WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall

Rain +48h

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Sennen, Cornwall

Trengwainton

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
9% 3% at 14Z
15% 3% at 15Z
12% 2% at 11Z
27% 2% at 19Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
27% 43%
28% 57%
36% 57%
28% 57%
26% 43%
25% 57%
22% 43%
15% 29%
19% 57%
19% 43%
15% 43%
16% 43%
14% 43%
4% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0%
12% 29%
8% 14%
11% 29%
11% 29%
7% 14%
3% 0%
4% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
5% 14%
12% 43%
10% 57%
13% 57%
12% 29%
14% 43%
16% 43%
26% 71%
30% 71%
34% 57%
36% 57%
40% 71%
38% 43%
40% 43%
38% 43%
38% 43%
37% 57%
29% 43%
37% 57%
32% 43%
34% 43%
44% 57%
51% 86%
48% 71%
53% 86%
35% 86%
27% 71%
23% 57%
12% 29%
10% 29%
9% 29%
2% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0%
4% 0%

Lands End

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
7% 2% at 17Z
9% 1% at 13Z
9% 1% at 01Z
13% 1% at 19Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
15% 43%
15% 57%
23% 57%
29% 57%
14% 43%
12% 57%
14% 43%
9% 29%
13% 57%
11% 43%
10% 43%
11% 43%
13% 43%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
7% 29%
4% 14%
8% 29%
8% 29%
4% 14%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
3% 14%
9% 43%
11% 57%
11% 57%
12% 29%
18% 43%
23% 43%
43% 71%
21% 71%
20% 57%
17% 57%
19% 71%
14% 43%
13% 43%
12% 43%
12% 43%
13% 57%
13% 43%
14% 57%
14% 43%
15% 43%
24% 57%
34% 86%
28% 71%
34% 86%
14% 86%
16% 71%
10% 57%
10% 29%
10% 29%
9% 29%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%
1% 0%

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Sennen, Cornwall