Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Rain forecast +96h
Per-station P(wet ≥ 0.1 mm/h) on top with the per-NWP PoP overlay
(Phase 3a champion in deep purple, Phase 3c challenger in lighter
purple), then the per-NWP precip rate (mm/h) at the Bonehill
point — only once because the NWP forecasts don't differ between
gauge stations.
Precipitation — P(wet ≥ 0.1 mm/h) vs NWP inputs
Per-station P(wet) on top, plus climatology and per-NWP PoP overlay. The NWP precip rate (mm/h) chart sits below — only once, because the per-NWP forecasts are point values for Bonehill that don't differ per gauge station.
Bellever Dartmoor
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
n_h
conf wet h
amb h
conf dry h
9%
7% at 19Z
7
0
0
0
10%
3% at 23Z
24
0
0
0
17%
4% at 01Z
24
0
0
0
10%
3% at 22Z
24
0
0
24
9%
4% at 01Z
24
0
0
24
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
Confidence
Conformal (90% set)
12%
50%
low
—
11%
50%
low
—
7%
33%
medium
—
7%
33%
medium
—
7%
33%
medium
—
8%
33%
medium
—
9%
33%
medium
—
16%
33%
medium
—
4%
0%
high
—
4%
0%
high
—
4%
0%
high
—
4%
0%
high
—
4%
0%
high
—
3%
0%
high
—
3%
0%
high
—
13%
17%
high
—
12%
17%
high
—
15%
50%
low
—
16%
50%
low
—
14%
50%
low
—
17%
67%
medium
—
21%
67%
medium
—
19%
67%
medium
—
14%
50%
low
—
13%
50%
low
—
13%
50%
low
—
7%
33%
medium
—
8%
33%
medium
—
5%
17%
high
—
3%
0%
high
—
3%
0%
high
—
6%
17%
high
—
4%
17%
high
—
14%
17%
high
—
16%
33%
medium
—
17%
17%
high
—
16%
17%
high
—
16%
33%
medium
—
27%
17%
high
—
19%
33%
medium
—
16%
33%
medium
—
20%
67%
medium
—
18%
67%
medium
—
29%
83%
high
—
23%
83%
high
—
24%
67%
medium
—
22%
67%
medium
—
14%
33%
medium
—
15%
33%
medium
—
16%
33%
medium
—
13%
33%
medium
—
10%
50%
low
—
11%
50%
low
—
14%
50%
low
—
18%
50%
low
—
14%
33%
medium
confident dry
16%
33%
medium
confident dry
3%
0%
high
confident dry
4%
0%
high
confident dry
4%
0%
high
confident dry
4%
0%
high
confident dry
4%
0%
high
confident dry
21%
17%
high
confident dry
12%
17%
high
confident dry
12%
33%
medium
confident dry
12%
50%
low
confident dry
14%
50%
low
confident dry
16%
67%
medium
confident dry
17%
67%
medium
confident dry
16%
83%
high
confident dry
12%
67%
medium
confident dry
11%
50%
low
confident dry
12%
50%
low
confident dry
10%
50%
low
confident dry
6%
33%
medium
confident dry
6%
17%
high
confident dry
6%
17%
high
confident dry
3%
0%
high
confident dry
3%
0%
high
confident dry
6%
17%
high
confident dry
4%
0%
high
confident dry
4%
0%
high
confident dry
5%
0%
high
confident dry
6%
0%
high
confident dry
6%
0%
high
confident dry
5%
0%
high
confident dry
11%
17%
high
confident dry
10%
17%
high
confident dry
11%
33%
medium
confident dry
12%
33%
medium
confident dry
10%
33%
medium
confident dry
11%
33%
medium
confident dry
12%
50%
low
confident dry
12%
50%
low
confident dry
12%
50%
low
confident dry
12%
50%
low
confident dry
14%
50%
low
confident dry
11%
50%
low
confident dry
8%
33%
medium
confident dry
8%
33%
medium
confident dry
8%
33%
medium
confident dry
8%
33%
medium
confident dry
8%
33%
medium
confident dry
Bovey Tracey
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
n_h
conf wet h
amb h
conf dry h
6%
2% at 06Z
24
0
0
24
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
Confidence
Conformal (90% set)
4%
17%
high
confident dry
2%
0%
high
confident dry
2%
0%
high
confident dry
2%
0%
high
confident dry
2%
0%
high
confident dry
2%
0%
high
confident dry
2%
0%
high
confident dry
8%
17%
high
confident dry
6%
17%
high
confident dry
5%
33%
medium
confident dry
6%
33%
medium
confident dry
6%
33%
medium
confident dry
8%
33%
medium
confident dry
10%
50%
low
confident dry
8%
50%
low
confident dry
8%
50%
low
confident dry
8%
50%
low
confident dry
10%
50%
low
confident dry
10%
50%
low
confident dry
7%
33%
medium
confident dry
7%
33%
medium
confident dry
5%
33%
medium
confident dry
4%
33%
medium
confident dry
4%
33%
medium
confident dry
Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy
Date (UTC)
Mean P(wet)
Driest hour
n_h
conf wet h
amb h
conf dry h
14%
12% at 21Z
7
0
0
0
11%
5% at 22Z
24
0
0
0
19%
8% at 01Z
24
0
0
0
13%
5% at 22Z
24
0
0
24
11%
7% at 06Z
24
0
0
24
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time
P(wet)
NWPs wet
Confidence
Conformal (90% set)
13%
50%
low
—
14%
50%
low
—
13%
33%
medium
—
13%
33%
medium
—
12%
33%
medium
—
18%
33%
medium
—
19%
33%
medium
—
26%
33%
medium
—
6%
0%
high
—
6%
0%
high
—
6%
0%
high
—
6%
0%
high
—
6%
0%
high
—
6%
0%
high
—
5%
0%
high
—
11%
17%
high
—
10%
17%
high
—
15%
50%
low
—
15%
50%
low
—
13%
50%
low
—
18%
67%
medium
—
19%
67%
medium
—
20%
67%
medium
—
16%
50%
low
—
14%
50%
low
—
13%
50%
low
—
10%
33%
medium
—
11%
33%
medium
—
8%
17%
high
—
5%
0%
high
—
5%
0%
high
—
9%
17%
high
—
8%
17%
high
—
12%
17%
high
—
15%
33%
medium
—
13%
17%
high
—
13%
17%
high
—
13%
33%
medium
—
27%
17%
high
—
21%
33%
medium
—
19%
33%
medium
—
25%
67%
medium
—
22%
67%
medium
—
25%
83%
high
—
29%
83%
high
—
26%
67%
medium
—
25%
67%
medium
—
21%
33%
medium
—
21%
33%
medium
—
21%
33%
medium
—
16%
33%
medium
—
13%
50%
low
—
16%
50%
low
—
17%
50%
low
—
22%
50%
low
—
16%
33%
medium
confident dry
23%
33%
medium
confident dry
6%
0%
high
confident dry
6%
0%
high
confident dry
6%
0%
high
confident dry
6%
0%
high
confident dry
6%
0%
high
confident dry
24%
17%
high
confident dry
11%
17%
high
confident dry
11%
33%
medium
confident dry
12%
50%
low
confident dry
13%
50%
low
confident dry
19%
67%
medium
confident dry
19%
67%
medium
confident dry
20%
83%
high
confident dry
18%
67%
medium
confident dry
16%
50%
low
confident dry
16%
50%
low
confident dry
15%
50%
low
confident dry
13%
33%
medium
confident dry
9%
17%
high
confident dry
10%
17%
high
confident dry
5%
0%
high
confident dry
5%
0%
high
confident dry
9%
17%
high
confident dry
8%
0%
high
confident dry
8%
0%
high
confident dry
7%
0%
high
confident dry
8%
0%
high
confident dry
8%
0%
high
confident dry
7%
0%
high
confident dry
11%
17%
high
confident dry
10%
17%
high
confident dry
10%
33%
medium
confident dry
10%
33%
medium
confident dry
10%
33%
medium
confident dry
13%
33%
medium
confident dry
14%
50%
low
confident dry
12%
50%
low
confident dry
12%
50%
low
confident dry
12%
50%
low
confident dry
13%
50%
low
confident dry
12%
50%
low
confident dry
12%
33%
medium
confident dry
13%
33%
medium
confident dry
12%
33%
medium
confident dry
11%
33%
medium
confident dry
11%
33%
medium
confident dry
NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill