WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall

Rain +48h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Sennen, Cornwall

St Erth

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Fri 19 Jun	18%	18% at 22Z
Sat 20 Jun	7%	2% at 20Z
Sun 21 Jun	2%	2% at 08Z
Mon 22 Jun	4%	2% at 01Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
06-20 00Z	34%	57%
06-20 01Z	14%	29%
06-20 02Z	23%	43%
06-20 03Z	15%	29%
06-20 04Z	15%	29%
06-20 05Z	9%	14%
06-20 06Z	10%	29%
06-20 07Z	4%	0%
06-20 08Z	3%	0%
06-20 09Z	2%	0%
06-20 10Z	2%	0%
06-20 11Z	2%	0%
06-20 12Z	2%	0%
06-20 13Z	9%	29%
06-20 14Z	5%	14%
06-20 15Z	4%	14%
06-20 16Z	2%	0%
06-20 17Z	2%	0%
06-20 18Z	2%	0%
06-20 19Z	2%	0%
06-20 20Z	2%	0%
06-20 21Z	2%	0%
06-20 22Z	3%	0%
06-20 23Z	2%	0%
06-21 00Z	3%	0%
06-21 01Z	3%	0%
06-21 02Z	3%	0%
06-21 03Z	3%	0%
06-21 04Z	3%	0%
06-21 05Z	4%	0%
06-21 06Z	2%	0%
06-21 07Z	2%	0%
06-21 08Z	2%	0%
06-21 09Z	2%	0%
06-21 10Z	2%	0%
06-21 11Z	2%	0%
06-21 12Z	2%	0%
06-21 13Z	2%	0%
06-21 14Z	2%	0%
06-21 15Z	2%	0%
06-21 16Z	2%	0%
06-21 17Z	2%	0%
06-21 18Z	2%	0%
06-21 19Z	2%	0%
06-21 20Z	2%	0%
06-21 21Z	2%	0%
06-21 22Z	2%	0%
06-21 23Z	2%	0%
06-22 00Z	2%	0%
06-22 01Z	2%	0%
06-22 02Z	3%	14%
06-22 03Z	3%	0%
06-22 04Z	3%	0%
06-22 05Z	4%	14%
06-22 06Z	3%	0%
06-22 07Z	8%	14%
06-22 08Z	8%	14%
06-22 09Z	6%	14%
06-22 10Z	3%	0%
06-22 11Z	4%	14%
06-22 12Z	3%	0%
06-22 13Z	3%	0%
06-22 14Z	3%	0%
06-22 15Z	3%	0%
06-22 16Z	3%	0%
06-22 17Z	4%	0%
06-22 18Z	4%	0%
06-22 19Z	4%	14%
06-22 20Z	4%	14%
06-22 21Z	4%	14%
06-22 22Z	4%	14%
06-22 23Z	4%	14%

St Ives Towednack

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Fri 19 Jun	30%	25% at 23Z
Sat 20 Jun	12%	2% at 18Z
Sun 21 Jun	3%	2% at 19Z
Mon 22 Jun	5%	3% at 00Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
06-20 00Z	42%	57%
06-20 01Z	31%	29%
06-20 02Z	35%	43%
06-20 03Z	32%	29%
06-20 04Z	31%	29%
06-20 05Z	15%	14%
06-20 06Z	12%	29%
06-20 07Z	4%	0%
06-20 08Z	4%	0%
06-20 09Z	4%	0%
06-20 10Z	3%	0%
06-20 11Z	3%	0%
06-20 12Z	3%	0%
06-20 13Z	13%	29%
06-20 14Z	8%	14%
06-20 15Z	6%	14%
06-20 16Z	5%	0%
06-20 17Z	5%	0%
06-20 18Z	2%	0%
06-20 19Z	2%	0%
06-20 20Z	3%	0%
06-20 21Z	3%	0%
06-20 22Z	5%	0%
06-20 23Z	5%	0%
06-21 00Z	3%	0%
06-21 01Z	3%	0%
06-21 02Z	3%	0%
06-21 03Z	4%	0%
06-21 04Z	5%	0%
06-21 05Z	7%	0%
06-21 06Z	4%	0%
06-21 07Z	3%	0%
06-21 08Z	2%	0%
06-21 09Z	2%	0%
06-21 10Z	2%	0%
06-21 11Z	2%	0%
06-21 12Z	2%	0%
06-21 13Z	2%	0%
06-21 14Z	2%	0%
06-21 15Z	2%	0%
06-21 16Z	3%	0%
06-21 17Z	2%	0%
06-21 18Z	2%	0%
06-21 19Z	2%	0%
06-21 20Z	2%	0%
06-21 21Z	2%	0%
06-21 22Z	2%	0%
06-21 23Z	3%	0%
06-22 00Z	3%	0%
06-22 01Z	3%	0%
06-22 02Z	5%	14%
06-22 03Z	4%	0%
06-22 04Z	4%	0%
06-22 05Z	7%	14%
06-22 06Z	3%	0%
06-22 07Z	10%	14%
06-22 08Z	11%	14%
06-22 09Z	9%	14%
06-22 10Z	3%	0%
06-22 11Z	7%	14%
06-22 12Z	3%	0%
06-22 13Z	3%	0%
06-22 14Z	3%	0%
06-22 15Z	3%	0%
06-22 16Z	3%	0%
06-22 17Z	3%	0%
06-22 18Z	3%	0%
06-22 19Z	6%	14%
06-22 20Z	6%	14%
06-22 21Z	6%	14%
06-22 22Z	7%	14%
06-22 23Z	8%	14%

Trengwainton

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Fri 19 Jun	38%	36% at 23Z
Sat 20 Jun	7%	1% at 18Z
Sun 21 Jun	2%	1% at 12Z
Mon 22 Jun	4%	2% at 01Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
06-20 00Z	42%	57%
06-20 01Z	19%	29%
06-20 02Z	17%	43%
06-20 03Z	15%	29%
06-20 04Z	13%	29%
06-20 05Z	8%	14%
06-20 06Z	10%	29%
06-20 07Z	3%	0%
06-20 08Z	3%	0%
06-20 09Z	2%	0%
06-20 10Z	2%	0%
06-20 11Z	2%	0%
06-20 12Z	2%	0%
06-20 13Z	8%	29%
06-20 14Z	5%	14%
06-20 15Z	5%	14%
06-20 16Z	2%	0%
06-20 17Z	2%	0%
06-20 18Z	1%	0%
06-20 19Z	1%	0%
06-20 20Z	1%	0%
06-20 21Z	2%	0%
06-20 22Z	3%	0%
06-20 23Z	3%	0%
06-21 00Z	3%	0%
06-21 01Z	3%	0%
06-21 02Z	3%	0%
06-21 03Z	3%	0%
06-21 04Z	3%	0%
06-21 05Z	2%	0%
06-21 06Z	2%	0%
06-21 07Z	1%	0%
06-21 08Z	1%	0%
06-21 09Z	1%	0%
06-21 10Z	1%	0%
06-21 11Z	1%	0%
06-21 12Z	1%	0%
06-21 13Z	1%	0%
06-21 14Z	1%	0%
06-21 15Z	1%	0%
06-21 16Z	2%	0%
06-21 17Z	1%	0%
06-21 18Z	1%	0%
06-21 19Z	1%	0%
06-21 20Z	1%	0%
06-21 21Z	1%	0%
06-21 22Z	1%	0%
06-21 23Z	1%	0%
06-22 00Z	2%	0%
06-22 01Z	2%	0%
06-22 02Z	6%	14%
06-22 03Z	2%	0%
06-22 04Z	3%	0%
06-22 05Z	8%	14%
06-22 06Z	2%	0%
06-22 07Z	7%	14%
06-22 08Z	9%	14%
06-22 09Z	8%	14%
06-22 10Z	3%	0%
06-22 11Z	6%	14%
06-22 12Z	3%	0%
06-22 13Z	3%	0%
06-22 14Z	3%	0%
06-22 15Z	2%	0%
06-22 16Z	2%	0%
06-22 17Z	2%	0%
06-22 18Z	2%	0%
06-22 19Z	5%	14%
06-22 20Z	5%	14%
06-22 21Z	5%	14%
06-22 22Z	5%	14%
06-22 23Z	6%	14%

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Sennen, Cornwall