WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Sennen, Cornwall

Rain <24hr

NWP precipitation probability up top; per-station blended P(wet) + rainfall amount in the middle; per-NWP precip rate at the bottom.

NWP precipitation probability — point forecast at Sennen, Cornwall

Trengwainton

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
38% 38% at 23Z
18% 9% at 17Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
20% 29%
32% 43%
39% 57%
37% 57%
30% 43%
17% 29%
28% 43%
22% 43%
13% 29%
15% 43%
18% 57%
15% 57%
12% 43%
13% 57%
10% 43%
10% 43%
10% 29%
9% 29%
13% 43%
13% 43%
16% 43%
13% 43%
16% 43%
11% 29%

Lands End

Daily P(wet) summary — champion conformal calibrator (90% set)
Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour
20% 20% at 23Z
8% 4% at 17Z
Hourly P(wet) — NWP ensemble agreement (per-NWP wet-vote spread)
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet
7% 29%
10% 43%
15% 57%
19% 57%
13% 43%
6% 29%
11% 43%
9% 43%
5% 29%
7% 43%
9% 57%
13% 57%
6% 43%
8% 57%
6% 43%
7% 43%
4% 29%
4% 29%
5% 43%
5% 43%
6% 43%
7% 43%
7% 43%
4% 29%

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Sennen, Cornwall