Rain +120h
NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.
NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon
Chards Snowdon Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct 6%
3% at 05Z
Wed 07 Oct 8%
1% at 19Z
Thu 08 Oct 4%
2% at 18Z
Fri 09 Oct 21%
7% at 23Z
Sat 10 Oct 5%
2% at 18Z
Sun 11 Oct 7%
2% at 19Z
Mon 12 Oct 15%
6% at 00Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
10-07 00Z 15%
50%
10-07 01Z 14%
33%
10-07 02Z 12%
50%
10-07 03Z 11%
50%
10-07 04Z 23%
83%
10-07 05Z 23%
83%
10-07 06Z 21%
67%
10-07 07Z 11%
33%
10-07 08Z 9%
50%
10-07 09Z 10%
50%
10-07 10Z 11%
33%
10-07 11Z 9%
33%
10-07 12Z 3%
17%
10-07 13Z 2%
0%
10-07 14Z 2%
0%
10-07 15Z 2%
0%
10-07 16Z 2%
0%
10-07 17Z 2%
0%
10-07 18Z 2%
0%
10-07 19Z 1%
0%
10-07 20Z 2%
0%
10-07 21Z 3%
0%
10-07 22Z 3%
0%
10-07 23Z 4%
0%
10-08 00Z 2%
0%
10-08 01Z 2%
0%
10-08 02Z 2%
0%
10-08 03Z 2%
0%
10-08 04Z 2%
0%
10-08 05Z 2%
0%
10-08 06Z 3%
0%
10-08 07Z 2%
0%
10-08 08Z 2%
0%
10-08 09Z 2%
0%
10-08 10Z 2%
0%
10-08 11Z 2%
0%
10-08 12Z 2%
0%
10-08 13Z 2%
0%
10-08 14Z 2%
0%
10-08 15Z 3%
0%
10-08 16Z 3%
0%
10-08 17Z 2%
0%
10-08 18Z 2%
0%
10-08 19Z 5%
17%
10-08 20Z 6%
17%
10-08 21Z 10%
17%
10-08 22Z 15%
33%
10-08 23Z 14%
33%
10-09 00Z 10%
17%
10-09 01Z 18%
50%
10-09 02Z 26%
67%
10-09 03Z 26%
67%
10-09 04Z 16%
33%
10-09 05Z 16%
33%
10-09 06Z 33%
67%
10-09 07Z 21%
50%
10-09 08Z 22%
50%
10-09 09Z 25%
50%
10-09 10Z 25%
67%
10-09 11Z 27%
67%
10-09 12Z 20%
50%
10-09 13Z 21%
50%
10-09 14Z 26%
50%
10-09 15Z 16%
50%
10-09 16Z 17%
50%
10-09 17Z 19%
50%
10-09 18Z 22%
50%
10-09 19Z 36%
67%
10-09 20Z 36%
67%
10-09 21Z 23%
67%
10-09 22Z 8%
17%
10-09 23Z 7%
17%
10-10 00Z 13%
33%
10-10 01Z 5%
17%
10-10 02Z 8%
17%
10-10 03Z 8%
17%
10-10 04Z 4%
0%
10-10 05Z 4%
0%
10-10 06Z 4%
0%
10-10 07Z 5%
0%
10-10 08Z 5%
0%
10-10 09Z 4%
0%
10-10 10Z 4%
0%
10-10 11Z 3%
0%
10-10 12Z 6%
17%
10-10 13Z 6%
17%
10-10 14Z 6%
17%
10-10 15Z 5%
17%
10-10 16Z 2%
0%
10-10 17Z 2%
0%
10-10 18Z 2%
0%
10-10 19Z 4%
17%
10-10 20Z 4%
0%
10-10 21Z 4%
0%
10-10 22Z 4%
0%
10-10 23Z 5%
0%
10-11 00Z 3%
0%
10-11 01Z 19%
33%
10-11 02Z 13%
17%
10-11 03Z 13%
17%
10-11 04Z 4%
0%
10-11 05Z 4%
0%
10-11 06Z 4%
0%
10-11 07Z 7%
17%
10-11 08Z 9%
17%
10-11 09Z 9%
17%
10-11 10Z 9%
17%
10-11 11Z 7%
17%
10-11 12Z 8%
17%
10-11 13Z 8%
17%
10-11 14Z 7%
17%
10-11 15Z 4%
17%
10-11 16Z 4%
17%
10-11 17Z 4%
17%
10-11 18Z 4%
17%
10-11 19Z 2%
0%
10-11 20Z 3%
0%
10-11 21Z 7%
0%
10-11 22Z 8%
17%
10-11 23Z 8%
17%
10-12 00Z 6%
17%
10-12 01Z 9%
17%
10-12 02Z 13%
33%
10-12 03Z 14%
33%
10-12 04Z 15%
33%
10-12 05Z 15%
33%
10-12 06Z 15%
33%
10-12 07Z 10%
17%
10-12 08Z 11%
17%
10-12 09Z 12%
17%
10-12 10Z 8%
17%
10-12 11Z 7%
17%
10-12 12Z 7%
17%
10-12 13Z 11%
17%
10-12 14Z 12%
17%
10-12 15Z 13%
17%
10-12 16Z 17%
33%
10-12 17Z 18%
33%
10-12 18Z 19%
33%
10-12 19Z 25%
67%
10-12 20Z 25%
67%
10-12 21Z 25%
67%
10-12 22Z 30%
50%
10-12 23Z 30%
50%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
6.5 mm total (sum of hourly medians)
· wettest hour 21Z :
0.2 mm/h
(80% band 0.0–1.2)
· 41% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
10-07 04Z 24%
9%
1%
0%
10-07 05Z 25%
9%
1%
0%
10-07 06Z 25%
9%
1%
0%
10-07 07Z 7%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 08Z 12%
3%
0%
0%
10-07 09Z 17%
4%
0%
0%
10-07 10Z 21%
5%
0%
0%
10-07 11Z 29%
7%
0%
0%
10-07 12Z 17%
4%
0%
0%
10-07 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 20Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 21Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 22Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 23Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 05Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 06Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 08Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 09Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 11Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 12Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 18Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 19Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
10-08 20Z 13%
4%
0%
0%
10-08 21Z 14%
4%
0%
0%
10-08 22Z 23%
6%
0%
0%
10-08 23Z 25%
7%
0%
0%
10-09 00Z 20%
5%
0%
0%
10-09 01Z 12%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 02Z 14%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 03Z 19%
5%
0%
0%
10-09 04Z 13%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 05Z 18%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 06Z 34%
8%
0%
0%
10-09 07Z 30%
7%
0%
0%
10-09 08Z 31%
7%
0%
0%
10-09 09Z 30%
7%
0%
0%
10-09 10Z 30%
7%
0%
0%
10-09 11Z 30%
8%
0%
0%
10-09 12Z 25%
7%
0%
0%
10-09 13Z 27%
7%
0%
0%
10-09 14Z 29%
8%
0%
0%
10-09 15Z 28%
8%
0%
0%
10-09 16Z 32%
9%
0%
0%
10-09 17Z 33%
9%
0%
0%
10-09 18Z 36%
10%
0%
0%
10-09 19Z 35%
11%
1%
0%
10-09 20Z 39%
12%
1%
0%
10-09 21Z 41%
13%
1%
0%
10-09 22Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 23Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-10 00Z 26%
7%
0%
0%
10-10 01Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 03Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 04Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 05Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 06Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 07Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-10 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 12Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 19Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-10 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 01Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
10-11 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 03Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 04Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 05Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 06Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 07Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 08Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 09Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 10Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 11Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
10-11 12Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
10-11 13Z 15%
4%
0%
0%
10-11 14Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 15Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 16Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 17Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 18Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 19Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 20Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 23Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
Goren
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct 9%
5% at 19Z
Wed 07 Oct 9%
3% at 13Z
Thu 08 Oct 5%
4% at 13Z
Fri 09 Oct 23%
7% at 23Z
Sat 10 Oct 5%
3% at 17Z
Sun 11 Oct 8%
3% at 19Z
Mon 12 Oct 13%
6% at 07Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
10-07 00Z 12%
50%
10-07 01Z 14%
33%
10-07 02Z 16%
50%
10-07 03Z 15%
50%
10-07 04Z 20%
83%
10-07 05Z 20%
83%
10-07 06Z 18%
67%
10-07 07Z 11%
33%
10-07 08Z 14%
50%
10-07 09Z 12%
50%
10-07 10Z 9%
33%
10-07 11Z 8%
33%
10-07 12Z 6%
17%
10-07 13Z 3%
0%
10-07 14Z 3%
0%
10-07 15Z 3%
0%
10-07 16Z 3%
0%
10-07 17Z 3%
0%
10-07 18Z 3%
0%
10-07 19Z 3%
0%
10-07 20Z 4%
0%
10-07 21Z 3%
0%
10-07 22Z 3%
0%
10-07 23Z 3%
0%
10-08 00Z 4%
0%
10-08 01Z 4%
0%
10-08 02Z 5%
0%
10-08 03Z 5%
0%
10-08 04Z 5%
0%
10-08 05Z 5%
0%
10-08 06Z 5%
0%
10-08 07Z 5%
0%
10-08 08Z 4%
0%
10-08 09Z 4%
0%
10-08 10Z 4%
0%
10-08 11Z 4%
0%
10-08 12Z 4%
0%
10-08 13Z 4%
0%
10-08 14Z 4%
0%
10-08 15Z 4%
0%
10-08 16Z 4%
0%
10-08 17Z 4%
0%
10-08 18Z 4%
0%
10-08 19Z 4%
17%
10-08 20Z 5%
17%
10-08 21Z 9%
17%
10-08 22Z 13%
33%
10-08 23Z 13%
33%
10-09 00Z 8%
17%
10-09 01Z 12%
50%
10-09 02Z 18%
67%
10-09 03Z 21%
67%
10-09 04Z 13%
33%
10-09 05Z 15%
33%
10-09 06Z 27%
67%
10-09 07Z 26%
50%
10-09 08Z 27%
50%
10-09 09Z 33%
50%
10-09 10Z 30%
67%
10-09 11Z 30%
67%
10-09 12Z 20%
50%
10-09 13Z 22%
50%
10-09 14Z 27%
50%
10-09 15Z 18%
50%
10-09 16Z 22%
50%
10-09 17Z 24%
50%
10-09 18Z 26%
50%
10-09 19Z 53%
67%
10-09 20Z 50%
67%
10-09 21Z 18%
67%
10-09 22Z 8%
17%
10-09 23Z 7%
17%
10-10 00Z 12%
33%
10-10 01Z 6%
17%
10-10 02Z 7%
17%
10-10 03Z 7%
17%
10-10 04Z 5%
0%
10-10 05Z 6%
0%
10-10 06Z 6%
0%
10-10 07Z 5%
0%
10-10 08Z 4%
0%
10-10 09Z 5%
0%
10-10 10Z 5%
0%
10-10 11Z 5%
0%
10-10 12Z 7%
17%
10-10 13Z 7%
17%
10-10 14Z 7%
17%
10-10 15Z 5%
17%
10-10 16Z 3%
0%
10-10 17Z 3%
0%
10-10 18Z 3%
0%
10-10 19Z 5%
17%
10-10 20Z 5%
0%
10-10 21Z 4%
0%
10-10 22Z 5%
0%
10-10 23Z 4%
0%
10-11 00Z 5%
0%
10-11 01Z 19%
33%
10-11 02Z 9%
17%
10-11 03Z 10%
17%
10-11 04Z 6%
0%
10-11 05Z 7%
0%
10-11 06Z 6%
0%
10-11 07Z 9%
17%
10-11 08Z 10%
17%
10-11 09Z 11%
17%
10-11 10Z 11%
17%
10-11 11Z 11%
17%
10-11 12Z 11%
17%
10-11 13Z 10%
17%
10-11 14Z 11%
17%
10-11 15Z 8%
17%
10-11 16Z 7%
17%
10-11 17Z 8%
17%
10-11 18Z 8%
17%
10-11 19Z 3%
0%
10-11 20Z 5%
0%
10-11 21Z 6%
0%
10-11 22Z 5%
17%
10-11 23Z 5%
17%
10-12 00Z 10%
17%
10-12 01Z 9%
17%
10-12 02Z 16%
33%
10-12 03Z 11%
33%
10-12 04Z 9%
33%
10-12 05Z 9%
33%
10-12 06Z 9%
33%
10-12 07Z 6%
17%
10-12 08Z 7%
17%
10-12 09Z 7%
17%
10-12 10Z 6%
17%
10-12 11Z 6%
17%
10-12 12Z 6%
17%
10-12 13Z 10%
17%
10-12 14Z 8%
17%
10-12 15Z 11%
17%
10-12 16Z 20%
33%
10-12 17Z 20%
33%
10-12 18Z 21%
33%
10-12 19Z 12%
67%
10-12 20Z 17%
67%
10-12 21Z 21%
67%
10-12 22Z 24%
50%
10-12 23Z 24%
50%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
5.3 mm total (sum of hourly medians)
· wettest hour 19Z :
0.2 mm/h
(80% band 0.0–1.1)
· 35% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
10-07 04Z 23%
9%
1%
0%
10-07 05Z 22%
7%
1%
0%
10-07 06Z 24%
6%
1%
0%
10-07 07Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
10-07 08Z 11%
2%
0%
0%
10-07 09Z 11%
3%
0%
0%
10-07 10Z 13%
3%
0%
0%
10-07 11Z 23%
6%
0%
0%
10-07 12Z 23%
6%
0%
0%
10-07 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 15Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 17Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 18Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 19Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 20Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 21Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-07 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 01Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 03Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 04Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 05Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 06Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 07Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 09Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 10Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 11Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 12Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 13Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 14Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 15Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 16Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 17Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 18Z 1%
0%
0%
0%
10-08 19Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
10-08 20Z 12%
3%
0%
0%
10-08 21Z 13%
3%
0%
0%
10-08 22Z 23%
6%
1%
0%
10-08 23Z 25%
7%
1%
0%
10-09 00Z 17%
5%
0%
0%
10-09 01Z 16%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 02Z 14%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 03Z 19%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 04Z 13%
3%
0%
0%
10-09 05Z 19%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 06Z 32%
7%
0%
0%
10-09 07Z 30%
6%
0%
0%
10-09 08Z 29%
6%
0%
0%
10-09 09Z 28%
6%
0%
0%
10-09 10Z 33%
8%
1%
0%
10-09 11Z 35%
9%
1%
0%
10-09 12Z 31%
8%
1%
0%
10-09 13Z 27%
7%
1%
0%
10-09 14Z 27%
7%
1%
0%
10-09 15Z 26%
7%
1%
0%
10-09 16Z 31%
8%
1%
0%
10-09 17Z 34%
9%
1%
0%
10-09 18Z 35%
9%
1%
0%
10-09 19Z 34%
11%
1%
0%
10-09 20Z 33%
10%
1%
0%
10-09 21Z 33%
10%
1%
0%
10-09 22Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 23Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-10 00Z 15%
4%
0%
0%
10-10 01Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 02Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 03Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 04Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 05Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 06Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 07Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-10 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-10 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-10 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 12Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 15Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-10 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-10 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-10 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-10 19Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
10-10 20Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
10-10 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 01Z 10%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 02Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 03Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 04Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 05Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 06Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 07Z 7%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 08Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 09Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 10Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 11Z 11%
3%
0%
0%
10-11 12Z 11%
3%
0%
0%
10-11 13Z 14%
4%
0%
0%
10-11 14Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 15Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 16Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 17Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 18Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 19Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 20Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 23Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
Raymonds Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct 9%
4% at 10Z
Wed 07 Oct 11%
1% at 13Z
Thu 08 Oct 4%
2% at 12Z
Fri 09 Oct 22%
6% at 23Z
Sat 10 Oct 5%
2% at 18Z
Sun 11 Oct 8%
2% at 19Z
Mon 12 Oct 16%
4% at 00Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
10-07 00Z 20%
50%
10-07 01Z 20%
33%
10-07 02Z 14%
50%
10-07 03Z 16%
50%
10-07 04Z 30%
83%
10-07 05Z 27%
83%
10-07 06Z 19%
67%
10-07 07Z 13%
33%
10-07 08Z 15%
50%
10-07 09Z 17%
50%
10-07 10Z 12%
33%
10-07 11Z 12%
33%
10-07 12Z 3%
17%
10-07 13Z 1%
0%
10-07 14Z 2%
0%
10-07 15Z 4%
0%
10-07 16Z 4%
0%
10-07 17Z 4%
0%
10-07 18Z 4%
0%
10-07 19Z 3%
0%
10-07 20Z 4%
0%
10-07 21Z 4%
0%
10-07 22Z 4%
0%
10-07 23Z 4%
0%
10-08 00Z 3%
0%
10-08 01Z 3%
0%
10-08 02Z 3%
0%
10-08 03Z 2%
0%
10-08 04Z 3%
0%
10-08 05Z 3%
0%
10-08 06Z 3%
0%
10-08 07Z 3%
0%
10-08 08Z 3%
0%
10-08 09Z 2%
0%
10-08 10Z 2%
0%
10-08 11Z 2%
0%
10-08 12Z 2%
0%
10-08 13Z 2%
0%
10-08 14Z 2%
0%
10-08 15Z 6%
0%
10-08 16Z 6%
0%
10-08 17Z 6%
0%
10-08 18Z 5%
0%
10-08 19Z 8%
17%
10-08 20Z 8%
17%
10-08 21Z 7%
17%
10-08 22Z 11%
33%
10-08 23Z 11%
33%
10-09 00Z 8%
17%
10-09 01Z 19%
50%
10-09 02Z 22%
67%
10-09 03Z 20%
67%
10-09 04Z 13%
33%
10-09 05Z 14%
33%
10-09 06Z 25%
67%
10-09 07Z 27%
50%
10-09 08Z 27%
50%
10-09 09Z 24%
50%
10-09 10Z 23%
67%
10-09 11Z 23%
67%
10-09 12Z 20%
50%
10-09 13Z 21%
50%
10-09 14Z 23%
50%
10-09 15Z 15%
50%
10-09 16Z 20%
50%
10-09 17Z 24%
50%
10-09 18Z 24%
50%
10-09 19Z 50%
67%
10-09 20Z 50%
67%
10-09 21Z 16%
67%
10-09 22Z 7%
17%
10-09 23Z 6%
17%
10-10 00Z 21%
33%
10-10 01Z 5%
17%
10-10 02Z 7%
17%
10-10 03Z 7%
17%
10-10 04Z 5%
0%
10-10 05Z 5%
0%
10-10 06Z 6%
0%
10-10 07Z 5%
0%
10-10 08Z 4%
0%
10-10 09Z 4%
0%
10-10 10Z 3%
0%
10-10 11Z 3%
0%
10-10 12Z 4%
17%
10-10 13Z 4%
17%
10-10 14Z 4%
17%
10-10 15Z 6%
17%
10-10 16Z 3%
0%
10-10 17Z 3%
0%
10-10 18Z 2%
0%
10-10 19Z 5%
17%
10-10 20Z 3%
0%
10-10 21Z 3%
0%
10-10 22Z 4%
0%
10-10 23Z 4%
0%
10-11 00Z 4%
0%
10-11 01Z 25%
33%
10-11 02Z 15%
17%
10-11 03Z 17%
17%
10-11 04Z 4%
0%
10-11 05Z 5%
0%
10-11 06Z 7%
0%
10-11 07Z 10%
17%
10-11 08Z 10%
17%
10-11 09Z 8%
17%
10-11 10Z 9%
17%
10-11 11Z 9%
17%
10-11 12Z 9%
17%
10-11 13Z 10%
17%
10-11 14Z 6%
17%
10-11 15Z 4%
17%
10-11 16Z 4%
17%
10-11 17Z 4%
17%
10-11 18Z 4%
17%
10-11 19Z 2%
0%
10-11 20Z 5%
0%
10-11 21Z 11%
0%
10-11 22Z 10%
17%
10-11 23Z 10%
17%
10-12 00Z 4%
17%
10-12 01Z 9%
17%
10-12 02Z 17%
33%
10-12 03Z 22%
33%
10-12 04Z 18%
33%
10-12 05Z 16%
33%
10-12 06Z 15%
33%
10-12 07Z 10%
17%
10-12 08Z 11%
17%
10-12 09Z 11%
17%
10-12 10Z 9%
17%
10-12 11Z 8%
17%
10-12 12Z 6%
17%
10-12 13Z 8%
17%
10-12 14Z 10%
17%
10-12 15Z 12%
17%
10-12 16Z 23%
33%
10-12 17Z 22%
33%
10-12 18Z 21%
33%
10-12 19Z 20%
67%
10-12 20Z 22%
67%
10-12 21Z 26%
67%
10-12 22Z 29%
50%
10-12 23Z 26%
50%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
6.1 mm total (sum of hourly medians)
· wettest hour 19Z :
0.2 mm/h
(80% band 0.0–1.1)
· 40% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
10-07 04Z 31%
10%
1%
0%
10-07 05Z 31%
10%
1%
0%
10-07 06Z 27%
8%
1%
0%
10-07 07Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
10-07 08Z 13%
3%
0%
0%
10-07 09Z 17%
5%
0%
0%
10-07 10Z 22%
6%
0%
0%
10-07 11Z 24%
7%
1%
0%
10-07 12Z 12%
3%
0%
0%
10-07 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 19Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 22Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-07 23Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 00Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 01Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 02Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 03Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 04Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 05Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 06Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 07Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-08 19Z 11%
3%
0%
0%
10-08 20Z 15%
4%
0%
0%
10-08 21Z 15%
4%
0%
0%
10-08 22Z 20%
5%
0%
0%
10-08 23Z 22%
6%
1%
0%
10-09 00Z 21%
6%
1%
0%
10-09 01Z 21%
6%
1%
0%
10-09 02Z 19%
5%
0%
0%
10-09 03Z 23%
6%
1%
0%
10-09 04Z 16%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 05Z 16%
4%
0%
0%
10-09 06Z 35%
8%
1%
0%
10-09 07Z 28%
7%
0%
0%
10-09 08Z 28%
7%
0%
0%
10-09 09Z 29%
8%
1%
0%
10-09 10Z 29%
8%
1%
0%
10-09 11Z 29%
8%
1%
0%
10-09 12Z 22%
6%
0%
0%
10-09 13Z 25%
7%
1%
0%
10-09 14Z 26%
7%
1%
0%
10-09 15Z 26%
7%
1%
0%
10-09 16Z 31%
8%
1%
0%
10-09 17Z 37%
10%
1%
0%
10-09 18Z 40%
10%
1%
0%
10-09 19Z 36%
11%
1%
0%
10-09 20Z 36%
11%
1%
0%
10-09 21Z 36%
11%
1%
0%
10-09 22Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
10-09 23Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
10-10 00Z 17%
5%
0%
0%
10-10 01Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 02Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 03Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 04Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 05Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 06Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 07Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 12Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 14Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 19Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-10 20Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 21Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 22Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-10 23Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 00Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 01Z 12%
3%
0%
0%
10-11 02Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 03Z 6%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 04Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 05Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 06Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 07Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 08Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 09Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
10-11 10Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
10-11 11Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 12Z 9%
3%
0%
0%
10-11 13Z 12%
3%
0%
0%
10-11 14Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 15Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
10-11 16Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 17Z 9%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 18Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
10-11 19Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 20Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 21Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 22Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
10-11 23Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
Membury village — best estimate of rain at the village
(EA gauge forecasts × on-site calibration)
Weighted composite of the three gauge forecasts above:
0.51·Goren + 0.31·Chards Snowdon Hill + 0.13·Raymonds Hill, fitted 2026-06-10 against the village's own
daily gauge (42 months). The village receives ~7% less rain than the
raw gauge average. Band edges assume the gauges co-vary
(they correlate at r ≈ 0.95); no exceedance table here because
threshold probabilities don't combine across gauges.
5.5 mm total (sum of hourly medians)
· wettest hour 21Z :
0.2 mm/h
(80% band 0.0–1.0)
· 36% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Predicted 09Z→09Z daily totals (sum of hourly village medians, at +120h)
Rain-day (09Z→09Z) Predicted total Tue 06 Oct 1.4 mm Wed 07 Oct 0.6 mm Thu 08 Oct 1.3 mm Fri 09 Oct 2.3 mm Sat 10 Oct 0.4 mm
NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Membury, East Devon