Rain +72h
NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.
NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon
Chards Snowdon Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Mon 03 Aug 7%
7% at 23Z
Tue 04 Aug 15%
3% at 21Z
Wed 05 Aug 5%
2% at 23Z
Thu 06 Aug 3%
2% at 17Z
Fri 07 Aug 2%
2% at 08Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
08-04 00Z 9%
14%
08-04 01Z 14%
29%
08-04 02Z 12%
14%
08-04 03Z 13%
14%
08-04 04Z 22%
43%
08-04 05Z 22%
43%
08-04 06Z 20%
43%
08-04 07Z 32%
57%
08-04 08Z 25%
43%
08-04 09Z 24%
43%
08-04 10Z 24%
57%
08-04 11Z 24%
57%
08-04 12Z 23%
43%
08-04 13Z 18%
29%
08-04 14Z 11%
14%
08-04 15Z 10%
14%
08-04 16Z 11%
14%
08-04 17Z 11%
14%
08-04 18Z 12%
14%
08-04 19Z 4%
0%
08-04 20Z 5%
0%
08-04 21Z 3%
0%
08-04 22Z 4%
0%
08-04 23Z 4%
0%
08-05 00Z 5%
0%
08-05 01Z 10%
29%
08-05 02Z 10%
29%
08-05 03Z 9%
14%
08-05 04Z 3%
0%
08-05 05Z 4%
0%
08-05 06Z 3%
0%
08-05 07Z 6%
14%
08-05 08Z 6%
14%
08-05 09Z 6%
14%
08-05 10Z 6%
14%
08-05 11Z 6%
14%
08-05 12Z 6%
14%
08-05 13Z 3%
0%
08-05 14Z 6%
14%
08-05 15Z 6%
14%
08-05 16Z 5%
14%
08-05 17Z 5%
14%
08-05 18Z 5%
14%
08-05 19Z 2%
0%
08-05 20Z 3%
0%
08-05 21Z 3%
0%
08-05 22Z 3%
0%
08-05 23Z 2%
0%
08-06 00Z 2%
0%
08-06 01Z 2%
0%
08-06 02Z 2%
0%
08-06 03Z 2%
0%
08-06 04Z 2%
0%
08-06 05Z 2%
0%
08-06 06Z 2%
0%
08-06 07Z 2%
0%
08-06 08Z 4%
14%
08-06 09Z 4%
14%
08-06 10Z 4%
14%
08-06 11Z 4%
14%
08-06 12Z 4%
14%
08-06 13Z 2%
0%
08-06 14Z 2%
0%
08-06 15Z 2%
0%
08-06 16Z 2%
0%
08-06 17Z 2%
0%
08-06 18Z 2%
0%
08-06 19Z 2%
0%
08-06 20Z 2%
0%
08-06 21Z 2%
0%
08-06 22Z 2%
0%
08-06 23Z 2%
0%
08-07 00Z 2%
0%
08-07 01Z 2%
0%
08-07 02Z 2%
0%
08-07 03Z 2%
0%
08-07 04Z 2%
0%
08-07 05Z 2%
0%
08-07 06Z 2%
0%
08-07 07Z 2%
0%
08-07 08Z 2%
0%
08-07 09Z 2%
0%
08-07 10Z 2%
0%
08-07 11Z 2%
0%
08-07 12Z 2%
0%
08-07 13Z 2%
0%
08-07 14Z 4%
14%
08-07 15Z 2%
0%
08-07 16Z 2%
0%
08-07 17Z 2%
0%
08-07 18Z 2%
0%
08-07 19Z 2%
0%
08-07 20Z 2%
0%
08-07 21Z 2%
0%
08-07 22Z 2%
0%
08-07 23Z 2%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 10%
at 08Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
08-04 23Z 7%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 00Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 01Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 02Z 6%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 03Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 05Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 07Z 8%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 08Z 10%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 09Z 4%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 10Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 11Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 12Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 13Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 14Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 15Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 16Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 23Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 00Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 01Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 02Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 03Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 08Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 09Z 4%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 10Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 11Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 12Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 13Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 14Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 15Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 23Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 00Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 01Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 02Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 03Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 11Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 12Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 14Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 15Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 23Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
Goren
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Mon 03 Aug 13%
13% at 23Z
Tue 04 Aug 14%
9% at 18Z
Wed 05 Aug 7%
3% at 19Z
Thu 06 Aug 4%
3% at 18Z
Fri 07 Aug 4%
3% at 17Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
08-04 00Z 11%
14%
08-04 01Z 14%
29%
08-04 02Z 11%
14%
08-04 03Z 13%
14%
08-04 04Z 17%
43%
08-04 05Z 19%
43%
08-04 06Z 17%
43%
08-04 07Z 20%
57%
08-04 08Z 17%
43%
08-04 09Z 15%
43%
08-04 10Z 15%
57%
08-04 11Z 15%
57%
08-04 12Z 20%
43%
08-04 13Z 16%
29%
08-04 14Z 10%
14%
08-04 15Z 10%
14%
08-04 16Z 10%
14%
08-04 17Z 10%
14%
08-04 18Z 9%
14%
08-04 19Z 12%
0%
08-04 20Z 13%
0%
08-04 21Z 14%
0%
08-04 22Z 13%
0%
08-04 23Z 12%
0%
08-05 00Z 6%
0%
08-05 01Z 11%
29%
08-05 02Z 11%
29%
08-05 03Z 9%
14%
08-05 04Z 6%
0%
08-05 05Z 8%
0%
08-05 06Z 6%
0%
08-05 07Z 7%
14%
08-05 08Z 7%
14%
08-05 09Z 6%
14%
08-05 10Z 7%
14%
08-05 11Z 8%
14%
08-05 12Z 8%
14%
08-05 13Z 4%
0%
08-05 14Z 6%
14%
08-05 15Z 6%
14%
08-05 16Z 6%
14%
08-05 17Z 6%
14%
08-05 18Z 6%
14%
08-05 19Z 3%
0%
08-05 20Z 5%
0%
08-05 21Z 6%
0%
08-05 22Z 6%
0%
08-05 23Z 6%
0%
08-06 00Z 3%
0%
08-06 01Z 3%
0%
08-06 02Z 3%
0%
08-06 03Z 3%
0%
08-06 04Z 3%
0%
08-06 05Z 3%
0%
08-06 06Z 3%
0%
08-06 07Z 3%
0%
08-06 08Z 5%
14%
08-06 09Z 5%
14%
08-06 10Z 5%
14%
08-06 11Z 5%
14%
08-06 12Z 5%
14%
08-06 13Z 3%
0%
08-06 14Z 3%
0%
08-06 15Z 3%
0%
08-06 16Z 3%
0%
08-06 17Z 3%
0%
08-06 18Z 3%
0%
08-06 19Z 3%
0%
08-06 20Z 5%
0%
08-06 21Z 5%
0%
08-06 22Z 5%
0%
08-06 23Z 6%
0%
08-07 00Z 3%
0%
08-07 01Z 4%
0%
08-07 02Z 4%
0%
08-07 03Z 4%
0%
08-07 04Z 4%
0%
08-07 05Z 4%
0%
08-07 06Z 4%
0%
08-07 07Z 3%
0%
08-07 08Z 3%
0%
08-07 09Z 3%
0%
08-07 10Z 3%
0%
08-07 11Z 3%
0%
08-07 12Z 3%
0%
08-07 13Z 3%
0%
08-07 14Z 5%
14%
08-07 15Z 3%
0%
08-07 16Z 3%
0%
08-07 17Z 3%
0%
08-07 18Z 3%
0%
08-07 19Z 3%
0%
08-07 20Z 5%
0%
08-07 21Z 6%
0%
08-07 22Z 6%
0%
08-07 23Z 6%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 10%
at 01Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
08-04 23Z 6%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 00Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 01Z 10%
2%
0%
0%
08-05 02Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
08-05 03Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 04Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 05Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 06Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 07Z 9%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 08Z 8%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 09Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 10Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 11Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 12Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 14Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 15Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 16Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 17Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 18Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 23Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 00Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 01Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 02Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 03Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 04Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 08Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 09Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 10Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 11Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 12Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 14Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 15Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 16Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 23Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 00Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 01Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 02Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 03Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 04Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 05Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 06Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 07Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 10Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 11Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 12Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 13Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 14Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 15Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 22Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 23Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
Raymonds Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Mon 03 Aug 6%
6% at 23Z
Tue 04 Aug 13%
5% at 20Z
Wed 05 Aug 5%
3% at 23Z
Thu 06 Aug 3%
2% at 17Z
Fri 07 Aug 2%
2% at 17Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
08-04 00Z 8%
14%
08-04 01Z 17%
29%
08-04 02Z 10%
14%
08-04 03Z 11%
14%
08-04 04Z 22%
43%
08-04 05Z 22%
43%
08-04 06Z 21%
43%
08-04 07Z 25%
57%
08-04 08Z 23%
43%
08-04 09Z 20%
43%
08-04 10Z 16%
57%
08-04 11Z 14%
57%
08-04 12Z 13%
43%
08-04 13Z 12%
29%
08-04 14Z 9%
14%
08-04 15Z 8%
14%
08-04 16Z 10%
14%
08-04 17Z 10%
14%
08-04 18Z 11%
14%
08-04 19Z 6%
0%
08-04 20Z 5%
0%
08-04 21Z 5%
0%
08-04 22Z 6%
0%
08-04 23Z 6%
0%
08-05 00Z 6%
0%
08-05 01Z 12%
29%
08-05 02Z 12%
29%
08-05 03Z 8%
14%
08-05 04Z 6%
0%
08-05 05Z 6%
0%
08-05 06Z 5%
0%
08-05 07Z 5%
14%
08-05 08Z 5%
14%
08-05 09Z 4%
14%
08-05 10Z 4%
14%
08-05 11Z 4%
14%
08-05 12Z 4%
14%
08-05 13Z 3%
0%
08-05 14Z 3%
14%
08-05 15Z 3%
14%
08-05 16Z 3%
14%
08-05 17Z 3%
14%
08-05 18Z 3%
14%
08-05 19Z 3%
0%
08-05 20Z 3%
0%
08-05 21Z 3%
0%
08-05 22Z 3%
0%
08-05 23Z 3%
0%
08-06 00Z 3%
0%
08-06 01Z 3%
0%
08-06 02Z 2%
0%
08-06 03Z 2%
0%
08-06 04Z 2%
0%
08-06 05Z 2%
0%
08-06 06Z 2%
0%
08-06 07Z 2%
0%
08-06 08Z 3%
14%
08-06 09Z 3%
14%
08-06 10Z 3%
14%
08-06 11Z 3%
14%
08-06 12Z 3%
14%
08-06 13Z 2%
0%
08-06 14Z 2%
0%
08-06 15Z 2%
0%
08-06 16Z 2%
0%
08-06 17Z 2%
0%
08-06 18Z 2%
0%
08-06 19Z 2%
0%
08-06 20Z 2%
0%
08-06 21Z 2%
0%
08-06 22Z 2%
0%
08-06 23Z 2%
0%
08-07 00Z 2%
0%
08-07 01Z 2%
0%
08-07 02Z 3%
0%
08-07 03Z 2%
0%
08-07 04Z 3%
0%
08-07 05Z 3%
0%
08-07 06Z 2%
0%
08-07 07Z 2%
0%
08-07 08Z 2%
0%
08-07 09Z 2%
0%
08-07 10Z 2%
0%
08-07 11Z 2%
0%
08-07 12Z 2%
0%
08-07 13Z 2%
0%
08-07 14Z 3%
14%
08-07 15Z 2%
0%
08-07 16Z 2%
0%
08-07 17Z 2%
0%
08-07 18Z 2%
0%
08-07 19Z 2%
0%
08-07 20Z 2%
0%
08-07 21Z 2%
0%
08-07 22Z 3%
0%
08-07 23Z 3%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 6%
at 07Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
08-04 23Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 00Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 01Z 6%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 02Z 6%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 03Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 04Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 05Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 06Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 07Z 6%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 08Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 09Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 11Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 12Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 14Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 15Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 23Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 00Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 01Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 02Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 03Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 08Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 09Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 12Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 13Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 14Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 15Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 23Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 00Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 01Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 02Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 03Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 05Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 11Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 12Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 13Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 14Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 15Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 23Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
Membury village — best estimate of rain at the village
(EA gauge forecasts × on-site calibration)
Weighted composite of the three gauge forecasts above:
0.51·Goren + 0.31·Chards Snowdon Hill + 0.13·Raymonds Hill, fitted 2026-06-10 against the village's own
daily gauge (42 months). The village receives ~7% less rain than the
raw gauge average. Band edges assume the gauges co-vary
(they correlate at r ≈ 0.95); no exceedance table here because
threshold probabilities don't combine across gauges.
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 8%
at 08Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Predicted 09Z→09Z daily totals (sum of hourly village medians, at +72h)
Rain-day (09Z→09Z) Predicted total Tue 04 Aug 0.6 mm Wed 05 Aug 0.3 mm Thu 06 Aug 0.2 mm
NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Membury, East Devon