WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain forecast +72h

Per-station P(wet ≥ 0.1 mm/h) on top with the per-NWP PoP overlay (Phase 3a champion in deep purple, Phase 3c challenger in lighter purple), then the per-NWP precip rate (mm/h) at the Bonehill point — only once because the NWP forecasts don't differ between gauge stations.

Precipitation — P(wet ≥ 0.1 mm/h) vs NWP inputs

Per-station P(wet) on top, plus climatology and per-NWP PoP overlay. The NWP precip rate (mm/h) chart sits below — only once, because the per-NWP forecasts are point values for Bonehill that don't differ per gauge station.

Bellever Dartmoor

Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour n_h conf wet h amb h conf dry h
18% 6% at 19Z 7 0 0 0
16% 4% at 22Z 24 0 0 0
30% 4% at 00Z 24 0 12 12
10% 4% at 19Z 24 0 0 24
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Confidence Conformal (90% set)
21% 71% medium —
35% 71% medium —
6% 14% high —
13% 29% medium —
17% 29% medium —
16% 14% high —
16% 14% high —
17% 14% high —
16% 14% high —
17% 14% high —
25% 29% medium —
27% 29% medium —
27% 29% medium —
17% 14% high —
18% 14% high —
14% 14% high —
16% 29% medium —
18% 43% low —
18% 43% low —
12% 43% low —
18% 43% low —
22% 43% low —
18% 43% low —
18% 43% low —
19% 43% low —
26% 43% low —
6% 14% high —
6% 14% high —
5% 14% high —
4% 0% high —
4% 0% high —
4% 0% high confident dry
14% 14% high confident dry
17% 29% medium confident dry
12% 14% high confident dry
27% 43% low ambiguous
35% 43% low ambiguous
12% 14% high confident dry
28% 43% low ambiguous
30% 57% low ambiguous
25% 57% low confident dry
54% 71% medium ambiguous
55% 71% medium ambiguous
28% 71% medium ambiguous
19% 57% low confident dry
50% 57% low ambiguous
48% 57% low ambiguous
62% 71% medium ambiguous
62% 71% medium ambiguous
51% 57% low ambiguous
21% 71% medium confident dry
19% 57% low confident dry
26% 57% low confident dry
13% 14% high confident dry
13% 14% high confident dry
13% 14% high confident dry
21% 29% medium confident dry
9% 14% high confident dry
9% 14% high confident dry
9% 14% high confident dry
9% 14% high confident dry
15% 29% medium confident dry
12% 43% low confident dry
13% 43% low confident dry
14% 43% low confident dry
15% 43% low confident dry
11% 43% low confident dry
9% 43% low confident dry
10% 43% low confident dry
12% 57% low confident dry
11% 57% low confident dry
8% 43% low confident dry
8% 29% medium confident dry
11% 29% medium confident dry
4% 0% high confident dry
6% 14% high confident dry
6% 14% high confident dry
4% 0% high confident dry
5% 0% high confident dry

Bovey Tracey

Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour n_h conf wet h amb h conf dry h
4% 1% at 19Z 24 0 0 24
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Confidence Conformal (90% set)
4% 14% high confident dry
11% 29% medium confident dry
3% 14% high confident dry
3% 14% high confident dry
3% 14% high confident dry
3% 14% high confident dry
9% 29% medium confident dry
10% 43% low confident dry
5% 43% low confident dry
5% 43% low confident dry
3% 43% low confident dry
3% 43% low confident dry
3% 43% low confident dry
3% 43% low confident dry
5% 57% low confident dry
5% 57% low confident dry
2% 43% low confident dry
2% 29% medium confident dry
3% 29% medium confident dry
1% 0% high confident dry
2% 14% high confident dry
2% 14% high confident dry
2% 0% high confident dry
1% 0% high confident dry

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour n_h conf wet h amb h conf dry h
14% 7% at 19Z 7 0 0 0
14% 3% at 23Z 24 0 0 0
25% 4% at 00Z 24 0 7 17
10% 3% at 19Z 24 0 0 24
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Confidence Conformal (90% set)
15% 71% medium —
26% 71% medium —
7% 14% high —
10% 29% medium —
13% 29% medium —
13% 14% high —
15% 14% high —
14% 14% high —
15% 14% high —
14% 14% high —
20% 29% medium —
26% 29% medium —
26% 29% medium —
15% 14% high —
14% 14% high —
11% 14% high —
12% 29% medium —
13% 43% low —
13% 43% low —
13% 43% low —
21% 43% low —
19% 43% low —
19% 43% low —
16% 43% low —
17% 43% low —
17% 43% low —
6% 14% high —
7% 14% high —
7% 14% high —
3% 0% high —
3% 0% high —
4% 0% high confident dry
12% 14% high confident dry
12% 29% medium confident dry
11% 14% high confident dry
14% 43% low confident dry
24% 43% low confident dry
11% 14% high confident dry
20% 43% low confident dry
18% 57% low confident dry
18% 57% low confident dry
50% 71% medium ambiguous
49% 71% medium ambiguous
26% 71% medium confident dry
22% 57% low confident dry
35% 57% low ambiguous
36% 57% low ambiguous
59% 71% medium ambiguous
59% 71% medium ambiguous
43% 57% low ambiguous
21% 71% medium confident dry
15% 57% low confident dry
20% 57% low confident dry
11% 14% high confident dry
12% 14% high confident dry
10% 14% high confident dry
18% 29% medium confident dry
9% 14% high confident dry
9% 14% high confident dry
9% 14% high confident dry
9% 14% high confident dry
9% 29% medium confident dry
10% 43% low confident dry
10% 43% low confident dry
10% 43% low confident dry
13% 43% low confident dry
15% 43% low confident dry
12% 43% low confident dry
11% 43% low confident dry
12% 57% low confident dry
12% 57% low confident dry
11% 43% low confident dry
10% 29% medium confident dry
10% 29% medium confident dry
3% 0% high confident dry
5% 14% high confident dry
6% 14% high confident dry
3% 0% high confident dry
4% 0% high confident dry

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill