Rain +72h
NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.
NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon
Chards Snowdon Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct 14%
2% at 04Z
Wed 07 Oct 25%
2% at 16Z
Thu 08 Oct 7%
2% at 17Z
Fri 09 Oct 20%
3% at 19Z
Sat 10 Oct 4%
2% at 17Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
10-07 00Z 52%
86%
10-07 01Z 47%
100%
10-07 02Z 51%
100%
10-07 03Z 58%
71%
10-07 04Z 51%
100%
10-07 05Z 54%
100%
10-07 06Z 48%
86%
10-07 07Z 26%
71%
10-07 08Z 42%
86%
10-07 09Z 33%
71%
10-07 10Z 31%
57%
10-07 11Z 33%
57%
10-07 12Z 35%
71%
10-07 13Z 11%
14%
10-07 14Z 8%
14%
10-07 15Z 3%
0%
10-07 16Z 2%
0%
10-07 17Z 2%
0%
10-07 18Z 3%
0%
10-07 19Z 2%
0%
10-07 20Z 3%
0%
10-07 21Z 2%
0%
10-07 22Z 3%
0%
10-07 23Z 3%
0%
10-08 00Z 2%
0%
10-08 01Z 2%
0%
10-08 02Z 2%
0%
10-08 03Z 2%
0%
10-08 04Z 2%
0%
10-08 05Z 2%
0%
10-08 06Z 2%
0%
10-08 07Z 2%
0%
10-08 08Z 2%
0%
10-08 09Z 2%
0%
10-08 10Z 2%
0%
10-08 11Z 2%
0%
10-08 12Z 2%
0%
10-08 13Z 2%
0%
10-08 14Z 2%
0%
10-08 15Z 2%
0%
10-08 16Z 2%
0%
10-08 17Z 2%
0%
10-08 18Z 2%
0%
10-08 19Z 15%
57%
10-08 20Z 16%
57%
10-08 21Z 23%
71%
10-08 22Z 38%
86%
10-08 23Z 42%
86%
10-09 00Z 36%
57%
10-09 01Z 39%
57%
10-09 02Z 32%
57%
10-09 03Z 25%
43%
10-09 04Z 23%
29%
10-09 05Z 23%
29%
10-09 06Z 24%
29%
10-09 07Z 21%
43%
10-09 08Z 20%
29%
10-09 09Z 20%
43%
10-09 10Z 26%
43%
10-09 11Z 26%
57%
10-09 12Z 30%
57%
10-09 13Z 28%
71%
10-09 14Z 35%
57%
10-09 15Z 28%
57%
10-09 16Z 13%
29%
10-09 17Z 13%
29%
10-09 18Z 10%
29%
10-09 19Z 3%
0%
10-09 20Z 3%
0%
10-09 21Z 4%
0%
10-09 22Z 4%
0%
10-09 23Z 4%
0%
10-10 00Z 3%
0%
10-10 01Z 3%
0%
10-10 02Z 4%
0%
10-10 03Z 3%
0%
10-10 04Z 4%
0%
10-10 05Z 4%
0%
10-10 06Z 4%
0%
10-10 07Z 10%
29%
10-10 08Z 10%
29%
10-10 09Z 10%
29%
10-10 10Z 8%
29%
10-10 11Z 8%
29%
10-10 12Z 7%
29%
10-10 13Z 3%
0%
10-10 14Z 3%
0%
10-10 15Z 2%
0%
10-10 16Z 3%
0%
10-10 17Z 2%
0%
10-10 18Z 2%
0%
10-10 19Z 2%
0%
10-10 20Z 3%
0%
10-10 21Z 3%
0%
10-10 22Z 3%
0%
10-10 23Z 3%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
4.7 mm total (sum of hourly medians)
· wettest hour 23Z :
0.3 mm/h
(80% band 0.0–1.4)
· 47% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
10-07 04Z 47%
7%
0%
0%
10-07 05Z 47%
7%
0%
0%
10-07 06Z 44%
6%
0%
0%
10-07 07Z 32%
5%
0%
0%
10-07 08Z 35%
6%
0%
0%
10-07 09Z 41%
7%
0%
0%
10-07 10Z 30%
4%
0%
0%
10-07 11Z 32%
5%
0%
0%
10-07 12Z 38%
8%
0%
0%
10-07 13Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 14Z 3%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 15Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 16Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 18Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 21Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 22Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 23Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 00Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 01Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 02Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 03Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 06Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 07Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 08Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 09Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 10Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 11Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 12Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 13Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 14Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 15Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 16Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 17Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 18Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 19Z 19%
3%
0%
0%
10-08 20Z 19%
3%
0%
0%
10-08 21Z 24%
5%
0%
0%
10-08 22Z 29%
9%
0%
0%
10-08 23Z 39%
15%
1%
0%
10-09 00Z 28%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 01Z 37%
6%
0%
0%
10-09 02Z 30%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 03Z 23%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 04Z 26%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 05Z 27%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 06Z 26%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 07Z 15%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 08Z 12%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 09Z 14%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 10Z 19%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 11Z 32%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 12Z 32%
9%
0%
0%
10-09 13Z 39%
15%
1%
0%
10-09 14Z 35%
13%
1%
0%
10-09 15Z 22%
6%
0%
0%
10-09 16Z 13%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 17Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 18Z 10%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-09 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-09 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-09 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-09 23Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
Goren
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct 15%
6% at 05Z
Wed 07 Oct 23%
5% at 15Z
Thu 08 Oct 6%
3% at 15Z
Fri 09 Oct 23%
6% at 19Z
Sat 10 Oct 9%
2% at 15Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
10-07 00Z 42%
86%
10-07 01Z 33%
100%
10-07 02Z 44%
100%
10-07 03Z 38%
71%
10-07 04Z 46%
100%
10-07 05Z 49%
100%
10-07 06Z 40%
86%
10-07 07Z 29%
71%
10-07 08Z 35%
86%
10-07 09Z 33%
71%
10-07 10Z 32%
57%
10-07 11Z 34%
57%
10-07 12Z 32%
71%
10-07 13Z 10%
14%
10-07 14Z 9%
14%
10-07 15Z 5%
0%
10-07 16Z 5%
0%
10-07 17Z 5%
0%
10-07 18Z 5%
0%
10-07 19Z 5%
0%
10-07 20Z 7%
0%
10-07 21Z 7%
0%
10-07 22Z 7%
0%
10-07 23Z 7%
0%
10-08 00Z 3%
0%
10-08 01Z 3%
0%
10-08 02Z 3%
0%
10-08 03Z 3%
0%
10-08 04Z 4%
0%
10-08 05Z 4%
0%
10-08 06Z 3%
0%
10-08 07Z 3%
0%
10-08 08Z 3%
0%
10-08 09Z 3%
0%
10-08 10Z 3%
0%
10-08 11Z 3%
0%
10-08 12Z 3%
0%
10-08 13Z 3%
0%
10-08 14Z 3%
0%
10-08 15Z 3%
0%
10-08 16Z 3%
0%
10-08 17Z 3%
0%
10-08 18Z 3%
0%
10-08 19Z 9%
57%
10-08 20Z 9%
57%
10-08 21Z 10%
71%
10-08 22Z 22%
86%
10-08 23Z 31%
86%
10-09 00Z 34%
57%
10-09 01Z 39%
57%
10-09 02Z 34%
57%
10-09 03Z 23%
43%
10-09 04Z 19%
29%
10-09 05Z 20%
29%
10-09 06Z 20%
29%
10-09 07Z 27%
43%
10-09 08Z 19%
29%
10-09 09Z 23%
43%
10-09 10Z 33%
43%
10-09 11Z 37%
57%
10-09 12Z 38%
57%
10-09 13Z 41%
71%
10-09 14Z 40%
57%
10-09 15Z 30%
57%
10-09 16Z 13%
29%
10-09 17Z 12%
29%
10-09 18Z 12%
29%
10-09 19Z 6%
0%
10-09 20Z 10%
0%
10-09 21Z 11%
0%
10-09 22Z 11%
0%
10-09 23Z 9%
0%
10-10 00Z 5%
0%
10-10 01Z 5%
0%
10-10 02Z 11%
0%
10-10 03Z 11%
0%
10-10 04Z 11%
0%
10-10 05Z 13%
0%
10-10 06Z 13%
0%
10-10 07Z 15%
29%
10-10 08Z 13%
29%
10-10 09Z 13%
29%
10-10 10Z 12%
29%
10-10 11Z 12%
29%
10-10 12Z 12%
29%
10-10 13Z 8%
0%
10-10 14Z 8%
0%
10-10 15Z 2%
0%
10-10 16Z 2%
0%
10-10 17Z 2%
0%
10-10 18Z 2%
0%
10-10 19Z 2%
0%
10-10 20Z 2%
0%
10-10 21Z 10%
0%
10-10 22Z 12%
0%
10-10 23Z 13%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
4.1 mm total (sum of hourly medians)
· wettest hour 23Z :
0.3 mm/h
(80% band 0.0–1.6)
· 46% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
10-07 04Z 37%
5%
0%
0%
10-07 05Z 40%
6%
0%
0%
10-07 06Z 36%
5%
0%
0%
10-07 07Z 26%
4%
0%
0%
10-07 08Z 28%
4%
0%
0%
10-07 09Z 37%
5%
0%
0%
10-07 10Z 31%
5%
0%
0%
10-07 11Z 31%
5%
0%
0%
10-07 12Z 40%
9%
0%
0%
10-07 13Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 14Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 15Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 16Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 17Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 18Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 19Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 20Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 21Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 22Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 23Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 00Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 01Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 02Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 03Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 09Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 10Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 11Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 12Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 13Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 14Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 15Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 16Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 17Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 18Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 19Z 20%
3%
0%
0%
10-08 20Z 24%
4%
0%
0%
10-08 21Z 29%
6%
0%
0%
10-08 22Z 42%
14%
2%
0%
10-08 23Z 44%
17%
2%
0%
10-09 00Z 30%
6%
0%
0%
10-09 01Z 32%
7%
0%
0%
10-09 02Z 33%
6%
0%
0%
10-09 03Z 24%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 04Z 27%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 05Z 27%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 06Z 26%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 07Z 21%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 08Z 14%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 09Z 17%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 10Z 19%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 11Z 30%
5%
0%
0%
10-09 12Z 36%
11%
1%
0%
10-09 13Z 46%
16%
2%
0%
10-09 14Z 36%
11%
1%
0%
10-09 15Z 22%
6%
0%
0%
10-09 16Z 17%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 17Z 13%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 18Z 12%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-09 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-09 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-09 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-09 23Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
Raymonds Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct 18%
5% at 09Z
Wed 07 Oct 26%
2% at 19Z
Thu 08 Oct 7%
2% at 14Z
Fri 09 Oct 20%
3% at 19Z
Sat 10 Oct 6%
2% at 15Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
10-07 00Z 54%
86%
10-07 01Z 42%
100%
10-07 02Z 49%
100%
10-07 03Z 49%
71%
10-07 04Z 50%
100%
10-07 05Z 57%
100%
10-07 06Z 45%
86%
10-07 07Z 39%
71%
10-07 08Z 55%
86%
10-07 09Z 54%
71%
10-07 10Z 38%
57%
10-07 11Z 37%
57%
10-07 12Z 24%
71%
10-07 13Z 8%
14%
10-07 14Z 6%
14%
10-07 15Z 3%
0%
10-07 16Z 3%
0%
10-07 17Z 3%
0%
10-07 18Z 3%
0%
10-07 19Z 2%
0%
10-07 20Z 2%
0%
10-07 21Z 2%
0%
10-07 22Z 2%
0%
10-07 23Z 3%
0%
10-08 00Z 2%
0%
10-08 01Z 2%
0%
10-08 02Z 2%
0%
10-08 03Z 3%
0%
10-08 04Z 3%
0%
10-08 05Z 3%
0%
10-08 06Z 3%
0%
10-08 07Z 3%
0%
10-08 08Z 3%
0%
10-08 09Z 2%
0%
10-08 10Z 2%
0%
10-08 11Z 2%
0%
10-08 12Z 2%
0%
10-08 13Z 2%
0%
10-08 14Z 2%
0%
10-08 15Z 2%
0%
10-08 16Z 2%
0%
10-08 17Z 2%
0%
10-08 18Z 2%
0%
10-08 19Z 11%
57%
10-08 20Z 18%
57%
10-08 21Z 18%
71%
10-08 22Z 37%
86%
10-08 23Z 46%
86%
10-09 00Z 41%
57%
10-09 01Z 32%
57%
10-09 02Z 29%
57%
10-09 03Z 28%
43%
10-09 04Z 29%
29%
10-09 05Z 27%
29%
10-09 06Z 25%
29%
10-09 07Z 15%
43%
10-09 08Z 19%
29%
10-09 09Z 19%
43%
10-09 10Z 27%
43%
10-09 11Z 27%
57%
10-09 12Z 29%
57%
10-09 13Z 29%
71%
10-09 14Z 26%
57%
10-09 15Z 16%
57%
10-09 16Z 12%
29%
10-09 17Z 12%
29%
10-09 18Z 11%
29%
10-09 19Z 3%
0%
10-09 20Z 5%
0%
10-09 21Z 5%
0%
10-09 22Z 5%
0%
10-09 23Z 4%
0%
10-10 00Z 3%
0%
10-10 01Z 3%
0%
10-10 02Z 4%
0%
10-10 03Z 5%
0%
10-10 04Z 6%
0%
10-10 05Z 6%
0%
10-10 06Z 6%
0%
10-10 07Z 15%
29%
10-10 08Z 14%
29%
10-10 09Z 11%
29%
10-10 10Z 11%
29%
10-10 11Z 12%
29%
10-10 12Z 10%
29%
10-10 13Z 3%
0%
10-10 14Z 3%
0%
10-10 15Z 2%
0%
10-10 16Z 2%
0%
10-10 17Z 2%
0%
10-10 18Z 2%
0%
10-10 19Z 2%
0%
10-10 20Z 2%
0%
10-10 21Z 4%
0%
10-10 22Z 5%
0%
10-10 23Z 5%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
4.3 mm total (sum of hourly medians)
· wettest hour 23Z :
0.3 mm/h
(80% band 0.0–1.7)
· 52% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
10-07 04Z 52%
11%
1%
0%
10-07 05Z 51%
11%
1%
0%
10-07 06Z 35%
7%
0%
0%
10-07 07Z 33%
8%
0%
0%
10-07 08Z 34%
8%
0%
0%
10-07 09Z 33%
8%
1%
0%
10-07 10Z 27%
6%
0%
0%
10-07 11Z 25%
6%
0%
0%
10-07 12Z 29%
7%
0%
0%
10-07 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 14Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 15Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 16Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 17Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 18Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 19Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 20Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 21Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 22Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 23Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 00Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 01Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 02Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 03Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 08Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 09Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 10Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 11Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 12Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 13Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 14Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 15Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 16Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 17Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 18Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 19Z 20%
4%
0%
0%
10-08 20Z 22%
4%
0%
0%
10-08 21Z 22%
5%
0%
0%
10-08 22Z 42%
15%
2%
0%
10-08 23Z 44%
17%
2%
1%
10-09 00Z 44%
8%
0%
0%
10-09 01Z 26%
5%
0%
0%
10-09 02Z 31%
6%
0%
0%
10-09 03Z 27%
5%
0%
0%
10-09 04Z 27%
5%
0%
0%
10-09 05Z 24%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 06Z 21%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 07Z 15%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 08Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 09Z 13%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 10Z 20%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 11Z 22%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 12Z 20%
6%
1%
0%
10-09 13Z 31%
11%
1%
0%
10-09 14Z 30%
9%
1%
0%
10-09 15Z 25%
8%
1%
0%
10-09 16Z 16%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 17Z 13%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 18Z 13%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 19Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-09 20Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-09 21Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-09 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-09 23Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
Membury village — best estimate of rain at the village
(EA gauge forecasts × on-site calibration)
Weighted composite of the three gauge forecasts above:
0.51·Goren + 0.31·Chards Snowdon Hill + 0.13·Raymonds Hill, fitted 2026-06-10 against the village's own
daily gauge (42 months). The village receives ~7% less rain than the
raw gauge average. Band edges assume the gauges co-vary
(they correlate at r ≈ 0.95); no exceedance table here because
threshold probabilities don't combine across gauges.
4.1 mm total (sum of hourly medians)
· wettest hour 23Z :
0.3 mm/h
(80% band 0.0–1.5)
· 44% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Predicted 09Z→09Z daily totals (sum of hourly village medians, at +72h)
Rain-day (09Z→09Z) Predicted total Tue 06 Oct 2.6 mm Wed 07 Oct 0.7 mm Thu 08 Oct 1.6 mm
NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Membury, East Devon