WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rain forecast +24h

Per-station P(wet ≥ 0.1 mm/h) on top with the per-NWP PoP overlay (Phase 3a champion in deep purple, Phase 3c challenger in lighter purple), then the per-NWP precip rate (mm/h) at the Bonehill point — only once because the NWP forecasts don't differ between gauge stations.

Precipitation — P(wet ≥ 0.1 mm/h) vs NWP inputs

Per-station P(wet) on top, plus climatology and per-NWP PoP overlay. The NWP precip rate (mm/h) chart sits below — only once, because the per-NWP forecasts are point values for Bonehill that don't differ per gauge station.

Bellever Dartmoor

Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour n_h conf wet h amb h conf dry h
5% 2% at 20Z 7 0 0 7
6% 1% at 19Z 24 0 0 24
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Confidence Conformal (90% set)
5% 29% medium confident dry
9% 43% low confident dry
5% 14% high confident dry
2% 0% high confident dry
3% 0% high confident dry
4% 14% high confident dry
4% 0% high confident dry
3% 0% high confident dry
5% 14% high confident dry
5% 14% high confident dry
6% 14% high confident dry
12% 29% medium confident dry
12% 29% medium confident dry
13% 29% medium confident dry
5% 14% high confident dry
4% 14% high confident dry
4% 14% high confident dry
8% 29% medium confident dry
7% 29% medium confident dry
8% 29% medium confident dry
7% 43% low confident dry
5% 43% low confident dry
5% 43% low confident dry
4% 29% medium confident dry
7% 57% low confident dry
7% 43% low confident dry
1% 0% high confident dry
2% 0% high confident dry
2% 0% high confident dry
2% 0% high confident dry
2% 0% high confident dry

Bovey Tracey

Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour n_h conf wet h amb h conf dry h
3% 1% at 19Z 24 0 0 24
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Confidence Conformal (90% set)
2% 0% high confident dry
2% 14% high confident dry
2% 14% high confident dry
3% 14% high confident dry
8% 29% medium confident dry
9% 29% medium confident dry
8% 29% medium confident dry
4% 14% high confident dry
2% 14% high confident dry
3% 14% high confident dry
4% 29% medium confident dry
4% 29% medium confident dry
4% 29% medium confident dry
4% 43% low confident dry
3% 43% low confident dry
3% 43% low confident dry
3% 29% medium confident dry
4% 57% low confident dry
4% 43% low confident dry
1% 0% high confident dry
1% 0% high confident dry
1% 0% high confident dry
2% 0% high confident dry
2% 0% high confident dry

Dartmoor Nr Hexworthy

Date (UTC) Mean P(wet) Driest hour n_h conf wet h amb h conf dry h
7% 3% at 20Z 7 0 0 7
7% 3% at 19Z 24 0 0 24
Hourly P(wet) + NWP agreement
Valid time P(wet) NWPs wet Confidence Conformal (90% set)
7% 29% medium confident dry
12% 43% low confident dry
9% 14% high confident dry
3% 0% high confident dry
4% 0% high confident dry
7% 14% high confident dry
5% 0% high confident dry
5% 0% high confident dry
9% 14% high confident dry
7% 14% high confident dry
8% 14% high confident dry
11% 29% medium confident dry
12% 29% medium confident dry
11% 29% medium confident dry
6% 14% high confident dry
6% 14% high confident dry
5% 14% high confident dry
6% 29% medium confident dry
6% 29% medium confident dry
6% 29% medium confident dry
8% 43% low confident dry
8% 43% low confident dry
7% 43% low confident dry
5% 29% medium confident dry
9% 57% low confident dry
13% 43% low confident dry
3% 0% high confident dry
3% 0% high confident dry
4% 0% high confident dry
3% 0% high confident dry
3% 0% high confident dry

NWP precip rate (mm/h) — point forecast at Bonehill