Rain +120h
NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.
NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Membury, East Devon
Chards Snowdon Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Fri 19 Jun 4%
4% at 23Z
Sat 20 Jun 9%
4% at 17Z
Sun 21 Jun 3%
2% at 21Z
Mon 22 Jun 6%
3% at 00Z
Tue 23 Jun 3%
2% at 14Z
Wed 24 Jun 2%
2% at 18Z
Thu 25 Jun 4%
2% at 08Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
06-20 00Z 11%
17%
06-20 01Z 11%
17%
06-20 02Z 10%
17%
06-20 03Z 10%
17%
06-20 04Z 9%
17%
06-20 05Z 9%
17%
06-20 06Z 11%
33%
06-20 07Z 16%
50%
06-20 08Z 16%
50%
06-20 09Z 15%
50%
06-20 10Z 13%
50%
06-20 11Z 13%
50%
06-20 12Z 13%
33%
06-20 13Z 13%
33%
06-20 14Z 8%
17%
06-20 15Z 4%
17%
06-20 16Z 4%
17%
06-20 17Z 4%
17%
06-20 18Z 4%
17%
06-20 19Z 5%
33%
06-20 20Z 9%
33%
06-20 21Z 7%
33%
06-20 22Z 6%
17%
06-20 23Z 6%
17%
06-21 00Z 10%
17%
06-21 01Z 10%
17%
06-21 02Z 2%
0%
06-21 03Z 2%
0%
06-21 04Z 2%
0%
06-21 05Z 2%
0%
06-21 06Z 2%
0%
06-21 07Z 2%
0%
06-21 08Z 3%
0%
06-21 09Z 3%
0%
06-21 10Z 3%
0%
06-21 11Z 3%
0%
06-21 12Z 3%
0%
06-21 13Z 3%
0%
06-21 14Z 3%
0%
06-21 15Z 4%
0%
06-21 16Z 2%
0%
06-21 17Z 2%
0%
06-21 18Z 2%
0%
06-21 19Z 2%
0%
06-21 20Z 3%
0%
06-21 21Z 2%
0%
06-21 22Z 2%
0%
06-21 23Z 2%
0%
06-22 00Z 3%
0%
06-22 01Z 7%
33%
06-22 02Z 7%
33%
06-22 03Z 7%
33%
06-22 04Z 6%
17%
06-22 05Z 6%
17%
06-22 06Z 8%
17%
06-22 07Z 6%
17%
06-22 08Z 6%
17%
06-22 09Z 6%
17%
06-22 10Z 8%
33%
06-22 11Z 8%
33%
06-22 12Z 8%
33%
06-22 13Z 6%
17%
06-22 14Z 10%
33%
06-22 15Z 10%
33%
06-22 16Z 4%
17%
06-22 17Z 4%
17%
06-22 18Z 4%
17%
06-22 19Z 8%
17%
06-22 20Z 7%
17%
06-22 21Z 4%
17%
06-22 22Z 4%
17%
06-22 23Z 5%
17%
06-23 00Z 8%
17%
06-23 01Z 8%
17%
06-23 02Z 2%
0%
06-23 03Z 2%
0%
06-23 04Z 2%
0%
06-23 05Z 2%
0%
06-23 06Z 2%
0%
06-23 07Z 2%
0%
06-23 08Z 3%
0%
06-23 09Z 3%
0%
06-23 10Z 2%
0%
06-23 11Z 2%
0%
06-23 12Z 2%
0%
06-23 13Z 2%
0%
06-23 14Z 2%
0%
06-23 15Z 3%
0%
06-23 16Z 2%
0%
06-23 17Z 2%
0%
06-23 18Z 2%
0%
06-23 19Z 2%
0%
06-23 20Z 4%
0%
06-23 21Z 2%
0%
06-23 22Z 2%
0%
06-23 23Z 2%
0%
06-24 00Z 2%
0%
06-24 01Z 2%
0%
06-24 02Z 2%
0%
06-24 03Z 2%
0%
06-24 04Z 2%
0%
06-24 05Z 2%
0%
06-24 06Z 2%
0%
06-24 07Z 2%
0%
06-24 08Z 2%
0%
06-24 09Z 2%
0%
06-24 10Z 2%
0%
06-24 11Z 2%
0%
06-24 12Z 2%
0%
06-24 13Z 2%
0%
06-24 14Z 2%
0%
06-24 15Z 2%
0%
06-24 16Z 2%
0%
06-24 17Z 2%
0%
06-24 18Z 2%
0%
06-24 19Z 2%
0%
06-24 20Z 3%
0%
06-24 21Z 2%
0%
06-24 22Z 3%
0%
06-24 23Z 3%
0%
06-25 00Z 2%
0%
06-25 01Z 2%
0%
06-25 02Z 2%
0%
06-25 03Z 2%
0%
06-25 04Z 3%
0%
06-25 05Z 3%
0%
06-25 06Z 3%
0%
06-25 07Z 3%
0%
06-25 08Z 2%
0%
06-25 09Z 2%
0%
06-25 10Z 2%
0%
06-25 11Z 2%
0%
06-25 12Z 2%
0%
06-25 13Z 2%
0%
06-25 14Z 2%
0%
06-25 15Z 4%
0%
06-25 16Z 4%
0%
06-25 17Z 4%
0%
06-25 18Z 3%
0%
06-25 19Z 12%
33%
06-25 20Z 10%
33%
06-25 21Z 9%
33%
06-25 22Z 7%
17%
06-25 23Z 6%
17%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 10%
at 14Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
06-20 22Z 5%
2%
0%
0%
06-20 23Z 5%
2%
0%
0%
06-21 00Z 5%
2%
0%
0%
06-21 01Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-21 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 04Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 05Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 06Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 07Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 10Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 01Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 02Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 03Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 04Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 05Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 06Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 07Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 10Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 11Z 4%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 12Z 8%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 13Z 7%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 14Z 10%
4%
1%
0%
06-22 15Z 9%
4%
0%
0%
06-22 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 19Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 20Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 21Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 22Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 23Z 9%
3%
0%
0%
06-23 00Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-23 01Z 8%
3%
0%
0%
06-23 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 03Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 04Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 05Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 06Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 07Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 23Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 04Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 05Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 06Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 07Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 23Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 01Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 04Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 05Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 06Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 11Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 12Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 13Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 14Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 15Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 19Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 20Z 5%
2%
0%
0%
06-25 21Z 5%
2%
0%
0%
06-25 22Z 4%
2%
0%
0%
06-25 23Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
Goren
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Fri 19 Jun 7%
7% at 22Z
Sat 20 Jun 10%
5% at 15Z
Sun 21 Jun 5%
3% at 21Z
Mon 22 Jun 9%
4% at 17Z
Tue 23 Jun 4%
3% at 15Z
Wed 24 Jun 4%
3% at 21Z
Thu 25 Jun 6%
4% at 00Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
06-20 00Z 11%
17%
06-20 01Z 11%
17%
06-20 02Z 11%
17%
06-20 03Z 11%
17%
06-20 04Z 10%
17%
06-20 05Z 9%
17%
06-20 06Z 13%
33%
06-20 07Z 14%
50%
06-20 08Z 16%
50%
06-20 09Z 17%
50%
06-20 10Z 15%
50%
06-20 11Z 14%
50%
06-20 12Z 13%
33%
06-20 13Z 13%
33%
06-20 14Z 6%
17%
06-20 15Z 5%
17%
06-20 16Z 5%
17%
06-20 17Z 5%
17%
06-20 18Z 5%
17%
06-20 19Z 10%
33%
06-20 20Z 10%
33%
06-20 21Z 8%
33%
06-20 22Z 8%
17%
06-20 23Z 8%
17%
06-21 00Z 8%
17%
06-21 01Z 8%
17%
06-21 02Z 4%
0%
06-21 03Z 4%
0%
06-21 04Z 4%
0%
06-21 05Z 4%
0%
06-21 06Z 4%
0%
06-21 07Z 4%
0%
06-21 08Z 6%
0%
06-21 09Z 6%
0%
06-21 10Z 6%
0%
06-21 11Z 6%
0%
06-21 12Z 6%
0%
06-21 13Z 6%
0%
06-21 14Z 6%
0%
06-21 15Z 5%
0%
06-21 16Z 5%
0%
06-21 17Z 5%
0%
06-21 18Z 5%
0%
06-21 19Z 5%
0%
06-21 20Z 5%
0%
06-21 21Z 3%
0%
06-21 22Z 3%
0%
06-21 23Z 4%
0%
06-22 00Z 5%
0%
06-22 01Z 10%
33%
06-22 02Z 9%
33%
06-22 03Z 10%
33%
06-22 04Z 9%
17%
06-22 05Z 9%
17%
06-22 06Z 12%
17%
06-22 07Z 8%
17%
06-22 08Z 8%
17%
06-22 09Z 8%
17%
06-22 10Z 9%
33%
06-22 11Z 9%
33%
06-22 12Z 12%
33%
06-22 13Z 9%
17%
06-22 14Z 13%
33%
06-22 15Z 17%
33%
06-22 16Z 4%
17%
06-22 17Z 4%
17%
06-22 18Z 4%
17%
06-22 19Z 7%
17%
06-22 20Z 9%
17%
06-22 21Z 8%
17%
06-22 22Z 8%
17%
06-22 23Z 8%
17%
06-23 00Z 12%
17%
06-23 01Z 12%
17%
06-23 02Z 4%
0%
06-23 03Z 4%
0%
06-23 04Z 4%
0%
06-23 05Z 4%
0%
06-23 06Z 4%
0%
06-23 07Z 4%
0%
06-23 08Z 4%
0%
06-23 09Z 4%
0%
06-23 10Z 4%
0%
06-23 11Z 4%
0%
06-23 12Z 4%
0%
06-23 13Z 4%
0%
06-23 14Z 4%
0%
06-23 15Z 3%
0%
06-23 16Z 3%
0%
06-23 17Z 3%
0%
06-23 18Z 3%
0%
06-23 19Z 3%
0%
06-23 20Z 5%
0%
06-23 21Z 3%
0%
06-23 22Z 3%
0%
06-23 23Z 4%
0%
06-24 00Z 4%
0%
06-24 01Z 4%
0%
06-24 02Z 4%
0%
06-24 03Z 4%
0%
06-24 04Z 4%
0%
06-24 05Z 4%
0%
06-24 06Z 4%
0%
06-24 07Z 4%
0%
06-24 08Z 4%
0%
06-24 09Z 4%
0%
06-24 10Z 4%
0%
06-24 11Z 4%
0%
06-24 12Z 3%
0%
06-24 13Z 3%
0%
06-24 14Z 3%
0%
06-24 15Z 3%
0%
06-24 16Z 3%
0%
06-24 17Z 3%
0%
06-24 18Z 3%
0%
06-24 19Z 3%
0%
06-24 20Z 5%
0%
06-24 21Z 3%
0%
06-24 22Z 3%
0%
06-24 23Z 3%
0%
06-25 00Z 4%
0%
06-25 01Z 4%
0%
06-25 02Z 4%
0%
06-25 03Z 4%
0%
06-25 04Z 4%
0%
06-25 05Z 4%
0%
06-25 06Z 4%
0%
06-25 07Z 4%
0%
06-25 08Z 4%
0%
06-25 09Z 4%
0%
06-25 10Z 4%
0%
06-25 11Z 4%
0%
06-25 12Z 5%
0%
06-25 13Z 5%
0%
06-25 14Z 5%
0%
06-25 15Z 5%
0%
06-25 16Z 5%
0%
06-25 17Z 5%
0%
06-25 18Z 5%
0%
06-25 19Z 14%
33%
06-25 20Z 12%
33%
06-25 21Z 10%
33%
06-25 22Z 9%
17%
06-25 23Z 9%
17%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
2.1 mm total (sum of hourly medians)
· wettest hour 14Z :
0.2 mm/h
(80% band 0.0–0.5)
· 13% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
06-20 22Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-20 23Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-21 00Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-21 01Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-21 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 03Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 04Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 05Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 07Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 11Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 12Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 14Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 15Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-21 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 01Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 02Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 03Z 6%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 04Z 6%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 05Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 06Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 07Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 08Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 10Z 5%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 11Z 5%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 12Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 13Z 7%
4%
1%
1%
06-22 14Z 13%
7%
3%
1%
06-22 15Z 13%
7%
2%
1%
06-22 16Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 17Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 18Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 19Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 20Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 21Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 22Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 23Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
06-23 00Z 12%
3%
0%
0%
06-23 01Z 12%
3%
0%
0%
06-23 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 04Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 05Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 06Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 07Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 11Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 12Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 14Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 15Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-23 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 23Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 03Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 04Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 05Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 06Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 07Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 09Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 11Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 12Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 14Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 15Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-24 19Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 20Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 21Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 22Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 23Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 00Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 01Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 02Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 03Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 04Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 05Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 06Z 2%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 07Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 08Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 09Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 10Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 11Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 12Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 13Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 14Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 15Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 16Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 17Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 18Z 2%
0%
0%
0%
06-25 19Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 20Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 21Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 22Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 23Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
Raymonds Hill
Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
Fri 19 Jun 6%
6% at 22Z
Sat 20 Jun 9%
5% at 18Z
Sun 21 Jun 4%
2% at 02Z
Mon 22 Jun 8%
4% at 00Z
Tue 23 Jun 4%
3% at 19Z
Wed 24 Jun 3%
2% at 19Z
Thu 25 Jun 4%
3% at 17Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
06-20 00Z 9%
17%
06-20 01Z 9%
17%
06-20 02Z 8%
17%
06-20 03Z 8%
17%
06-20 04Z 7%
17%
06-20 05Z 8%
17%
06-20 06Z 17%
33%
06-20 07Z 12%
50%
06-20 08Z 12%
50%
06-20 09Z 11%
50%
06-20 10Z 15%
50%
06-20 11Z 13%
50%
06-20 12Z 11%
33%
06-20 13Z 12%
33%
06-20 14Z 7%
17%
06-20 15Z 5%
17%
06-20 16Z 5%
17%
06-20 17Z 5%
17%
06-20 18Z 5%
17%
06-20 19Z 7%
33%
06-20 20Z 10%
33%
06-20 21Z 6%
33%
06-20 22Z 7%
17%
06-20 23Z 6%
17%
06-21 00Z 7%
17%
06-21 01Z 7%
17%
06-21 02Z 2%
0%
06-21 03Z 3%
0%
06-21 04Z 3%
0%
06-21 05Z 3%
0%
06-21 06Z 3%
0%
06-21 07Z 3%
0%
06-21 08Z 4%
0%
06-21 09Z 4%
0%
06-21 10Z 4%
0%
06-21 11Z 4%
0%
06-21 12Z 4%
0%
06-21 13Z 4%
0%
06-21 14Z 4%
0%
06-21 15Z 4%
0%
06-21 16Z 4%
0%
06-21 17Z 4%
0%
06-21 18Z 3%
0%
06-21 19Z 3%
0%
06-21 20Z 4%
0%
06-21 21Z 3%
0%
06-21 22Z 3%
0%
06-21 23Z 3%
0%
06-22 00Z 4%
0%
06-22 01Z 7%
33%
06-22 02Z 7%
33%
06-22 03Z 8%
33%
06-22 04Z 5%
17%
06-22 05Z 5%
17%
06-22 06Z 12%
17%
06-22 07Z 7%
17%
06-22 08Z 7%
17%
06-22 09Z 7%
17%
06-22 10Z 8%
33%
06-22 11Z 8%
33%
06-22 12Z 9%
33%
06-22 13Z 10%
17%
06-22 14Z 12%
33%
06-22 15Z 21%
33%
06-22 16Z 4%
17%
06-22 17Z 4%
17%
06-22 18Z 4%
17%
06-22 19Z 9%
17%
06-22 20Z 11%
17%
06-22 21Z 6%
17%
06-22 22Z 7%
17%
06-22 23Z 9%
17%
06-23 00Z 11%
17%
06-23 01Z 11%
17%
06-23 02Z 4%
0%
06-23 03Z 4%
0%
06-23 04Z 4%
0%
06-23 05Z 5%
0%
06-23 06Z 4%
0%
06-23 07Z 5%
0%
06-23 08Z 5%
0%
06-23 09Z 5%
0%
06-23 10Z 4%
0%
06-23 11Z 4%
0%
06-23 12Z 5%
0%
06-23 13Z 4%
0%
06-23 14Z 4%
0%
06-23 15Z 3%
0%
06-23 16Z 3%
0%
06-23 17Z 3%
0%
06-23 18Z 3%
0%
06-23 19Z 3%
0%
06-23 20Z 4%
0%
06-23 21Z 3%
0%
06-23 22Z 3%
0%
06-23 23Z 3%
0%
06-24 00Z 3%
0%
06-24 01Z 3%
0%
06-24 02Z 3%
0%
06-24 03Z 3%
0%
06-24 04Z 4%
0%
06-24 05Z 4%
0%
06-24 06Z 3%
0%
06-24 07Z 3%
0%
06-24 08Z 3%
0%
06-24 09Z 3%
0%
06-24 10Z 3%
0%
06-24 11Z 3%
0%
06-24 12Z 3%
0%
06-24 13Z 2%
0%
06-24 14Z 2%
0%
06-24 15Z 2%
0%
06-24 16Z 2%
0%
06-24 17Z 2%
0%
06-24 18Z 2%
0%
06-24 19Z 2%
0%
06-24 20Z 4%
0%
06-24 21Z 3%
0%
06-24 22Z 3%
0%
06-24 23Z 3%
0%
06-25 00Z 4%
0%
06-25 01Z 4%
0%
06-25 02Z 4%
0%
06-25 03Z 4%
0%
06-25 04Z 4%
0%
06-25 05Z 4%
0%
06-25 06Z 4%
0%
06-25 07Z 3%
0%
06-25 08Z 4%
0%
06-25 09Z 4%
0%
06-25 10Z 4%
0%
06-25 11Z 4%
0%
06-25 12Z 4%
0%
06-25 13Z 4%
0%
06-25 14Z 4%
0%
06-25 15Z 3%
0%
06-25 16Z 3%
0%
06-25 17Z 3%
0%
06-25 18Z 3%
0%
06-25 19Z 8%
33%
06-25 20Z 7%
33%
06-25 21Z 7%
33%
06-25 22Z 5%
17%
06-25 23Z 5%
17%
How much rain? (Phase 3f, NGBoost-LogNormal · Stage 1 = Phase 3a)
Dry day expected.
Peak chance of any rain: 12%
at 14Z .
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Exceedance probabilities — hourly P(rain ≥ threshold)
Valid time
P≥0.1
P≥1
P≥5
P≥10
06-20 22Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-20 23Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-21 00Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-21 01Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-21 02Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 03Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 04Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 05Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 06Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 07Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 08Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 09Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 12Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 14Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 15Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 19Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 20Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 21Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 22Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-21 23Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 01Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 02Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 03Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 04Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 05Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 06Z 11%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 07Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 08Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 09Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 10Z 5%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 11Z 5%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 12Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 13Z 7%
3%
0%
0%
06-22 14Z 12%
5%
1%
0%
06-22 15Z 12%
5%
1%
0%
06-22 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-22 19Z 6%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 20Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 21Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 22Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
06-22 23Z 8%
2%
0%
0%
06-23 00Z 9%
3%
0%
0%
06-23 01Z 10%
3%
0%
0%
06-23 02Z 7%
2%
0%
0%
06-23 03Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 04Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 05Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 06Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 07Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 08Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 09Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 12Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 14Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 15Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 19Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 20Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-23 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 01Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 02Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 03Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 04Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 05Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 06Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 07Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 08Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 09Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 12Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 14Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 15Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 19Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 20Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 21Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 22Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-24 23Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 00Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 01Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 02Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 03Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 04Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 05Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 06Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 07Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 08Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 09Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 10Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 11Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 12Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 13Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 14Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 15Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 16Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 17Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 18Z 3%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 19Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 20Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 21Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 22Z 5%
1%
0%
0%
06-25 23Z 4%
1%
0%
0%
Membury village — best estimate of rain at the village
(EA gauge forecasts × on-site calibration)
Weighted composite of the three gauge forecasts above:
0.51·Goren + 0.31·Chards Snowdon Hill + 0.13·Raymonds Hill, fitted 2026-06-10 against the village's own
daily gauge (42 months). The village receives ~7% less rain than the
raw gauge average. Band edges assume the gauges co-vary
(they correlate at r ≈ 0.95); no exceedance table here because
threshold probabilities don't combine across gauges.
2.1 mm total (sum of hourly medians)
· wettest hour 14Z :
0.1 mm/h
(80% band 0.0–0.3)
· 12% chance of any rain in the peak hour
Hour-by-hour distribution below.
Predicted 09Z→09Z daily totals (sum of hourly village medians, at +120h)
Rain-day (09Z→09Z) Predicted total Sat 20 Jun 0.8 mm Sun 21 Jun 0.4 mm Mon 22 Jun 0.8 mm Tue 23 Jun 0.3 mm Wed 24 Jun 0.2 mm
NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Membury, East Devon