WeatherBlend
Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor
Wind +48h
Blender speed forecasts on top — champion (ERA5-truth), wind_speed_lgb (Dunkeswell-truth, with its shaded 90% prediction band — conformal- calibrated quantile regression), and wind_blend (their equal-weight mean), plus the wind_gust_lgb gust line. Raw per-NWP inputs below. Per-hour direction circles at the bottom show the latest day this lead predicts; each wedge spans the wind_mvn 80% direction credible arc (calibrated on validation). wind_mvn is direction-only — its speed output was retired 2026-06-09.
Wind speed — our blend
NWP wind speed forecasts
Wind direction
Latest day at +48h: Thu 06 Aug 2026 (UTC; hours 05–19)
05Z
12 mph
06Z
12 mph
07Z
12 mph
08Z
13 mph
09Z
14 mph
10Z
14 mph
11Z
14 mph
12Z
16 mph
13Z
16 mph
14Z
14 mph
15Z
14 mph
16Z
17 mph
17Z
14 mph
18Z
13 mph
19Z
14 mph