WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain +120h

Per-station P(wet ≥ 0.1 mm/h) — 3a solid, 3c lighter — plus per-NWP precip rate (one chart, point forecast for Bonehill).

Precipitation — P(wet ≥ 0.1 mm/h)

Bellever Dartmoor

Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour n_h conf wet h amb h conf dry h
9% 6% at 23Z 2 0 0 0
7% 4% at 16Z 24 0 0 0
16% 5% at 00Z 24 0 0 0
10% 5% at 19Z 24 0 0 0
13% 6% at 00Z 24 0 0 24
27% 18% at 11Z 24 0 13 11
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Confidence Conformal (90% set)
11% 33% medium —
6% 0% high —
7% 0% high —
9% 17% high —
9% 17% high —
9% 17% high —
8% 0% high —
9% 0% high —
9% 0% high —
9% 17% high —
6% 17% high —
5% 17% high —
11% 33% medium —
11% 33% medium —
11% 17% high —
8% 33% medium —
8% 33% medium —
5% 17% high —
4% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
16% 17% high —
17% 17% high —
20% 17% high —
23% 17% high —
22% 17% high —
21% 17% high —
19% 17% high —
12% 17% high —
11% 17% high —
12% 33% medium —
10% 33% medium —
10% 50% low —
11% 50% low —
17% 67% medium —
18% 67% medium —
18% 67% medium —
20% 67% medium —
20% 67% medium —
16% 67% medium —
16% 67% medium —
17% 67% medium —
18% 50% low —
18% 50% low —
19% 33% medium —
8% 0% high —
7% 0% high —
7% 0% high —
8% 0% high —
8% 0% high —
7% 0% high —
8% 17% high —
14% 33% medium —
11% 33% medium —
10% 33% medium —
8% 33% medium —
12% 50% low —
12% 50% low —
10% 33% medium —
10% 33% medium —
12% 50% low —
12% 50% low —
12% 50% low —
5% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
10% 33% medium —
11% 33% medium —
6% 0% high confident dry
6% 0% high confident dry
6% 0% high confident dry
6% 0% high confident dry
9% 17% high confident dry
8% 17% high confident dry
6% 0% high confident dry
15% 33% medium confident dry
14% 33% medium confident dry
13% 33% medium confident dry
18% 50% low confident dry
19% 50% low confident dry
18% 83% high confident dry
17% 50% low confident dry
15% 50% low confident dry
13% 50% low confident dry
15% 33% medium confident dry
15% 33% medium confident dry
14% 33% medium confident dry
10% 33% medium confident dry
13% 33% medium confident dry
18% 33% medium confident dry
19% 33% medium confident dry
21% 33% medium confident dry
35% 67% medium ambiguous
55% 83% high ambiguous
40% 67% medium ambiguous
41% 67% medium ambiguous
31% 50% low ambiguous
31% 50% low ambiguous
30% 33% medium ambiguous
27% 50% low ambiguous
20% 50% low confident dry
23% 50% low confident dry
19% 50% low confident dry
18% 50% low confident dry
26% 50% low ambiguous
27% 33% medium ambiguous
26% 50% low ambiguous
26% 50% low ambiguous
20% 50% low confident dry
18% 50% low confident dry
20% 50% low confident dry
20% 17% high confident dry
24% 33% medium confident dry
28% 33% medium ambiguous
23% 33% medium confident dry
23% 33% medium confident dry

Bovey Tracey

Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour n_h conf wet h amb h conf dry h
17% 7% at 19Z 24 0 4 20
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Confidence Conformal (90% set)
35% 67% medium ambiguous
51% 83% high ambiguous
27% 67% medium ambiguous
25% 67% medium ambiguous
22% 50% low confident dry
22% 50% low confident dry
23% 33% medium confident dry
23% 50% low confident dry
21% 50% low confident dry
12% 50% low confident dry
8% 50% low confident dry
8% 50% low confident dry
11% 50% low confident dry
8% 33% medium confident dry
8% 50% low confident dry
9% 50% low confident dry
10% 50% low confident dry
10% 50% low confident dry
19% 50% low confident dry
7% 17% high confident dry
10% 33% medium confident dry
13% 33% medium confident dry
11% 33% medium confident dry
12% 33% medium confident dry

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour n_h conf wet h amb h conf dry h
7% 4% at 23Z 2 0 0 0
5% 2% at 17Z 24 0 0 0
14% 5% at 00Z 24 0 0 0
7% 2% at 19Z 24 0 0 0
13% 3% at 00Z 24 0 0 24
25% 13% at 19Z 24 0 3 21
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Confidence Conformal (90% set)
9% 33% medium —
4% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
8% 17% high —
8% 17% high —
9% 17% high —
6% 0% high —
6% 0% high —
6% 0% high —
7% 17% high —
4% 17% high —
3% 17% high —
10% 33% medium —
10% 33% medium —
9% 17% high —
6% 33% medium —
6% 33% medium —
3% 17% high —
2% 0% high —
2% 0% high —
3% 0% high —
2% 0% high —
3% 0% high —
3% 0% high —
3% 0% high —
2% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
14% 17% high —
14% 17% high —
16% 17% high —
15% 17% high —
16% 17% high —
15% 17% high —
13% 17% high —
9% 17% high —
8% 17% high —
10% 33% medium —
9% 33% medium —
6% 50% low —
8% 50% low —
12% 67% medium —
14% 67% medium —
17% 67% medium —
16% 67% medium —
17% 67% medium —
13% 67% medium —
19% 67% medium —
19% 67% medium —
20% 50% low —
23% 50% low —
22% 33% medium —
6% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
6% 0% high —
7% 0% high —
6% 0% high —
5% 0% high —
5% 17% high —
10% 33% medium —
6% 33% medium —
6% 33% medium —
8% 33% medium —
10% 50% low —
10% 50% low —
7% 33% medium —
7% 33% medium —
8% 50% low —
8% 50% low —
8% 50% low —
2% 0% high —
2% 0% high —
3% 0% high —
6% 33% medium —
7% 33% medium —
3% 0% high confident dry
3% 0% high confident dry
4% 0% high confident dry
4% 0% high confident dry
6% 17% high confident dry
5% 17% high confident dry
4% 0% high confident dry
11% 33% medium confident dry
12% 33% medium confident dry
11% 33% medium confident dry
16% 50% low confident dry
25% 50% low confident dry
23% 83% high confident dry
22% 50% low confident dry
17% 50% low confident dry
14% 50% low confident dry
18% 33% medium confident dry
17% 33% medium confident dry
13% 33% medium confident dry
7% 33% medium confident dry
13% 33% medium confident dry
19% 33% medium confident dry
23% 33% medium confident dry
25% 33% medium confident dry
27% 67% medium confident dry
56% 83% high ambiguous
33% 67% medium ambiguous
33% 67% medium ambiguous
24% 50% low confident dry
24% 50% low confident dry
25% 33% medium confident dry
27% 50% low confident dry
25% 50% low confident dry
23% 50% low confident dry
20% 50% low confident dry
19% 50% low confident dry
30% 50% low confident dry
22% 33% medium confident dry
25% 50% low confident dry
23% 50% low confident dry
20% 50% low confident dry
18% 50% low confident dry
19% 50% low confident dry
13% 17% high confident dry
18% 33% medium confident dry
26% 33% medium confident dry
21% 33% medium confident dry
22% 33% medium confident dry

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill