WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain +48h

Per-station P(wet ≥ 0.1 mm/h) — 3a solid, 3c lighter — plus per-NWP precip rate (one chart, point forecast for Bonehill).

Precipitation — P(wet ≥ 0.1 mm/h)

Bellever Dartmoor

Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour n_h conf wet h amb h conf dry h
19% 19% at 22Z 3 0 0 0
12% 3% at 19Z 24 0 0 24
21% 8% at 10Z 24 0 5 19
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Confidence Conformal (90% set)
19% 29% medium —
19% 14% high —
19% 14% high —
21% 14% high confident dry
14% 14% high confident dry
7% 0% high confident dry
7% 0% high confident dry
8% 0% high confident dry
8% 0% high confident dry
13% 14% high confident dry
23% 43% low confident dry
20% 43% low confident dry
20% 43% low confident dry
17% 29% medium confident dry
14% 29% medium confident dry
13% 43% low confident dry
12% 43% low confident dry
5% 29% medium confident dry
6% 43% low confident dry
5% 29% medium confident dry
5% 29% medium confident dry
7% 43% low confident dry
3% 14% high confident dry
11% 14% high confident dry
12% 14% high confident dry
13% 14% high confident dry
14% 14% high confident dry
18% 29% medium confident dry
16% 14% high confident dry
10% 14% high confident dry
10% 14% high confident dry
16% 14% high confident dry
18% 29% medium confident dry
11% 14% high confident dry
21% 43% low confident dry
9% 29% medium confident dry
9% 29% medium confident dry
8% 43% low confident dry
8% 43% low confident dry
13% 43% low confident dry
20% 71% medium confident dry
41% 86% high ambiguous
39% 86% high ambiguous
46% 86% high ambiguous
40% 71% medium ambiguous
44% 71% medium ambiguous
22% 57% low confident dry
22% 43% low confident dry
22% 43% low confident dry
15% 29% medium confident dry
14% 29% medium confident dry

Bovey Tracey

Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour n_h conf wet h amb h conf dry h
16% 2% at 02Z 24 0 5 19
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Confidence Conformal (90% set)
9% 29% medium confident dry
7% 14% high confident dry
2% 14% high confident dry
2% 14% high confident dry
3% 14% high confident dry
5% 29% medium confident dry
3% 14% high confident dry
11% 43% low confident dry
4% 29% medium confident dry
4% 29% medium confident dry
4% 43% low confident dry
4% 43% low confident dry
7% 43% low confident dry
26% 71% medium confident dry
40% 86% high ambiguous
36% 86% high ambiguous
55% 86% high ambiguous
44% 71% medium ambiguous
50% 71% medium ambiguous
12% 57% low confident dry
13% 43% low confident dry
15% 43% low confident dry
9% 29% medium confident dry
12% 29% medium confident dry

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour n_h conf wet h amb h conf dry h
17% 15% at 23Z 3 0 0 0
11% 3% at 19Z 24 0 0 24
19% 8% at 02Z 24 0 5 19
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Confidence Conformal (90% set)
20% 29% medium —
15% 14% high —
15% 14% high —
14% 14% high confident dry
11% 14% high confident dry
6% 0% high confident dry
6% 0% high confident dry
6% 0% high confident dry
6% 0% high confident dry
16% 14% high confident dry
21% 43% low confident dry
20% 43% low confident dry
17% 43% low confident dry
13% 29% medium confident dry
12% 29% medium confident dry
16% 43% low confident dry
13% 43% low confident dry
6% 29% medium confident dry
8% 43% low confident dry
5% 29% medium confident dry
5% 29% medium confident dry
8% 43% low confident dry
3% 14% high confident dry
10% 14% high confident dry
10% 14% high confident dry
13% 14% high confident dry
13% 14% high confident dry
15% 29% medium confident dry
13% 14% high confident dry
8% 14% high confident dry
10% 14% high confident dry
13% 14% high confident dry
13% 29% medium confident dry
10% 14% high confident dry
23% 43% low confident dry
11% 29% medium confident dry
12% 29% medium confident dry
12% 43% low confident dry
11% 43% low confident dry
16% 43% low confident dry
23% 71% medium confident dry
43% 86% high ambiguous
44% 86% high ambiguous
45% 86% high ambiguous
31% 71% medium ambiguous
33% 71% medium ambiguous
13% 57% low confident dry
20% 43% low confident dry
18% 43% low confident dry
11% 29% medium confident dry
12% 29% medium confident dry

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill