WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Membury, East Devon

Rain +48h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon

Chards Snowdon Hill

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
4% 1% at 14Z
29% 2% at 21Z
5% 1% at 15Z
19% 3% at 20Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
19% 43%
33% 57%
44% 57%
59% 71%
59% 71%
65% 86%
54% 86%
70% 86%
60% 86%
51% 86%
44% 57%
46% 57%
23% 43%
7% 14%
6% 14%
6% 14%
7% 14%
6% 14%
6% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
5% 14%
6% 14%
1% 0%
2% 0%
3% 14%
2% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
3% 14%
1% 0%
1% 0%
2% 14%
2% 14%
6% 29%
14% 57%
14% 71%
14% 57%
28% 71%
20% 57%
22% 57%
15% 43%
10% 29%
12% 29%
7% 14%
7% 14%
9% 14%
17% 43%
20% 43%
27% 57%
41% 71%
43% 86%
50% 100%
51% 86%
39% 71%
27% 57%
13% 29%
14% 29%
14% 29%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

5.1 mm total (sum of hourly medians) · wettest hour : 0.8 mm/h (80% band 0.0–3.6) · 63% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time P≥0.1 P≥1 P≥5 P≥10
58% 36% 6% 1%
63% 35% 5% 1%
62% 34% 5% 1%
62% 31% 4% 1%
60% 18% 1% 0%
51% 21% 2% 0%
48% 10% 0% 0%
35% 7% 0% 0%
27% 3% 0% 0%
7% 1% 0% 0%
6% 1% 0% 0%
5% 1% 0% 0%
5% 1% 0% 0%
4% 1% 0% 0%
5% 1% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
4% 1% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
13% 3% 0% 0%
17% 4% 0% 0%
25% 8% 0% 0%
23% 7% 0% 0%
24% 6% 0% 0%
26% 4% 0% 0%

Goren

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
6% 2% at 10Z
23% 2% at 19Z
7% 2% at 15Z
19% 2% at 23Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
15% 43%
23% 57%
21% 57%
30% 71%
42% 71%
54% 86%
56% 86%
63% 86%
58% 86%
48% 86%
39% 57%
38% 57%
21% 43%
5% 14%
5% 14%
4% 14%
4% 14%
4% 14%
4% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
4% 14%
4% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%
4% 14%
3% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
4% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%
4% 14%
4% 14%
8% 29%
18% 57%
27% 71%
17% 57%
25% 71%
20% 57%
14% 57%
16% 43%
18% 29%
17% 29%
6% 14%
7% 14%
7% 14%
20% 43%
18% 43%
22% 57%
38% 71%
48% 86%
63% 100%
56% 86%
36% 71%
19% 57%
13% 29%
13% 29%
13% 29%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

4.9 mm total (sum of hourly medians) · wettest hour : 0.7 mm/h (80% band 0.0–3.7) · 71% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time P≥0.1 P≥1 P≥5 P≥10
51% 30% 7% 2%
64% 33% 7% 2%
64% 31% 5% 2%
71% 33% 6% 2%
65% 19% 2% 0%
62% 25% 3% 1%
56% 14% 1% 0%
52% 12% 1% 0%
25% 4% 0% 0%
12% 2% 0% 0%
10% 1% 0% 0%
7% 1% 0% 0%
5% 1% 0% 0%
5% 1% 0% 0%
5% 1% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
3% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
8% 2% 0% 0%
29% 6% 0% 0%
31% 9% 1% 0%
34% 10% 1% 0%
35% 8% 0% 0%
26% 4% 0% 0%

Raymonds Hill

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
5% 2% at 13Z
28% 2% at 21Z
9% 1% at 09Z
19% 2% at 23Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
19% 43%
32% 57%
35% 57%
48% 71%
52% 71%
59% 86%
62% 86%
68% 86%
64% 86%
62% 86%
53% 57%
44% 57%
25% 43%
6% 14%
6% 14%
5% 14%
4% 14%
4% 14%
5% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
4% 14%
4% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%
4% 14%
2% 0%
1% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
3% 14%
1% 0%
1% 0%
3% 14%
3% 14%
7% 29%
19% 57%
39% 71%
27% 57%
41% 71%
37% 57%
25% 57%
13% 43%
13% 29%
15% 29%
8% 14%
8% 14%
8% 14%
17% 43%
19% 43%
29% 57%
38% 71%
51% 86%
56% 100%
48% 86%
35% 71%
25% 57%
13% 29%
12% 29%
12% 29%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%

How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)

5.5 mm total (sum of hourly medians) · wettest hour : 0.9 mm/h (80% band 0.0–5.7) · 75% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time P≥0.1 P≥1 P≥5 P≥10
75% 43% 12% 5%
69% 39% 10% 4%
60% 33% 9% 3%
67% 31% 6% 2%
67% 21% 2% 0%
66% 27% 4% 1%
58% 17% 1% 0%
42% 12% 1% 0%
25% 5% 0% 0%
7% 1% 0% 0%
8% 1% 0% 0%
8% 1% 0% 0%
6% 1% 0% 0%
6% 1% 0% 0%
7% 1% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
5% 1% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
1% 0% 0% 0%
2% 0% 0% 0%
3% 1% 0% 0%
7% 2% 0% 0%
25% 7% 1% 0%
30% 10% 1% 0%
29% 10% 1% 0%
30% 9% 1% 0%
28% 5% 0% 0%

Membury village — best estimate of rain at the village (EA gauge forecasts × on-site calibration)

Weighted composite of the three gauge forecasts above: 0.51·Goren + 0.31·Chards Snowdon Hill + 0.13·Raymonds Hill, fitted 2026-06-10 against the village's own daily gauge (42 months). The village receives ~7% less rain than the raw gauge average. Band edges assume the gauges co-vary (they correlate at r ≈ 0.95); no exceedance table here because threshold probabilities don't combine across gauges.

4.8 mm total (sum of hourly medians) · wettest hour : 0.7 mm/h (80% band 0.0–3.8) · 68% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.

Predicted 09Z→09Z daily totals (sum of hourly village medians, at +48h)
Rain-day (09Z→09Z)Predicted total
4.8 mm
1.2 mm

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Membury, East Devon