WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Wind +48h

Blender speed forecasts on top — champion (ERA5-truth), wind_speed_lgb (Dunkeswell-truth, with its shaded 90% prediction band — conformal- calibrated quantile regression), and wind_blend (their equal-weight mean), plus the wind_gust_lgb gust line. Raw per-NWP inputs below. Per-hour direction circles at the bottom show the latest day this lead predicts; each wedge spans the wind_mvn 80% direction credible arc (calibrated on validation). wind_mvn is direction-only — its speed output was retired 2026-06-09.

Wind speed — our blend

NWP wind speed forecasts

Wind direction

Latest day at +48h: Mon 22 Jun 2026 (UTC; hours 05–19)

05Z
N
10 mph
06Z
N
13 mph
07Z
N
18 mph
08Z
N
15 mph
09Z
N
15 mph
10Z
N
24 mph
11Z
N
17 mph
12Z
N
18 mph
13Z
N
22 mph
14Z
N
16 mph
15Z
N
13 mph
16Z
N
8 mph
17Z
N
13 mph
18Z
N
9 mph
19Z
VAR
2 mph