WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall
Skill — rain
P(wet) vs observed wet hours, then rolling Brier per phase.
P(wet) vs observed wet-hour
Blue bands = observed wet hours (≥ 0.1 mm). MO Spot PoP uses a looser "any measurable precip" threshold — read it as direction-of-effect.
Trengwainton
Phase 3c (rich)
Phase 3a (lean)
Phase comparison — +24h lead
Rolling Brier (P(wet))
Trengwainton — 30-day rolling Brier per (version, lead). Lower better.