WeatherBlend

Multi-model forecast blending for Bonehill Rocks, Dartmoor

Rainfall skill

Eyeball first: P(wet) trajectories against a 0/1 wet-hour indicator from the same ≥ 0.1 mm threshold the blender was trained on. Dry-window predicted vs observed verdict follows. Stations sit on separate EA gauges, so flip between them via the sub-nav.

P(wet) vs observed wet-hour

P(wet) is the blender's probability that the next hour sees ≥ 0.1 mm. Truth is plotted as discrete dots at 0 (dry) or 1 (wet) using that same 0.1 mm threshold, so the only meaningful comparison at any hour is where P(wet) sits relative to the dot — a connecting line would imply non-existent intermediate states. Hours with fewer than 4 of 4 15-min readings are dropped to avoid flipping wet↔dry at the boundary.

Bellever Dartmoor

Phase 3a (lean)
P(wet) vs observed wet-hour — Bellever Dartmoor — Phase 3a1.050.830.610.390.17-0.0503-25 11Z04-01 01Z04-07 15Z04-14 05Z04-20 19Z04-27 10ZTime (UTC)P(wet) / observed wet-hourP(wet) +24hP(wet) +48hP(wet) +72hObserved wet hour (≥ 0.1 mm)
Phase 3c (rich)
P(wet) vs observed wet-hour — Bellever Dartmoor — Phase 3c1.050.830.610.390.17-0.0503-25 11Z04-01 01Z04-07 15Z04-14 05Z04-20 19Z04-27 10ZTime (UTC)P(wet) / observed wet-hourP(wet) +24hP(wet) +48hP(wet) +72hObserved wet hour (≥ 0.1 mm)
Three-way comparison — +24h lead
3a vs 3a_isotonic vs 3c vs observed — Bellever Dartmoor — +24h1.050.830.610.390.17-0.0503-25 11Z03-31 15Z04-06 20Z04-13 00Z04-19 05Z04-25 10ZTime (UTC)P(wet) / observed wet-hourPhase 3a (champion)Phase 3c (challenger)Observed wet hour (≥ 0.1 mm)

Dry window — predicted vs observed

One row per target UTC day × window length. The "observed" column is blank for dates beyond the last full rainfall day.

3-hour dry window
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
1.00—— —
1.000.99— —
—1.000.99 —
——1.00 —
4-hour dry window
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
1.00—— —
1.000.98— —
—1.000.98 —
——0.98 —
6-hour dry window
Target date (UTC) +24h +48h +72h Observed
0.95—— —
1.000.97— —
—1.000.97 —
——1.00 —