WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Skill — rain
P(wet) vs observed wet hours, then rolling Brier per phase.
P(wet) vs observed wet-hour
Blue bands = observed wet hours (≥ 0.1 mm). MO Spot PoP uses a looser "any measurable precip" threshold — read it as direction-of-effect.
Bovey Tracey
Phase 3o (rich+oro)
Phase 3c (rich)
Phase 3a (lean)
Phase 3d (exact-runtime)
Phase 4a (BART)
Phase 4b (mean)
Phase 3oni (oro, no-id)
Phase comparison — +24h lead
Rolling Brier (P(wet))
Bovey Tracey — 30-day rolling Brier per (version, lead). Lower better.