Rain +120h
NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.
NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon
Chards Snowdon Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Mon 03 Aug 12%
12% at 23Z
Tue 04 Aug 18%
12% at 09Z
Wed 05 Aug 8%
3% at 22Z
Thu 06 Aug 2%
2% at 18Z
Fri 07 Aug 4%
2% at 19Z
Sat 08 Aug 3%
2% at 18Z
Sun 09 Aug 7%
2% at 19Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
08-04 00Z 16%
50%
08-04 01Z 17%
33%
08-04 02Z 20%
33%
08-04 03Z 21%
33%
08-04 04Z 26%
33%
08-04 05Z 26%
33%
08-04 06Z 21%
33%
08-04 07Z 17%
50%
08-04 08Z 16%
50%
08-04 09Z 12%
50%
08-04 10Z 19%
83%
08-04 11Z 19%
83%
08-04 12Z 18%
83%
08-04 13Z 12%
50%
08-04 14Z 17%
67%
08-04 15Z 25%
67%
08-04 16Z 17%
50%
08-04 17Z 15%
50%
08-04 18Z 16%
50%
08-04 19Z 20%
50%
08-04 20Z 20%
50%
08-04 21Z 13%
50%
08-04 22Z 13%
50%
08-04 23Z 15%
50%
08-05 00Z 19%
50%
08-05 01Z 6%
0%
08-05 02Z 12%
17%
08-05 03Z 12%
17%
08-05 04Z 18%
33%
08-05 05Z 18%
33%
08-05 06Z 10%
17%
08-05 07Z 7%
17%
08-05 08Z 7%
17%
08-05 09Z 7%
17%
08-05 10Z 7%
33%
08-05 11Z 7%
33%
08-05 12Z 14%
50%
08-05 13Z 8%
33%
08-05 14Z 8%
33%
08-05 15Z 9%
33%
08-05 16Z 4%
0%
08-05 17Z 3%
0%
08-05 18Z 3%
0%
08-05 19Z 3%
0%
08-05 20Z 3%
0%
08-05 21Z 3%
0%
08-05 22Z 3%
0%
08-05 23Z 3%
0%
08-06 00Z 3%
0%
08-06 01Z 4%
0%
08-06 02Z 3%
0%
08-06 03Z 4%
0%
08-06 04Z 3%
0%
08-06 05Z 3%
0%
08-06 06Z 2%
0%
08-06 07Z 2%
0%
08-06 08Z 2%
0%
08-06 09Z 2%
0%
08-06 10Z 2%
0%
08-06 11Z 2%
0%
08-06 12Z 2%
0%
08-06 13Z 2%
0%
08-06 14Z 2%
0%
08-06 15Z 2%
0%
08-06 16Z 2%
0%
08-06 17Z 2%
0%
08-06 18Z 2%
0%
08-06 19Z 3%
0%
08-06 20Z 3%
0%
08-06 21Z 2%
0%
08-06 22Z 2%
0%
08-06 23Z 2%
0%
08-07 00Z 3%
0%
08-07 01Z 3%
0%
08-07 02Z 5%
17%
08-07 03Z 5%
17%
08-07 04Z 5%
17%
08-07 05Z 5%
17%
08-07 06Z 5%
17%
08-07 07Z 3%
0%
08-07 08Z 3%
0%
08-07 09Z 3%
0%
08-07 10Z 4%
17%
08-07 11Z 4%
17%
08-07 12Z 5%
17%
08-07 13Z 5%
17%
08-07 14Z 7%
33%
08-07 15Z 8%
33%
08-07 16Z 3%
17%
08-07 17Z 3%
17%
08-07 18Z 3%
17%
08-07 19Z 2%
0%
08-07 20Z 2%
0%
08-07 21Z 3%
0%
08-07 22Z 3%
0%
08-07 23Z 3%
0%
08-08 00Z 3%
0%
08-08 01Z 3%
0%
08-08 02Z 3%
0%
08-08 03Z 3%
0%
08-08 04Z 3%
0%
08-08 05Z 3%
0%
08-08 06Z 3%
0%
08-08 07Z 3%
0%
08-08 08Z 3%
0%
08-08 09Z 3%
0%
08-08 10Z 3%
0%
08-08 11Z 3%
0%
08-08 12Z 5%
17%
08-08 13Z 3%
0%
08-08 14Z 3%
0%
08-08 15Z 2%
0%
08-08 16Z 2%
0%
08-08 17Z 2%
0%
08-08 18Z 2%
0%
08-08 19Z 4%
17%
08-08 20Z 4%
17%
08-08 21Z 4%
17%
08-08 22Z 8%
17%
08-08 23Z 10%
17%
08-09 00Z 3%
0%
08-09 01Z 7%
17%
08-09 02Z 7%
17%
08-09 03Z 7%
17%
08-09 04Z 7%
17%
08-09 05Z 8%
17%
08-09 06Z 6%
17%
08-09 07Z 10%
50%
08-09 08Z 10%
50%
08-09 09Z 10%
50%
08-09 10Z 8%
33%
08-09 11Z 8%
33%
08-09 12Z 10%
50%
08-09 13Z 8%
33%
08-09 14Z 10%
50%
08-09 15Z 16%
50%
08-09 16Z 6%
17%
08-09 17Z 5%
17%
08-09 18Z 5%
17%
08-09 19Z 2%
0%
08-09 20Z 3%
0%
08-09 21Z 4%
0%
08-09 22Z 4%
0%
08-09 23Z 4%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 17%
at 23Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
08-04 23Z 17%
5%
0%
0%
08-05 00Z 15%
4%
0%
0%
08-05 01Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 02Z 11%
3%
0%
0%
08-05 03Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
08-05 04Z 13%
3%
0%
0%
08-05 05Z 13%
3%
0%
0%
08-05 06Z 12%
3%
0%
0%
08-05 07Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 08Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 09Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 10Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 11Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 12Z 14%
4%
0%
0%
08-05 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 14Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 15Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 01Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 03Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 04Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 05Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 06Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 07Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 23Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 03Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 04Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 05Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 06Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 07Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 12Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 13Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 14Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 15Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 23Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 04Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 05Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 06Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 07Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 12Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 19Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 20Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 22Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
08-08 23Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
08-09 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 04Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
08-09 05Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
08-09 06Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 07Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 08Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 09Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 12Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 13Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
08-09 14Z 11%
3%
0%
0%
08-09 15Z 11%
3%
0%
0%
08-09 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 23Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
Goren
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Mon 03 Aug 14%
14% at 23Z
Tue 04 Aug 17%
13% at 22Z
Wed 05 Aug 9%
2% at 21Z
Thu 06 Aug 3%
2% at 21Z
Fri 07 Aug 5%
3% at 09Z
Sat 08 Aug 4%
3% at 18Z
Sun 09 Aug 10%
3% at 00Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
08-04 00Z 18%
50%
08-04 01Z 17%
33%
08-04 02Z 17%
33%
08-04 03Z 17%
33%
08-04 04Z 17%
33%
08-04 05Z 17%
33%
08-04 06Z 17%
33%
08-04 07Z 16%
50%
08-04 08Z 17%
50%
08-04 09Z 16%
50%
08-04 10Z 23%
83%
08-04 11Z 24%
83%
08-04 12Z 24%
83%
08-04 13Z 16%
50%
08-04 14Z 14%
67%
08-04 15Z 15%
67%
08-04 16Z 17%
50%
08-04 17Z 18%
50%
08-04 18Z 18%
50%
08-04 19Z 19%
50%
08-04 20Z 16%
50%
08-04 21Z 14%
50%
08-04 22Z 13%
50%
08-04 23Z 14%
50%
08-05 00Z 16%
50%
08-05 01Z 7%
0%
08-05 02Z 12%
17%
08-05 03Z 12%
17%
08-05 04Z 15%
33%
08-05 05Z 17%
33%
08-05 06Z 11%
17%
08-05 07Z 10%
17%
08-05 08Z 7%
17%
08-05 09Z 7%
17%
08-05 10Z 11%
33%
08-05 11Z 11%
33%
08-05 12Z 14%
50%
08-05 13Z 10%
33%
08-05 14Z 12%
33%
08-05 15Z 18%
33%
08-05 16Z 4%
0%
08-05 17Z 4%
0%
08-05 18Z 4%
0%
08-05 19Z 3%
0%
08-05 20Z 5%
0%
08-05 21Z 2%
0%
08-05 22Z 3%
0%
08-05 23Z 5%
0%
08-06 00Z 4%
0%
08-06 01Z 4%
0%
08-06 02Z 4%
0%
08-06 03Z 4%
0%
08-06 04Z 4%
0%
08-06 05Z 5%
0%
08-06 06Z 4%
0%
08-06 07Z 4%
0%
08-06 08Z 4%
0%
08-06 09Z 3%
0%
08-06 10Z 3%
0%
08-06 11Z 4%
0%
08-06 12Z 3%
0%
08-06 13Z 3%
0%
08-06 14Z 4%
0%
08-06 15Z 3%
0%
08-06 16Z 3%
0%
08-06 17Z 3%
0%
08-06 18Z 2%
0%
08-06 19Z 4%
0%
08-06 20Z 4%
0%
08-06 21Z 2%
0%
08-06 22Z 2%
0%
08-06 23Z 2%
0%
08-07 00Z 3%
0%
08-07 01Z 3%
0%
08-07 02Z 6%
17%
08-07 03Z 6%
17%
08-07 04Z 6%
17%
08-07 05Z 6%
17%
08-07 06Z 6%
17%
08-07 07Z 3%
0%
08-07 08Z 3%
0%
08-07 09Z 3%
0%
08-07 10Z 5%
17%
08-07 11Z 5%
17%
08-07 12Z 5%
17%
08-07 13Z 5%
17%
08-07 14Z 9%
33%
08-07 15Z 8%
33%
08-07 16Z 4%
17%
08-07 17Z 4%
17%
08-07 18Z 5%
17%
08-07 19Z 3%
0%
08-07 20Z 4%
0%
08-07 21Z 4%
0%
08-07 22Z 4%
0%
08-07 23Z 4%
0%
08-08 00Z 3%
0%
08-08 01Z 4%
0%
08-08 02Z 4%
0%
08-08 03Z 4%
0%
08-08 04Z 5%
0%
08-08 05Z 6%
0%
08-08 06Z 4%
0%
08-08 07Z 4%
0%
08-08 08Z 3%
0%
08-08 09Z 3%
0%
08-08 10Z 3%
0%
08-08 11Z 3%
0%
08-08 12Z 5%
17%
08-08 13Z 3%
0%
08-08 14Z 3%
0%
08-08 15Z 4%
0%
08-08 16Z 4%
0%
08-08 17Z 3%
0%
08-08 18Z 3%
0%
08-08 19Z 5%
17%
08-08 20Z 6%
17%
08-08 21Z 5%
17%
08-08 22Z 8%
17%
08-08 23Z 10%
17%
08-09 00Z 3%
0%
08-09 01Z 8%
17%
08-09 02Z 8%
17%
08-09 03Z 9%
17%
08-09 04Z 9%
17%
08-09 05Z 8%
17%
08-09 06Z 7%
17%
08-09 07Z 17%
50%
08-09 08Z 16%
50%
08-09 09Z 15%
50%
08-09 10Z 11%
33%
08-09 11Z 11%
33%
08-09 12Z 16%
50%
08-09 13Z 14%
33%
08-09 14Z 12%
50%
08-09 15Z 22%
50%
08-09 16Z 11%
17%
08-09 17Z 10%
17%
08-09 18Z 9%
17%
08-09 19Z 4%
0%
08-09 20Z 5%
0%
08-09 21Z 4%
0%
08-09 22Z 4%
0%
08-09 23Z 5%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 19%
at 23Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
08-04 23Z 19%
5%
0%
0%
08-05 00Z 16%
4%
0%
0%
08-05 01Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 02Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
08-05 03Z 10%
2%
0%
0%
08-05 04Z 11%
3%
0%
0%
08-05 05Z 11%
3%
0%
0%
08-05 06Z 10%
2%
0%
0%
08-05 07Z 6%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 08Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 09Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 10Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
08-05 11Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
08-05 12Z 13%
4%
0%
0%
08-05 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 14Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 15Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 01Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 03Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 04Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 05Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 06Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 11Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 14Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 15Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 01Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 02Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 03Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 04Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 05Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 06Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 07Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 12Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 14Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 15Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 01Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 03Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 04Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 05Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 06Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 07Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 11Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 12Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 13Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 14Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 15Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 16Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 17Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 18Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 19Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 20Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 22Z 5%
2%
0%
0%
08-08 23Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
08-09 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 01Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 03Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 04Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
08-09 05Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
08-09 06Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 07Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 08Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 09Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 12Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 13Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
08-09 14Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
08-09 15Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
08-09 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 19Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-09 20Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-09 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-09 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-09 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
Raymonds Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Mon 03 Aug 18%
18% at 23Z
Tue 04 Aug 20%
15% at 09Z
Wed 05 Aug 8%
2% at 19Z
Thu 06 Aug 3%
2% at 18Z
Fri 07 Aug 4%
3% at 08Z
Sat 08 Aug 4%
3% at 13Z
Sun 09 Aug 10%
3% at 19Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
08-04 00Z 19%
50%
08-04 01Z 18%
33%
08-04 02Z 21%
33%
08-04 03Z 23%
33%
08-04 04Z 26%
33%
08-04 05Z 25%
33%
08-04 06Z 24%
33%
08-04 07Z 16%
50%
08-04 08Z 15%
50%
08-04 09Z 15%
50%
08-04 10Z 21%
83%
08-04 11Z 23%
83%
08-04 12Z 25%
83%
08-04 13Z 15%
50%
08-04 14Z 15%
67%
08-04 15Z 18%
67%
08-04 16Z 17%
50%
08-04 17Z 17%
50%
08-04 18Z 19%
50%
08-04 19Z 16%
50%
08-04 20Z 18%
50%
08-04 21Z 21%
50%
08-04 22Z 23%
50%
08-04 23Z 21%
50%
08-05 00Z 17%
50%
08-05 01Z 7%
0%
08-05 02Z 12%
17%
08-05 03Z 12%
17%
08-05 04Z 14%
33%
08-05 05Z 14%
33%
08-05 06Z 8%
17%
08-05 07Z 7%
17%
08-05 08Z 5%
17%
08-05 09Z 5%
17%
08-05 10Z 9%
33%
08-05 11Z 9%
33%
08-05 12Z 12%
50%
08-05 13Z 9%
33%
08-05 14Z 9%
33%
08-05 15Z 9%
33%
08-05 16Z 3%
0%
08-05 17Z 3%
0%
08-05 18Z 3%
0%
08-05 19Z 2%
0%
08-05 20Z 4%
0%
08-05 21Z 3%
0%
08-05 22Z 3%
0%
08-05 23Z 4%
0%
08-06 00Z 3%
0%
08-06 01Z 3%
0%
08-06 02Z 3%
0%
08-06 03Z 4%
0%
08-06 04Z 3%
0%
08-06 05Z 3%
0%
08-06 06Z 3%
0%
08-06 07Z 3%
0%
08-06 08Z 3%
0%
08-06 09Z 3%
0%
08-06 10Z 3%
0%
08-06 11Z 3%
0%
08-06 12Z 3%
0%
08-06 13Z 3%
0%
08-06 14Z 3%
0%
08-06 15Z 3%
0%
08-06 16Z 3%
0%
08-06 17Z 2%
0%
08-06 18Z 2%
0%
08-06 19Z 3%
0%
08-06 20Z 3%
0%
08-06 21Z 2%
0%
08-06 22Z 3%
0%
08-06 23Z 3%
0%
08-07 00Z 3%
0%
08-07 01Z 3%
0%
08-07 02Z 3%
17%
08-07 03Z 4%
17%
08-07 04Z 4%
17%
08-07 05Z 4%
17%
08-07 06Z 4%
17%
08-07 07Z 3%
0%
08-07 08Z 3%
0%
08-07 09Z 3%
0%
08-07 10Z 3%
17%
08-07 11Z 3%
17%
08-07 12Z 5%
17%
08-07 13Z 5%
17%
08-07 14Z 10%
33%
08-07 15Z 10%
33%
08-07 16Z 4%
17%
08-07 17Z 4%
17%
08-07 18Z 5%
17%
08-07 19Z 3%
0%
08-07 20Z 4%
0%
08-07 21Z 3%
0%
08-07 22Z 4%
0%
08-07 23Z 5%
0%
08-08 00Z 4%
0%
08-08 01Z 5%
0%
08-08 02Z 5%
0%
08-08 03Z 5%
0%
08-08 04Z 5%
0%
08-08 05Z 6%
0%
08-08 06Z 4%
0%
08-08 07Z 4%
0%
08-08 08Z 3%
0%
08-08 09Z 4%
0%
08-08 10Z 4%
0%
08-08 11Z 4%
0%
08-08 12Z 4%
17%
08-08 13Z 3%
0%
08-08 14Z 3%
0%
08-08 15Z 3%
0%
08-08 16Z 3%
0%
08-08 17Z 4%
0%
08-08 18Z 3%
0%
08-08 19Z 6%
17%
08-08 20Z 5%
17%
08-08 21Z 4%
17%
08-08 22Z 7%
17%
08-08 23Z 8%
17%
08-09 00Z 4%
0%
08-09 01Z 5%
17%
08-09 02Z 6%
17%
08-09 03Z 6%
17%
08-09 04Z 10%
17%
08-09 05Z 9%
17%
08-09 06Z 5%
17%
08-09 07Z 14%
50%
08-09 08Z 16%
50%
08-09 09Z 16%
50%
08-09 10Z 10%
33%
08-09 11Z 10%
33%
08-09 12Z 19%
50%
08-09 13Z 17%
33%
08-09 14Z 19%
50%
08-09 15Z 33%
50%
08-09 16Z 6%
17%
08-09 17Z 6%
17%
08-09 18Z 6%
17%
08-09 19Z 3%
0%
08-09 20Z 5%
0%
08-09 21Z 4%
0%
08-09 22Z 4%
0%
08-09 23Z 5%
0%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 19%
at 00Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
08-04 23Z 18%
5%
0%
0%
08-05 00Z 19%
5%
0%
0%
08-05 01Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
08-05 02Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
08-05 03Z 10%
2%
0%
0%
08-05 04Z 14%
3%
0%
0%
08-05 05Z 14%
3%
0%
0%
08-05 06Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
08-05 07Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 08Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 10Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 11Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 12Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
08-05 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 14Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 16Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 17Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 19Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-05 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-05 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 01Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 03Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 04Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 05Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 06Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-06 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 11Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 12Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 14Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 15Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 16Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 17Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 18Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 19Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 20Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 21Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-06 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 01Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 02Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 03Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 04Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 05Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 06Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 07Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 12Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 14Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 15Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-07 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-07 23Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 00Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 01Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 02Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 03Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 04Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 05Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 06Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 07Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 11Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 14Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 15Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
08-08 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-08 22Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
08-08 23Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
08-09 00Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 01Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 02Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 03Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 04Z 10%
2%
0%
0%
08-09 05Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
08-09 06Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 07Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 08Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 09Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 12Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 13Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
08-09 14Z 8%
3%
0%
0%
08-09 15Z 8%
3%
0%
0%
08-09 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
08-09 23Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
Membury village — best estimate of rain at the village
(EA gauge forecasts × on-site calibration)
Weighted composite of the three gauge forecasts above:
0.51·Goren + 0.31·Chards Snowdon Hill + 0.13·Raymonds Hill, fitted 2026-06-10 against the village's own
daily gauge (42 months). The village receives ~7% less rain than the
raw gauge average. Band edges assume the gauges co-vary
(they correlate at r ≈ 0.95); no exceedance table here because
threshold probabilities don't combine across gauges.
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 18%
at 23Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Predicted 09Z→09Z daily totals (sum of hourly village medians, at +120h)
Rain-day (09Z→09Z) Predicted total Tue 04 Aug 1.5 mm Wed 05 Aug 0.4 mm Thu 06 Aug 0.3 mm Fri 07 Aug 0.3 mm Sat 08 Aug 0.4 mm
NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Membury, East Devon