the gauges co-vary
(they correlate at r ≈ 0.95); no exceedance table here because
threshold probabilities don't combine across gauges.
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 12%
at 17Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Predicted 09Z→09Z daily totals (sum of hourly village medians, at +48h)
Rain-day (09Z→09Z) Predicted total Sat 20 Jun 0.3 mm Sun 21 Jun 0.2 mm
NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Membury, East Devon