WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall

Rain +48h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Sennen, Cornwall

Trengwainton

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
35% 35% at 23Z
20% 8% at 15Z
7% 3% at 19Z
3% 2% at 22Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
38% 71%
48% 71%
41% 43%
42% 43%
32% 29%
25% 29%
32% 43%
17% 29%
13% 29%
12% 14%
13% 14%
12% 14%
15% 29%
11% 29%
10% 29%
8% 14%
8% 14%
12% 43%
10% 29%
19% 43%
14% 29%
17% 43%
16% 57%
17% 43%
9% 14%
17% 57%
17% 43%
17% 43%
14% 43%
11% 29%
7% 14%
7% 14%
5% 14%
6% 29%
5% 14%
5% 14%
5% 14%
6% 14%
4% 14%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
5% 14%
5% 14%
3% 0%
4% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0%
5% 14%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
5% 14%
3% 0%
3% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%

Lands End

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
27% 27% at 23Z
13% 6% at 15Z
5% 1% at 21Z
2% 1% at 22Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
21% 71%
36% 71%
24% 43%
26% 43%
22% 29%
15% 29%
25% 43%
13% 29%
11% 29%
6% 14%
9% 14%
9% 14%
9% 29%
7% 29%
7% 29%
6% 14%
6% 14%
9% 43%
10% 29%
11% 43%
7% 29%
9% 43%
9% 57%
10% 43%
8% 14%
12% 57%
9% 43%
8% 43%
9% 43%
7% 29%
7% 14%
7% 14%
5% 14%
5% 29%
5% 14%
3% 14%
3% 14%
4% 14%
4% 14%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
2% 14%
4% 14%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
2% 0%
3% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
4% 14%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Sennen, Cornwall