WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall

Rain <24hr

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Sennen, Cornwall

Trengwainton

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct	9%	1% at 12Z
Wed 07 Oct	19%	2% at 13Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
10-07 00Z	35%	43%
10-07 01Z	29%	29%
10-07 02Z	38%	43%
10-07 03Z	30%	29%
10-07 04Z	31%	57%
10-07 05Z	26%	43%
10-07 06Z	47%	71%
10-07 07Z	31%	57%
10-07 08Z	24%	43%
10-07 09Z	22%	43%
10-07 10Z	18%	29%
10-07 11Z	17%	29%
10-07 12Z	18%	29%
10-07 13Z	2%	0%
10-07 14Z	3%	0%
10-07 15Z	3%	0%
10-07 16Z	3%	0%
10-07 17Z	3%	0%
10-07 18Z	3%	0%
10-07 19Z	16%	29%
10-07 20Z	13%	43%
10-07 21Z	14%	57%
10-07 22Z	13%	29%
10-07 23Z	12%	43%

Lands End

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)

Date (UTC)	Mean P(wet)	Driest hour
Tue 06 Oct	7%	1% at 12Z
Wed 07 Oct	10%	1% at 18Z

Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)

Valid time	P(wet)	NWPs wet
10-07 00Z	20%	43%
10-07 01Z	12%	29%
10-07 02Z	16%	43%
10-07 03Z	13%	29%
10-07 04Z	19%	57%
10-07 05Z	13%	43%
10-07 06Z	24%	71%
10-07 07Z	14%	57%
10-07 08Z	14%	43%
10-07 09Z	16%	43%
10-07 10Z	8%	29%
10-07 11Z	8%	29%
10-07 12Z	8%	29%
10-07 13Z	1%	0%
10-07 14Z	1%	0%
10-07 15Z	1%	0%
10-07 16Z	1%	0%
10-07 17Z	1%	0%
10-07 18Z	1%	0%
10-07 19Z	5%	29%
10-07 20Z	8%	43%
10-07 21Z	13%	57%
10-07 22Z	6%	29%
10-07 23Z	8%	43%

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Sennen, Cornwall