WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall

Rain <24hr

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Sennen, Cornwall

St Erth

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
22% 18% at 23Z
13% 2% at 21Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
20% 14%
9% 14%
41% 57%
43% 57%
30% 29%
34% 29%
35% 43%
29% 29%
22% 29%
10% 29%
5% 14%
3% 14%
4% 14%
2% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%

St Ives Towednack

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
39% 20% at 23Z
18% 2% at 15Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
18% 14%
14% 14%
50% 57%
51% 57%
43% 29%
44% 29%
49% 43%
40% 29%
38% 29%
28% 29%
7% 14%
6% 14%
4% 14%
3% 0%
3% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%
3% 0%
4% 0%
3% 0%

Trengwainton

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
33% 28% at 23Z
14% 2% at 19Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
25% 14%
17% 14%
51% 57%
50% 57%
33% 29%
29% 29%
38% 43%
20% 29%
18% 29%
13% 29%
6% 14%
5% 14%
5% 14%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
2% 0%
3% 0%

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Sennen, Cornwall